I think they are going with something bigger than the 9.
I remember the somber thanksgiving message, nearly suicidal, indicating that he was leaving.... that message has been deleted, I found, looking for it a few days ago...
I don't think $10 anytime soon and I doubt it will climb back up to $15 either, unless the next earnings report surprises on the upside. I'll just hold and sell out of the money covered calls and collect the cash until there is another spike in the share price. Then I might sell a few shares if they haven't already been called.
I do think we are going through a slowdown in demand but one has to remember that a whole new population of gun owners and shooting enthusiasts was created in the last few years. Some will lose interest but others will not. Long term this administration has been a boon for the company, and has given the shooting "community" a permanent boost, IMHO.
The stock buyback performs the same function as a dividend and allows the investor to control the date of taxation. So, you have nothing to complain about.
Bankruptcy! Ha! When a company's revenues fall they cut the dividend. There is no risk of bankruptcy from a small dividend.
Paperwork and income taxes? Hold your dividend stocks in an IRA account and forget about it!
I like the dividend idea. Give me a share of the profits! As long as there are some!!!!
Dividend is a bad idea.....it eats up profits by increasing income taxes.....it increases the price to book ratio of the stock.....and it increases the risk of bankruptcy......the paperwork on dividend is a nuisance
Datbe aka Libertee claims that institutions are selling "hand over fist" and they are the same investors that have been loading up on Smith in the past. This is not true. There was only one note worthy sale which came from Eagle Asset Management, which was about 905K shares. All other exits/sales reported 06/30/14 were very small meaning we (just yahoo message board users) easily hold way more than what was sold. The big dogs are holding. I'd expect Vangaurd and FMR to reduce holdings slightly if another big buy back hits to keep them below 10% ownership. This is Datbe logic people. Speaking with a serpents tongue of lies. The definition of a shelf registration is nothing close to the definition of a secondary public offering, but Datbe will keep saying it is over and over in hopes that he will be believed. Looks like we got the same thing again with institutional ownership. Last I remember Datbe's SPO theory, he was swearing it would go below $5 while the stock was around $10. It really went to $17. Maybe his idiocy is an indicator of the next run. If I recall correctly, Datbe always said he was leaving the board never to return again...aren't we getting the same thing from Libertee now?
According to an article "today", it seems the debate may continue to till all testers determine which Mfg. & a Calibre seems best - then a decision. I didn't see anything about a July 29 date ??
Maybe some day the military will figure out some things just aren't a "one size fits all" and allow 3 options (??) for a life-saving firearm .. naaaa
I just read up on vaious like and dislike on the "9mm vs .40 cal. vs the .45 .. This could be one of those "beauty is in the eye of the beholder" things you know (?).. like, what feels good in your hand as far as hitting your target. Seems the .40 cal is powerfull enough to prematurely wear down the the action on the current pistols it's chambered for - they say they're all modified 9mm frames ??
This debate may be like my (likes to pick @ everything) nexdoor neighbor . He had a 'Smith 9mm' he was unhappy with and offered to sell it to me for $275 (a few years back) .. I instantly pulled out the $275 .. he folded, no deal.
Then the yak about (stainless) Walther PPK-S .380 he could get, but wasn't sure about the handling.
I let him handle my (blue) PPK-S .380 for the feel, he instantly started picking knit-picking again.
He was affraid the slide could catch the 'meat' between thumb / index finger on the blow-back .. btw, his hands were smaller than mine. Then he started yaking about a hammerless revolver ?? (POOF)
I personally "for me" I have no problem debilitating my adversary from a (double stack) "9mm" mag .. long enough for a GOOD second shot rather than chance on a single stack .45 cal. 7 rd mag.- do they even have a (fat) double stack .45 pistol mag ???
So rather than redesigning the pistol .(?) .. maybe 'high explosive hollow-point ammo" is the answer :-)
I understand most on this board believe it's implausible that a company as profitable as SWHC isn't on the new highs list every day. Instead it appears that the street has fallen out of love with it. Institutional investors, who not long ago couldn't get their fill of it , now seem to be selling hand over fist.(check out institutional holding changes last quarter).. Here is what I believe is the answer: the peak "rate of change" in the increase in sales and earnings are behind us. "Normal" is not going to cut it...at least in RGR's case they have a " share the wealth with stockholders" plan in place. 40% of earnings get paid out in dividends. NOT SO WITH SWHC. Their board has a "share the wealth with executives" plan in place. The peak growth in the "conceal carry" movement is over. