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Frontline Ltd. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Cuba

    by lakeed98 18 hours ago

    As I said earlier Mr. george, Castro tried to get help from the US financially, because he needed money, as much of the wealth of Cuba fled with the families that left and they took the wealth out of Cuba. That is familiar, as that is what Marcos and Somoza did leaving a country with little money. Castro got in bed with Khrushchev, because Eisenhower and Kennedy wouldn't give financial aid and he needed it. That is how allies happen. Russia gave Castro money to start his govt. and in return they got access. We did the same in Nicaragua and Philippines.

  • Reply to

    Make a bearish case for FRO

    by eightydelta 10 hours ago

    China has purchased a lot of aircraft. They need a lot of jet fuel.
    China has purchased a lot of diesel locomotives. They need a lot of diesel fuel.
    China is building an interstate hiway system. China needs a lot of gasoline and diesel.
    China has the largest Automotive market in the world now. China needs a lot of gasoline.
    China has a growing electricity shortage. Their filling the gap with coal and diesel powered generators, until the 38 nuclear plants get built. After Fukushima, they slowed down the nuclear power plant construction. China needs more fossile fuels.
    This is not stock piling; this is consumption. China's thurst for oil is now greater than a Texan oil man looking for lose women in Vegas.

    Sorry for China, probably 1/5th of that crude will go into strategic reserve.

    Question: why is Obama not buying cheap oil to replace the 70 million barrels of crude oil he took out a few years ago?

  • lakeed, its my time to correct you. I look at Lloyds daily. The BCIY is the clean tanker index (gas and diesel) and the BDIY is the baltic dirty tanker (crude oil) index.

  • Reply to

    Cuba Solar

    by lakeed98 13 hours ago

    May not be just radio waves. Could be sonar too. By the way rocket scientist, were do we launch space craft? The Cape?

  • Reply to

    Make a bearish case for FRO

    by eightydelta 10 hours ago

    Because the pink lipstick didn't look good on the pig.

    OINK OINK

  • Reply to

    Make a bearish case for FRO

    by eightydelta 10 hours ago

    Hi Mr. Bieber,

    So, are you saying that you expect the high demand for tankers driving the high spot rates shall continue for an extended period of time? Perhaps a year or more? Maybe much more?

    I am thinking it is very difficult to play the contango game by buying oil, storing in tankers, then selling 2-6 months in the future, with $90,000+/day VLCC tanker rates. You can do it for awhile while the contango is extreme, but then that calendar spread will shrink.

    So, real demand will expand because the oil is so cheap, that they will need even more tankers? I am not thinking that the demand will increase that much.

    We shall see.

    I don't expect these high rates to last for that long. End of 2nd qtr 2015 I think we will be back down to earth.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    Cuba

    by lakeed98 18 hours ago

    castro was supported by the kgb before even landing in cuba. documented.

  • Reply to

    Cuba

    by lakeed98 18 hours ago

    your facts are incorrect. dig a little deeper. cuba had a strong economy before castro took over. the US helped him take over cuba, at first. batista did not get strong support. castro walked in with barely a struggle, and at first pretended to not be communist. then things changed... the standard history we're fed about cuba is all untrue. ever wonder why so many actual, real live Cuban people fled the country, and now have such a big grudge against castro? talk to a few of them, if you have an open mind

  • news.yahooDOTKOM/governor-abandons-single-payer-health-care-plan-225042240.html

    MONTPELIER, Vt. (AP) — Calling it the biggest disappointment of his career, Gov. Peter Shumlin said Wednesday he was abandoning plans to make Vermont the first state in the country with a universal, publicly funded health care system.

    Going forward with a project four years in the making would require tax increases too big for the state to absorb, Shumlin said. The measure had been the centerpiece of the Democratic governor's agenda and was watched and rooted for by single-payer health care supporters around the country.

    "I am not going (to) undermine the hope of achieving critically important health care reforms for this state by pushing prematurely for single payer when it is not the right time for Vermont," Shumlin said to reporters and two boards advising him on health care changes.

    Legislation Shumlin signed in 2011 put the state on a path to move beyond the federal Affordable Care Act by 2017 to a health care system more similar to that in neighboring Canada. Shumlin adopted the mantra that access to quality health care should be "a right and not a privilege."

    The legislation called for the administration to produce a plan for financing the Green Mountain Care system by 2013 but it wasn't completed until the last several days. Shumlin said it showed the plan would require an 11.5 percent payroll tax on businesses and an income tax separate from the one the state already has of up to 9.5 percent.

    Shumlin said small business owners would be hit with both, and he repeatedly expressed concern about whether those businesses, many of which now don't offer health insurance or offer much less costly insurance, could cover the new expense.

    The governor said he had asked his health care team for alternative designs, but no one could come up with a plan to offer quality coverage at an affordable cost.

