sofla ... supn was at $9.51 in February when the patent announcement came out against Allergan ... the stock went from $9.51 to $14 in an hour ... You are probably right we wont see much action regarding this particular release but its just an appetizer of releases they have in store for the summer. regardless of brexit we're in for a wild ride. dont get greedy in the upper 20's.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I don't think a patent award to a small cap play like SUPN will move the needle. We need an analyst to come out with some new guidance to move it over 20. Just my opinion.
The basic thot is that SUPN continues to execute, and in time, we will be rewarded.
I did add a few shrs this AM.
And here we have it .. the follow up press release for the final patent awarded to Oxtellar ... see you guys at $22 (resistance) in a couple days.
Jfer.....interesting ...I'm not sure what conflict a label would cause. I wouldn't think the label use would be protected in any way under a patent. BUT, I have no clue. I find it odd that the FDA would hold off on something as minor as a label change but the PR didnt really express what changes the FDA was looking for. that being said, I agree. it shouldn't have had this much effect on the price anyway. during the last two press conferences they said they have no clue how much if any additional revenue this approval would get them, admitting the drug is already being used off label for migraine use. they it really changes nothing in the bottom line one way or the other which forward PE was a bargain of around 12. as for any press release as long as its nothing to do with a M&A I'll be happy for it. I have said all along because they want to use dilutive means to obtain it, its going to kill the PPS. we have missed earnings twice by only a few cents in the last year. each time it was due to the extra shares being converted and each time the miss has trampled the Price. last year it took us from high and we haven't regained it since! if they announce any M&A we will be back to $10 a share in no time and without any additional news I am afraid we may have to wait now till the QE to come out with a good report to break back close to $20. this retreat does give the chance to close the gap in the $18 level but I think we may struggle around the $19.50 range once again until earnings.
Samsa - correct. I was afraid of this. I know exactly where the problem is I think: A patent held by another big company includes indication for children ONLY that expires at the end of the year. The Trokendi migraine label is for adults. I remember digging very hard and reading this a couple months back and it stuck in the back of my head as a potential roadblock and here we are ... However, that said, I take this as a method to scare away the little investors and drive the price down below the 50 day MA (just like they did after last quarter earnings) .... BUT they reiterated guidance of $200m+ so its a way of saying "we're still ok", which is pretty damn good growth YoY without increased debt levels. From what was said on the conference call last quarter about always looking for an M&A opportunity - The company NEEDS to achieve a market cap of about $1.5B when they sign on the dotted line for a $250million M&A. Don't be surprised if we get a positive Press Release in the next 2 weeks with something else to propel upward movement to the 20's, perhaps an update from Canada product sales? I said this back in April - she's gonna run up all summer long before the election.
you missed the biggest part of that PR...the FDA is requesting them to resubmit labeling and then the FDA will give a new PDUFA date. which means the approval we were expecting any day is now pushed back lord knows when. yes the company is hoping by 3QE but lets face it, it could be 1QE17
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Harry has posted Charts of the Day video on SUPN at TheTechTrader site noting: Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) continues moving in a rising channel, up 44 cents to 18.85, or 2.39%, on 431,200 shares traded. It has taken out resistance and may very well test 19.25but more importantly 20-201/2. It has 4.9 days to cover.
Harry has posted Charts of the Day video on SUPN at TheTechTrader site noting: Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) has done very well in the last 3-4 months after the big reversal day in February, going from under 10 to nearly 18 1/2, but the 18 1/2 level broke down, which means Monday’s high was the highest level since November, up 44 cents to 18.41, or 2.45%, on 457,000 shares traded, and reaching as high as 18.54. The next target is 20-21, but ultimately I’m looking for much higher than that. It has 4.9 days to cover.
XNPT bought out ... makes me wonder who SUPN is targetting now? Alcobra (ADHD) ? Might see a pullback for the rest of the week. No worries though. Bio tech convention coming up - historically the stocks rally during that time.
good discussion, that' what these boards should be (so much garbage on some).
I forgot to mention that I wrote calls on SUPN earlier at 16 and 17. Neither exercised. So I got to profit from the swings without having to pay capital gains (of course, I paid short term gains on the profit from the calls). SUPN has certainly had its swings, I have had positions for about 4 years.
Selling the covered calls commits me to holding the shares, unless I wish to go short.
As a little more background, I was also considering selling September 20 calls at $1.65, but the order for December 21 calls at 1.65 executed first.
Those who are strictly investing for call income would probably have preferred the September position. However, I consider that I primarily invest for capital gains, with call income as a sweetener. I'd be most willing to sell half of my position at 21 today, why not get paid extra for this possibility in December.
Another aspect of the December call is that if SUPN is trading at 22 or so and I WANT to defer the gains into 2017 I can, by doing a trade termed a "roll", change the date to March or June, and pocket a little extra money, perhaps a buck or two. Of course, the stock could decline to 20 or tank to 10 in the interim and then there would be no sale (but in the former case I could write another option to sell at 21 for a good premium).
There are possible downsides to all of this that you explicitly acknowledge. If another company now tries to buy out SUPN next month, for example at a price of 26, I lose out (21 + 1.65 would be my effective sales price). But that's one reason I only wrote a call on half my position.
If you trade options like I do, sometimes you will not realize the maximum possible gain in an up market, but one is always generating often significant income in static or down markets.
I wrote some options on TTPH when it was 40 or so and watched these shares come crashing down (I still hold them, and have averaged down a bit; but I also sold shares via calls at 25 and 30 on the way up).
I hope this answers your questions. Good luck whatever strategy you go with.
It's not my experience to sell covered calls so far out, can I ask a question?
If I have 500 shrs, and sell thoise calls, shd I be committed to holding those shrs until Dec? I know of an instance where someone I know sold long dated calls, the stock went down a lot, he sold, but since the options were so far out, they didn't move much, so he let it ride, and the stock fully recovered, and he had to buy back to deliver the shrs.
So, does selling those calls commit you to holding the shrs? Can you educate me on how you see that playing out? If the stock were to move up nicely, would you add to maintain a position post the Dec expiration?
My past experience with selling calls was selling the near term expirations, maybe as far out as Jul, but never 6 months out.
I hope. this is a wild beast with a mind of its own. I think the entire sector is holding it back. now that its in the S&P 600 I noticed it more closely follows the group. if bio-techs are down this one is. if thats the case, that may hold it back at least until after the elections. Valeant hasnt helped one bit.