Happy labour day weekend Sarge et al !
Nice to see AVNR over $6 for a few days now, feels like we're on our way with many binary events on the near horizon!
I was going to say, this stockryder1 must be bigmbrown himself, otherwise he's as much a dumdumb as he is.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
LOL Hi dumbdumb. .. .haha . .face it, you'll never win. I'm to much better than you.. LOL
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Congo, in your last 4 week sample, notice the sequential growth of NRx,
" new prescriptions, a leading indicator of our business."
It looks like they are closer to 30,000 than 20,000 patients.
Does anyone know the average prescription size?
4 week pill count 1,000.000
4 week TRx average is 6,708 or 26,832 per month
4 week NRx average is 1,699
I calculate about 19 days or 38 pills per prescription or 26,000 patients.
Am I lying with statistics?
Does pill count include samples etc.?
Henry, everyone here knows YOU are the one mentally deranged. Just try to fit in.
Hi Henry! Any luck with your Strong Sell call in May?
I will buy at $3.50 pps! I don't use options at all however for those that do, now is the time to short!!!
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You are mentally deranged!!!!!
Basher-Congo, let use your current BASHING formula of 4 weeks of recent historical Nuedexta growth (-0.2%, -1.5%, +2.6%, +1.2%), which you concluded based on these 4 weeks of growth that one can extrapolate a quarterly run rate of 6.825%.
How about we use your formula say in 2 months, with potential Nuedexta growth at say (1.5%, 2.0%, 5%, 4%), which is a quarterly growth rate of 40.6%.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
“Gday has conveniently failed to factor in the fact that the co. added very significant numbers of sales reps in the past and the % growth rate continued to decline.”
Basher-Congo, doubling the sales reps from say 35 to 70 is VERY SIGNIFICANT? Avanir had a shoe-string budget due to the ANDA litigation uncertainty! Basher-Congo, let’s recap some comments from Rohan on 8/5/14:
“The NUEDEXTA franchise continues to grow entering its fourth year since launch, with revenues up approximately 40% versus the same quarter a year ago. We also saw acceleration of growth versus the last quarter with NUEDEXTA revenues up quarter-on-quarter by 9% and new prescriptions, a leading indicator of our business, up double-digits.”
There were a few challenges we had to overcome including over 15% vacancies in the field early in the quarter and continued challenges from managed care peers impacting these physicians and patients.
Specifically, we had the three largest Medicare Part D plans plays prior authorization restrictions in NUEDEXTA effective Jan 1. This resulted in our Tier-2 unrestricted coverage dropping from 58% to 34%.
Moving forward, we expect the long-term care segment of our franchise to the tune of historic growth trajectory due to the following reasons. First, we have filled all the vacancies and are currently down to historic levels for open sales territories. Second, we have obtained wins with three new Part D plans this past quarter and now approximately 40% of life have unrestricted Tier-2 coverage.
In June of this year, we hired 80 additional long-term care sales representatives bringing the size of the team to 160 representatives. This expansion will expand the reach of our long-term care team and allow us to call on homes that were previously not reached by the existing team. We anticipate that by the end of fiscal 2015, our reach would have increased from 33% to 65% allowing us to reap significantly more potential patients with PBA.
Retail is DOUBLING in Oct.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"Trade, has conveniently failed to factor in the future growth potential from DOUBLING the Long-Term Sales team that will be out in the field in September"
Gday has conveniently failed to factor in the fact that the co. added very significant numbers of sales reps in the past and the % growth rate continued to decline. In fact..i don't recall it ever even going up at all as a result of that. In addition It was supported at the time by a large scale TV commercial rollout and yet...?
We have about 20k patients today?
I would suspect that what some analysts who are now downgrading EPS estimates are concerned about is more of the same this time EXCEPT now we're much more diluted than before. In addition..script growth as a percentage has continued to decline to now be at the 6.8% level quarterly run rate based on the last 4wks data. And that is a BIG drop from the recent past where it was 9 to 10%. And this is supposed to be the period where everyone is all pumped up post litigation. You know folks..while Gday and others are bashing me the fact of the matter is...I'm only stating facts here as they're presenting themselves. I would much rather be reporting on positive happenings and be long this stock other than the sold puts I'm in but I simply have to let my dd and analysis lead me to wherever it might. There ARE positive events happening. Expected top line data being one. But that won't be revenue producing for years still. Onose..is a closer event but as much as I think it is a good product it's going to take a few yrs to get off the ground in a meaningful way IMO.
At THIS POINT.unless something tells me different...I am now predicting a 2 to 3 yr break even point.
I'm expecting MORE dilution. And I am cautioning on this stock at this point and personally valuing it more in the 4.50 to 5 range to account for these risks. What could CERTAINLY change the course of events for shareholders would be improved #'s. Or, a buyout. Just my HUMBLE opinion.
