Typical end of week sell off throughout the market. Monday shall be in the green as China-Europe level off. Most important ER throughout market done and investors shall chew on this weeks downs over the weekend. 17 more trading days until Frontline ER and possible news of merger before. IMO time to hold, enjoy, summer days, and prepare for positive upgrades and PPS. Have a great weekend.
"there is definitely some downward momentum"
FRO price yesterday and today has been downward, but it is now equal to 5 days ago. I hesitate to say it has momentum in either direction at the moment...
rami is it so hard to knock FRO as it sets above 3 bucks instead of when it was at 2.25 do the math rami that is a profit of 33% in a month. Oh you missed it did you? To bad but I didn't :) I told you to buy but did you? Nope so now you are trashing again. You must love to short or trying to lessen your short losses. You better cover and buy with the money you have left because FRO will see 4 bucks before 2.50.
I think you are in luck ,because i believe it will hit $3.50 before earnings. But short term i afraid it can pull back between $2,24 and $2.50. Sorry but its just the way i look at the 2 year chart.
Thanks for commenting on the rates. I wish someone knew of a free way to get such news :(
The Baltic Exchange estimated the trade lane's time charter equivalent (TCE) rate at $74,900 today. FromTradewinds
A softer attitude based on market developments, rather than a dramatic change of heart
THIS reporter’s ears pricked up when Euronav chief executive Paddy Rodgers said Thursday that some people watch the newbuilding orderbook for very large crude carriers too obsessively.
People who object to new orders being added to the orderbook do not see that oil demand is rising, which should soak up new tonnage, explained Mr Rodgers.
On top of that, orderbook obsessives don’t factor in delivery dates. The new vessels will be delivered at different dates in different years, meeting new and changing demand requirements, rather than all the ships being plonked into the live fleet at the same time.
Was this the same Paddy Rodgers that said a year ago in Posidonia that “the most dangerous place for shipowner is the shipyard… so let’s focus on the fleet we have and try to get some return on capital”?
Before we get carried away and think he’s done a U-turn, the softer approach to building new ships does not indicate that the Euronav chief executive is advocating a rush to the yards.
The company has itself stayed away from initiating orders with the yards, only expanding its VLCC fleet through secondhand purchases, and more recently buying four newbuilding contracts held by Greece’s Metrostar.
Perhaps these four newbuilding resales have contributed to Euronav’s more relaxed attitude to other owners’ vessel ordering activities.
After all, Euronav has benefited by buying the newbuilding contracts from Metrostar at a price of $384m, with an option for a further four for $98m each and an $8m fee.
As Mr Rodgers said Thursday, “it was a very good transaction for Euronav”.
The new vessels will bring down the average age of Euronav’s large fleet, making it more attractive to charterers.
Having sealed such a tidy deal, one can assume that similar deals could be looked at. An interest in picking up newbuilding contracts from other owners would, therefore, make railing against new orders sound rather hollow.
A second reason for the new, more emollient attitude, is the fact that newbuilding ordering has been relatively modest.
Other owners have not been rushing headlong to the yards. Restraint has been exercised, compared with previous years of epic overbuilding.
VLCC fleet growth of 2%-4% for the next two years “is modest and manageable” due to rising demand and longer sailing distances, said Mr Rodgers.
A final factor that could be shaping the softer approach to building is the booming freight market.
Although many expected this year to bring periods of high spot earnings for the big tankers, many in the industry have been surprised by how these earnings have been sustained.
A downward — and long overdue — correction in rates is occurring now, but a return to recent high levels is fully expected given the healthy fundamentals driving the market.
With projections of VLCC freight market strength stretching out for at least a couple of years, and quite possibly more, it is hardly surprising that one might forgive a few newbuilding orders here and there.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I haven't followed PSEC, but I do own some ORC shares. Both give monthly dividends. Both have declined in value this year. ORC dropped dramatically since mid June and (I believe) is poised to rise again while continuing to issue a nice dividend. Current price is below 9 with a book value over 12. Do your own due diligence if you are interested, and let me know what you think. Good luck bobby!
This sounds about right, EURN out with there results this morning, and they are great, but still the stock sells off. And since EURN has roughly the same as FRO in ships but fro with 5x the shares (though fro bigger with ships under management I believe) so EURN on pace to earn 2.28eps for 4Q's, which puts FRO at .45-.55eps.
Seems with the sell off of great EURN earnings and FRO and NAT that the market simply does not believe yet that the rates are sustainable past a year or two, since market giving is now giving EURN less than 7pe for this years earnings. 7x ~.5 for FRO would be a 3.50 share price if the .45-.5 are true (though could be more, we just do not know yet until merged and numbers out). Of course NAV means these are still undervalued too and should be trading 2x book IMO. Guess will just take longer to inch up the PE expectations.
Glad to hear that, Dan. I was pretty much doing like that and then I saw this mega-shark. These guys put the Mafia out of the loan-shark business! Then they went public and investors flocked to them. I watched as they turned and ATE their investors. So, I'm right on their tail gobbling up the 'leftover' 15% monthly divi.
Have a nice day, my friend.
I will certainly buy more below 3, if FRO goes that way, and keep building on the way down. I would like to build a nice position before the next big pop happens. I just don't want to build it in one day. Looking to sell above 3.50 this time.
Only fear is that it will fill that gap at $2.75. Still hoping for that large volume rise coming out of the flag that has formed. We shall see.