  • Reply to

    Make a bearish case for FRO

    by eightydelta 10 hours ago

    Interesting perspective but I think you have the market's response backwards. China is quadrupling their strategic reserve so yes, they are the primary buyer in the market at the moment. When the Chinese finish their operation, oil demand will drop yet supply will grow - this will have a steepening affect on the forward curves because of the immediate supply build. This steepening of the contango will open storage opportunities.

    Given the supply situation going forward, it's even more probable that we witness a similar contango to that of 2008-9. The Chinese removing their bid from the market could be the best thing for tanker rates. The supply side has shown no willingness to slow down their exports.

  • mms,I think FRO will rise on positive earnings if rates hold up.
    I know this about the Chinese oil reserve.The first phase was complete in Nov.2014.That was a total of 91 million barrels.Phase 2 is about 191 million barrels. They started filling phase 2 in late Nov.It is now 12/17 and with the amount they have already imported and the number of tankers en route it should be getting close to full.At any rate it won't take long.
    Glta

  • Reply to

    Make a bearish case for FRO

    by eightydelta 10 hours ago

    "With time, the global storage facilities will be filled "
    Mr Shores,
    Let me just say that I look forward to reading your comments. In the above note you are simply wrong! You fail to understand how cheap oil manifests in everyday life.

  • Reply to

    Make a bearish case for FRO

    by eightydelta 10 hours ago

    Hi Mr. Delta,

    I thought this pop up was a given with the spot rates as they are and the 10.5% shares short.

    Here's the thing, China and others are taking all the oil they can get. At the same time, all the countries/companies are pumping as hard as they can to sell their oil at current "higher" prices than the current price trend predicts. With all these folks taking oil, they cannot take the full global production, so prices continue to fall. There's lots of oil out there. With time, the global storage facilities will be filled much more than all time highs. When this happens, the extra demand will shrink, and the need for shipping will shrink as well. This is assuming that producers don't collaborate and pull production first. Same end result for tanker owners/operators.

    Then, we will be in a position of having even more too many tankers in the sector, and spot rates will collapse once again.

    Any contango will only suck up a few tankers. But, I think last time this happened, we ended up in backwardation.

    The good news. The really really good news, is that Frontline is going to make some serious cash going into their April Bond maturity. After somehow clearing that out, They will still be heavily loaded with debt, but they won't have this short term run out of cash problem.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Simple math
    China has an average daily oil comsumption at 10 mil barrels, Japan has about 4.7 mil barrels and South Korea has 2.3 mil barrels. These three countries spend about 17 mil barrels (US ~ 18.5 mil barrels) per day
    China has has SPR at 684 mil barrels followed by Japan at 583 mil and South Korea at 286 mil. (total 1.5 billion barrels)
    Article said 166 mil barrels heading to china. That's about 15 days worth of crude.
    At the current crude price, these three countries will fill up their SPR and the question is how much they will fill up. I believe this will determine the VLCC rate in near future.

  • Lakeed,
    Do you have proof China's reserves are close to full, or is that your oppinion? Even if they were, China is not the only country buying up oil at this price! IMO 14 Q4 earnings on this are going to be the best they have had in years and the 15 Q1 earning will be even better. Beyond that it is anyones guess but this stock will with out a doubt rise off positive earning reports. Do you think differently?

  • Reply to

    Make a bearish case for FRO

    by eightydelta 10 hours ago

    I don't think anyone realizes the implications of crude oil in contango with prices falling and supply rising. I don't care who did the debt/equity swap, I just care about why. To me it suggests an exchange of a fixed rate asset for equity asset with more upside.

  • Reply to

    Make a bearish case for FRO

    by eightydelta 10 hours ago

    So please tell the board why FRO did not have a good day today markets rally tankers rates amazingly high yes could not manage to close green?

  • Here we have some of the highest day rates in years, longer hauls, low interest rates, crude oil in contango, cheap bunkers, tight capacity, increasing crude oil supply, busy Atlantic product arbitrage, and the prospect of a weakening US export ban. Russia is increasing energy exports 6.6% qoq in Q115 while Saudi, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, and Azerbaijan are slashing crude prices and China is the primary buyer in the market. What happens when China stops buying and the supply increases steepen the contango? Crude oil spreads will widen and encourage storage on tankers. The Dubai/Oman forward curve is already encouraging storage. This will tighten capacity further. As rates rise, asset and newbuild values will rise.

    Q4 earnings will be great. Q115 earnings will be stellar. Q2 you're too late. If you ever wanted to buy a cheap asset at the birth of it's next great bull cycle, now is your chance.

    Tell me why I'm wrong.

    Full disclosure, I very long FRO and getting bidding more every day. I am also long ASC, TNK, and NAT.

  • Reply to

    Cuba

    by lakeed98 18 hours ago

    Buster,our policy toward Cuba is no longer run by a bunch of old Cuban boat people who you would of deported or not let in our country in the first place.
    FYI:56% of Americans are in favor of what President Obama did.

  • Reply to

    Cuba Solar

    by lakeed98 13 hours ago

    Why would Russia use oil rigs to pick up signals when their satellites work just fine?
    Offshore oil drilling has had bad results in Cuba.

FRO
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