What is your IQ anyway? Hopefully, your just 12 yrs old, as I can't imagine an adult acting like
such a child. I mean really, you say phases like dumb dumb and hahahahahahahahahahaha. Wow,
you are one sad individual. Kind of feel sorry for you.........NOT!
AVNR is going to be fine. Don't think for a minute one persons comments, liar or not, make a difference on the PPS... it doesn't...
"I think I've more than clearly expressed why this stock deserves a somewhat lower price at this point AND why apparently there are now analysts TOTALLY agreeing with that. In fact...there's at least one out there apparently with an even more negative view and loss estimates for 2015 of 73c. MUCH worse than even this years. Consensus estimates almost DOUBLED in recent days according to yahoo for 2015 losses. And so...?"
Really cheerleader Basher-Congo? Guess you missed the August 18, 2014, Cowen Research published note:
In a research note published today, Cowen analyst Ritu Baral reaffirmed an Outperform rating on Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR) and increased her price target to $9.90 (from $8), which represents a 77% upside from where the stock is currently trading.
Basher-Congo, perhaps you missed Mizuho's upgrade from Neutral to BUY:
May 2, 2014
Mizuho Securities upgraded Avanir Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AVNR) from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $10.00
Basher-Congo, perhaps you ought to contact the Baker Brothers to discuss your analysis and concerns:
In a 13G filing on Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVNR), hedge fund Baker Bros. Advisors LP disclosed a 10.8%, or 18,558,487 share, stake in the company. This is up 220.52% from the 5,790,139 shares held at the end of the latest quarter ending March 31, 2014.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I don't think he is spot on. I think UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES the co. is heading for an at LEAST 2 yr and now starting to push 3 yr break even point and I don't think it's inconceivable given that that another 200M in dilution could even occur in that time frame. Again..the catch 22 here is what we have continually seen is the quarterly run rate for script growth continually declining and what I view as PREMATURELY since the start of this rollout. And so...break even is sort of like a carrot with longs as rabbits keep chasing it...and it getting pulled further and further away. All of these new uses are GREAT but years away from making money. Even onose IMO will take upwards of 3 yrs to be a SIGNIFICANT revenue contributor. Not that it's not a good product because I think it IS...but rather..due to competition and price. I think that Avnr is going to be a GOOD investment a FEW years from now. I can see all this coming together in 3 to 5 yrs with other product mixes and profitability to go along with it. I am NOT as bullish however as I once was for even that time horizon because it seems that N will become more of a niche specialty product. At least for right now clearly SSRI's are kicking N's butt big time and for whatever the reason people are choosing to go with THAT vs. the "only approved drug" for this condition. I SHOWED you what those industry groups were saying. And I think we would be wise to listen as investors.
With ALL that said..if someone is in this for 3, 4..5+ years. Has NO PROBLEM with another 100M..maybe 200M dilution and is waiting for all this to come together I still think that Avnr is a good stock. Not everyone will care if this falls back to 5/share nor should they depending on what they own In terms of shares. And so I think that some have completely over reacted to my concerns. ALSO the buyout possibility exists. Unless that b/o happens though I'm just a lot more neutral short to med term now. And for good reason.
What's amazing is how you and others distort my words and concerns. Actually...I "turned" some time ago as far as being more neutral on Avnr's results cautioning Jean and others to stop with the excuses as to script growth. Despite that however I remained at a strong buy mainly due to the stock price and my belief that they would win the patent litigation. And so I will remind you that those 2 and 3 dollar share prices has now gained 100% since my bullishness on that AND the 20% portfolio position I went into that with. I ALSO felt that the litigation was having some impact on sales with the shorts attack on both the Co. and sales force and felt that with the end of that would come better numbers and a renewed vigor. And, that happened to some extent and in fact resulted in my hold to buy rating back in the 5.40's pullback again. But things have quickly turned again here and in fact % wise I think we're seeing some of the worst numbers we've seen with a run rate of 6.8% now. And we are ALSO seeing the highest prices vs. those #'s. And so...I let the results dictate my actions...not my wishful thinking regarding those results. Sadly you and others also chose to make a great deal out of my downgrade and concerns not only disagreeing with it but personally attacking me as well relentlessly on this board. I think I've more than clearly expressed why this stock deserves a somewhat lower price at this point AND why apparently there are now analysts TOTALLY agreeing with that. In fact...there's at least one out there apparently with an even more negative view and loss estimates for 2015 of 73c. MUCH worse than even this years. Consensus estimates almost DOUBLED in recent days according to yahoo for 2015 losses. And so...? There's a negativity out there that has definitely come about I'm sad to say. I'll remind you we SAW a sales force expansion before. And saw the results of that. And so, this jury is now out pending something to change for the better. jmho