From your failure to respond I assume none of the stocks you mentioned are threatening to burn the Short positions via substantial increases in market cap by year end.
You say -
"The street might fear that larger investments will be steered to new projects (liquid biopsy, bladder cancer etc.) that will delay the return on investment."
The 10-K filed in March does support a cautious outlook -
[ We recorded a net loss of $24.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2014, compared to a net loss of $12.8 million and net income of $8.2 million for the years ended December 31, 2013 and 2012, respectively. ]
[ We expect our expense levels to continue to increase for the foreseeable future as we seek to globally expand the clinical utility of our Onco type DX breast cancer test, drive adoption of and reimbursement for our Onco type DX colon cancer and prostate cancer tests and develop and commercialize new tests, including tests based on blood or urine specimens. As a result, we will need to generate significant growth in revenues in order to achieve sustained profitability. ]
You say -
"The inflection point I have mentioned is on target for the 3rd Qtr with 4th quartter profitability, finally!"
What level of revenue are you expecting in Q4?
And how are you expecting that to impact the share price?
You can assess nothing from "the street" on such a thinly traded stock. The company is completely controlled by its investors who understand the GHDX value. They don't care what the price is today. A stock with a price less than 3 times revenues and no debt with expanding markets is held up for only one reason. The BOD meets next week. Good Luck
I've noticed that for quite a while that GHDX press releases are met with a shrug. I can't think of too many that have had a lasting effect on the share price. The problem is a little bit like the Amazon effect. GHDX contends that they are hiring marketing staff and training them to build a platform to address a critical need/large market opportunity. The Street is saying we've seen the PR now show us that GHDX will actually be profitable. I think it will take a couple good profitable quarters to prove that the corner has been turned. The street might fear that larger investments will be steered to new projects (liquid biopsy, bladder cancer etc.) that will delay the return on investment.
Fully agree with your assessment. I just don't understand why GHDX stock price has dropped so far when it has such a promising and cost saving product, not to mention its use in preventing patients from undergoing horrid treatments that may not be effective for their genetic subpopulation.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Oncotype DX at ASCO in Breast and Prostate Cancer Reinforce Genomic Health's Leadership in Optimizing Cancer Treatment
New Data Include Two Positive Studies in DCIS Breast Cancer and Report of Baseline Characteristics in NCI's TAILORx Trial Examining Oncotype DX across Race and Ethnicity
announced results from multiple Oncotype DX studies presented at the 2015 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting. The presentations reinforce the robustness of the Oncotype DX tests across invasive breast cancer, ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and prostate cancer, which, to date, have helped guide treatment decisions for more than half a million patients worldwide.
Two DCIS Studies Reinforce Independent Value of Oncotype DX DCIS Score™
A secondary analysis from the second large validation study conducted by the Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Ontario evaluated the DCIS Score™ result as a predictor of local recurrence in 718 patients treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS) alone with any surgical margin width. The analysis showed that, in all patients regardless of margin status, the DCIS Score result was significantly associated with the 10-year risk of local recurrence (p < 0.001). These results underscore the value of the DCIS Score result in providing unique tumor biology information that is not readily apparent by margin status alone.
A separate secondary analysis evaluated the correlation between the DCIS Score result and clinicopathologic features, such as age, tumor size, nuclear grade and multifocality. The results from 571 women with DCIS who had BCS alone and clear margins showed that the DCIS Score result quantifies risk of local recurrence independent of clinicopathologic features, reconfirming previous findings from the ECOG-ACRIN Cancer Research Group clinical validation study.
BioLargo’s (BLGO) AOS filter has been repeatedly validated by researchers at the University of Alberta to decontaminate and disinfect water 100 times better, 10 times faster, and at 1/20th the cost of closest competing technology.
BioLargo has been invited to be an NSERC chair member to help decontaminate massive tailings ponds in Canada.
BioLargo sits on this chair along with Suncor, Syncrude, Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Total, Epcor, Alberta Innovates, Alberta Environment and the University of Alberta.
The AOS Filter is the biggest breakthrough in water treatment in history and will be showcased this August to major industry executives.
The showcase will demonstrate the unprecedented results of the AOS Filter and the data the industry is looking for and will explode share prices.
Walter Schindler just joined BioLargo as a key strategic advisor.
When the story leaks out shares will explode. Shares are a steal at anything under $1.00
12 month price target $3
24 month price target $20
Sentiment: Strong Buy
For comparison purposes you suggest BIOC, FMI, EXAS and MYGN.
Which of those four currently has a miniscule market cap compared to its opportunity - despite being within six months of the single most important milestone in its development?
The short position (approx 12.5%) is not especially large as a % of the float. For comparison purposes BIOC is 10.5%, FMI is 21.7%, EXAS is 37.5% and MYGN is 40%. I think the short position represents skeptics that are saying prove GHDX can be profitable. Most the numbers you mention predate the Palmetto anouncement. The path to profitability on the back of prostate test billing code approval (at least for medicare) is becoming increasingly defined. You would think that would prompt some to cover. Perhaps they beleive that the test will be reimbursed at a far lower rate. However, this is risky since the EXAS colon cancer test reimbursement was much higher than many thought (pretty much what the company had requested). The Onco DX prostate cancer test has similar potentialto surprise on the upside as far as the reimbursement rate. More likely, the shorts maybe anticipating negative public comments will be launched by entrenched interest parties that benefit from overtreatment of prostate cancer. I think the approval process will see through this type of an attack, if it is not based on strong science.
