true......not sure what else the company can do other than repurchase some of the convertables. I have been thinking and wonder if thats what is holding back the stock from taking off. the fear of the rest of the notes being converted into more shares and people think that is dilutive?
Expenses for the first half of the year were $46 million. They should end up this year about flat on earnings with revenue about equal to expenses. Should have positive earnings in 2015. A good buy at these levels. Zacks pumping has given the stock a boost today.
Cash burn = revenue - expenses.
*UPDATE: Orchard Hill Letter to Supernus Board Shows Fund Belief Co. is 'Substantially Undervalued,' Urging Board to Evaluation Options Including Selling Co. (Benzinga)
I have come to the conclusion....this stock needs some awefully bad news to come out and then it would jump to where it should be trading at. LOL. it seems good news doesnt help and the thing tumbles. now its trading lower than after that exceptional 2QE. but it was trading at 52 week 2 months ago with no news at all. we should call this the trading backward stock. LOL. makes me laugh at times. there is no figuring it out or logic to it
Mr maglue.....Thanks for the insight. I hadnt noticed that biotech ETF's were acting the same. Your right about diversification. I am well disversifiied. I have two players right now in my "high risk/high reward" catagory. SUPN and IPCI. IPCI acts like I expect it too as a small cap startup biotech. they actually had similar floats until recently with SUPN 's convertables. but like I was saying when IPCI has good news the stock jumps. and had a relative back off and then levels. its down recently on a bad 2QE. SUPN however, doesnt act like that. it goes no where on news, or ends up flat. I can see the retraction before earnings as people dont want to get caught short. but once earnings came out it bounced to 9.50 and yesterday was back to 8.50? I personally dont see the justification in the retraction with the news they gave where they expect to earn $1 a share this year if anyone took the time to do the math. in my mind this thing should have continued the move at least to above $10 and should be testing the 52 wk high. but here we were yesterday at only $1 above the PPs where it was when they annouced FDA approval ! I am long this stock, already holding for over 18 months. I'm just trying to grasp in my mind what it will take to actually move this to sustainable upward trend.
It depends on what exactly Actavis has developed and filed. If they filed an exact duplicate of the propriety SUPN formulation, then they will not get approval due to a patent infringement. If they have filed what they claim is a non-infringing formulation, then the FDA can grant approval. What will likely happen is that SUPN will file suit against Actavis and that starts an automatic 30-month stay period before they could get full FDA approval.
the biotech ETFs have all acting the same [to some degree] the last couple of days. It is the exact reason why diversification of asset [classes] is MANDITORY to successful investing strategies. Of course there ARE people who put all their eggs in one basket and ... WIN!?! ... and then they tend to confuse luck, with talent.
breathe deep and relax. No unusual volume sell off.... It is not much different than the sell off that occurred a months back (to ~7.5$). No, I don't feel like dancing, but I am not suicidal either
DL.....I saw that but 2 things. that news just came out today so had no real effect on the $1 drop in the past week. this thing is trading at only 30 cents above [rior to earnings report and had taken a $1.50 drop prior to earnings. I understandthe drop prior to earnings but after that release this should have at least recaptured lost ground. 2nd, the Actavis filing is a non issue. the company already stated they intend to protect their proprietary patent which was granted to 2027 passionately. if they were to settle, the FDA still routinely withholds approvals for a minimum of 40 months AFTER any settlement is reached. so assuming they settle, Actavis is at least 48 months out or 4 years away ! so if it is anything to do with that its a way over reaction....so any other thoughts? unless your right and the market is over reacting
Actavis just filed an ANDA for TrokendiXR. If approved by the FDA (a year or so from now), it would be the 3rd entry for an extended release drug. If Actavis decides to compete on price, it could make things tough for SUPN.
I'm leaving this blank because I would like someone else to fill it in. enlighten me. after the 2QE report and in my calculations this should put the company to earn a little over a $1 a share by year end. I cant for the life of me figure out why this is selling at such a deep discount. even at a multiplier of 5X revenue it should be at $12 a share. so....anyone want to answer the topic line?
wait to see if drops a couple digits below the 180SMA, right now it fell below the 100 but it has bounced off this sma a couple times...
Stock....you have a lot to learn about this stock. I have seen two FDA approvals and the stock jumped $1 in the morning and back to maybe 10 cents higher by close. The other month when they announced the 30 million in cash they recieved for selling their royalty rights which was unexpected cash and I knew would propel the company to profit this year, I watched the stock drop that day ! this stock is heavly owned by institutions. over 80%. these big boys short sell, and trade based on theor own agenda and move this stock. last week, one Mutual fund just sold over a million shares ! taking the stock from 9.20 to 8.33 within a week. why? when we were all expecting a great quarter? because they have their own agenda. maybe they held too many biotechs for the fund that month? who knows. just know that if you hold long enough. it will achieve higher highs and higher lows.
Good news should have propelled share higher, but profit takers took it down from pop this AM.
If this doesnt rebound tommorow, I will wonder if the trend will continue down until it hits support.