Yes I don't see them going under for sure, The dividend though is another story, it may cut a little bit. As for your token raise theory. That is good and bad. Look at NGL, they have been raising each quarter and just did it again. They got a little pop, but are nowhere near where they should be trading. Then you could look at WPC. They did token raises the last two quarters and frankly the stock is doing worse for it, because now it just looks like they are trying to keep their record intact while not raising the dividend.
Your points make more sense than mine. even at that, I do not see this outfit in danger of going under. I am pretty sure they will maintain the dividend so I am reinvesting at the low prices.
Maybe, but more likely at this point is margin selling upon margin selling as well as certain institutional owners are just dumping at any price.
Other MLP's did pretty well today and OKE/OKS are down big time. I think shareholders are concerned that the dividend was not raised by at least a token amount.
Price action was very strange today. Up early, and then just really dove the last couple of hours. I think buying near the end of the day today would have been a great entry point. I've already averaged down a few times and will now just watch
OKE/OKS both down big today with a marginal decrease in oil/gas prices
The big concern here is that this OPEC (Saudi Arabia) / shale oil stand off isn't going anywhere, and while U.S. production has maintained there are a lot of smaller companies feeling the pain and going BK. None of the OPEC members (or Russia, for that matter) are going to want to cut production in this environment unless there is some sort of concerted effort, and that's not going to happen. Hopefully we get something out of this OPEC/Russia meeting next week. Otherwise we can look forward to oil in the $40's (or lower) for some time to come, which is ultimately going to put a dent into the MLPs
On a positive note I'm becoming more bullish on gas even though there is a potential storage glut coming as LNG exports will start kicking in later this year
We all often hear, "Smart money is buying, holding or selling"....
For me I suggest the following when thinking about "Smart Money" with OKS....
1. Natural gas is a commodity that will always be in demand (in our life time)
2. OKE is one of the larest producers/sellers of this commodity
3. The company is managed well, and has always posted truthful guidance
4. There is a better than average chance of OKS being bought by OKE... just a matter of time
5. The stock is owned by many funds
6. The DIVVY (for now) is intact... and the next 2 Q's are when the revenue is coming in - so divvy is PROBABLY intact for remainder of year --- pending no natural diasaster, or something that cannot be predicted.
7. Recently, the stock is trading at extrememly low levels.... comparitively to the last 12-24 months
8. Management has not posted anything TOO concerning about the future
..... With this in mind, I suggest that Smart Money would be BUYING. You just have to look at in the longer run... not a quick turn.
Would love to hear your thoughts.... good or bad.
Thanks -- and Good Luck
Going to get ugly for the midstreams post EX. That is if it's not already ugly enough. Only time distributions/dividends are meaningful is IF the PPS does not keep falling.
On EX the PPS adjusts down the same amount as the distribution, thus at that point you have gained nothing. Best sit on cash until this sell off is over.
OKS is hedged for 4 dollars for NG for through 2015 (trading around 2.90 now) so they're fine for the rest of the year even if oil stays low. Since they are over 75% fee based (and increasing) my thinking is the distributions/forward projections are fairly safe. But even if they lose the hedge for 2016 and the price stays in the current range (which it has all year) the hit is only 50M (distributions are closer to 1B a year...meaning a few very small hit and one that will be dwarfed by other fee based projects coming on line).
I've been buying on the way down...averaging into a position of a tanking stock. I also plan to take the distributions and buy more anywhere under 40 dollars.
NG is usage is only going to grow in the US over time, completely replacing coal in electrical generation.
I surely think the market was pricing a cut in, but they are a pipeline, I think 75% of their income is fee based so that seems a bit overblown. However, Arp and LGCY also paid their distributions at the same level and they are yielding crazy numbers currently. The only catalyst I really see for OKE and OKS is they might get a nice little pop if WMB finally gets bought out or maybe they take the WMB original route and buy up the limited partner.
Well, to me this is good news. I was beginning to worry that a cut was in place. Hopefully, the news on August 4th will be positive and the buyers will come back.
Your thoughts please!
It's kind of strange right now. Some REIT's are selling for prices that will get you a 10% dividend going forward.
Maybe everyone wants to be in tech?
I'm OK with that....I already lived through one tech bubble, I"m not interested in living through another one.
Well I know its huge bear market for oil stocks and no one is immune from the blood bath. I have other oil stocks that are down 30-35% from their 52 week high but this is only one that's down close to 50% and that was my point. Anyways we will see what they have to say in their earnings release and we might see turn around soon.
Hopefully we will find out by Friday what the div will be. Not much insider action either. Shorts 2% OKS, OKE is 3.5%.
"Is Management sleeping"? If they are, so are all the other up & mid stream managements. This is not a one stock issue, it's the complete sector and no one is immune from the blood bath. A more meaningful question is why are you still holding? We are (it should be obvious by now) in a huge bear market with no bottom in view. When you have such a strong selling trend like this, taking a loss to save cash for a better day is smart investing. Not only are the risks high PPS going much lower, if and when it finds a bottom, you could be sitting on dead money with a locked in loss for several years. Praying for a cold Winter is not much of an option at this point. In a market like this, you want to be sitting on cash to use when time comes. It's not here yet for sure.