The high MYGN short position may actially reflect a weakening position. They had touted prostate as a pillar of their future growth. The Prolaris approval did not come in as anticipated early this year and now it appears that they will face stiffer competition from GHDX.
I will be surprised if the GHDX short position does not decrease by the beginning of August when the public comment period is over and the reimbursement rate is established. Private insurers will be likely to follow suit once the Medicare coding is in place.
Guess I would not read too much into the short position since it is not oversized. The short positions will drop once a clear pathway to profitability is demonstrated.
The Short position reported for mid-May was 2,303,480 shares.
Although far better than the 3,000,000-plus at the end of last year, from mid-April the Short position increased by 5%.
You believe "the market cap is miniscule compared to the opportunity".
Even when a pre-profitability market cap is reasonable, achieving profitability still normally warrants a substantial increase. Yet the entity which sold over 700,000 shares in four trades early this week had to drop the price to $27.
How do you reconcile the lack of urgency in covering the Short position with your projection of profitability by Q4 this year?
yes , for what indication ? - )) GHDX prostate and breast cancer test will be on market next year.Good luck to BIOC and their data results in the future
Looks like GHDX is cranking up the PR going ionto ASCO. Why not. Most investors are trained on Pharma and biopharma products that may extend survival for a few more months. What is truely lacking are tools that help provide actionable data to determine which treatment option is best for a given subpopulation. This is especially true for prostate cancer. I don't think most investors truely appreciate the need for actionable treatment data such as provided by OncoDX.
The inflection point I have mentioned is on target for the 3rd Qtr with 4th quartter profitability, finally! Volume uptic is often a precurssor to share price gains. My biggest concern is the overall market and external events. As I mentioned before, wringing cost savings out of the health care system will be the theme of the next couple decades. Retirement of the baby boom generation leaves no choice but to issue smart cost controls. GHDX is positioning to be a major provider in this area. The market cap is miniscule compared to the opportunity and the float can shrivle up if a few big players decide they want in. That said, I would not be surprised if another downdraft or two occur as minipulators try to trigger stop loss selling.
Multiple Oncotype DX(R) Presentations at the American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting Highlight Genomic Health's Leadership in Personalizing Breast, Prostate Cancer Care
" results from four Oncotype DX® studies will be presented at the 2015 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting, which will take place May 29-June 2 at McCormick Place in Chicago. abstracts are now available at asco abstracts site
Genomic Health, Inc. (Nasdaq: GHDX) today announced that Brad Cole, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, will present at the Jefferies 2015 Global Healthcare Conference in New York City on Monday, June 1 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (ET).
To access the live and subsequently archived webcast of the presentation, go to the Investor Relations section of the company's web site
Although this morning's big seller had to drop his asking price to $27 to find demand for 350,000 shares, the purchase of only 400 shares took the price back over $27.50. That would seem to confirm that the actual number of shareholders looking to sell is small.
352k cover this morning .... I suspect GHDX will get the top notch covering as they did in Europe ( NICE ) .... I found that interesting that Polaris didnt get it.
Anybody have access to this technical Journal.
Studies see value of Prolaris cancer diagnostic test, but will CMS pay for it? Am J Manag Care. 2014;20(SP11):(SP323-SP327).
Obviously a rainy Memorial Day
But the draft coverage determination is far from a slam dunk for Myriad. Next up is a public comment period, which will run from Nov. 10 through Dec. 25. A Myriad spokesman said during the comment period, the company will provide information it believes will support coverage of the Prolaris test for all patients, not just those at the lowest risk.
If the CMS approves national coverage for Prolaris, it wouldn't go into effect until next year at the earliest. Myriad's spokesman said the company will detail potential financial ramifications during its first-quarter call with investors in a few weeks.
This is interesting since Myriad expected approval in February but still does not have it at the end of May. Increased competition now looms with Onco DX out for public comment, I'm concerned that Onco Dx might run into a similar delay, As I have mentioned before, there are alot of entrenched interests tat benefit from the overtreatment of prostate cancer (robotic surgery, proton beam radiation manufactuers, etc.) You can bet there are some public comments that are self serving.
Medicare considers national coverage for new prostate cancer test
By Bob Herman | October 18, 2014
Medicare will begin initial coverage for a genetic prostate cancer test and will consider national coverage. A Medicare administrative contractor, Palmetto GBA, said it will pay for a diagnostic test that evaluates prostate cancer risk in men, and the nation's largest payer will reach out to healthcare stakeholders to see if the test should be covered nationwide.
Prostate cancer is the second-most common cancer in American men. Approximately 28,000 men died from prostate cancer in 2011, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Several stipulations apply to covering Prolaris, a genetic prostate cancer test developed by publicly traded biotechnology company Myriad Genetics. According to a local coverage determination proposed by the CMS, Medicare will only cover Prolaris for prostate cancer patients who are considered low risk or very low risk. Patients also must have a life expectancy of at least 10 years, and the test must be ordered by a certified physician within Myriad's database.
Prolaris is different from standard early-stage prostate cancer screenings. The common test measures the blood level of a protein called prostate-specific antigen (PSA), to determine the severity of a potential tumor. Prolaris, which was launched in 2010 and costs $3,400, examines prostate tumor risks by analyzing 46 genes in a man's DNA.
PSA tests have been widely criticized by physician groups and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force because they can lead to false positives, which can result in unnecessary treatment and consequent health complications. Genetic tests, on the other hand, have been viewed favorably by some industry observers.
Salt Lake City-based Myriad, a big player in the field, also produces a popular genetic test for breast cancer.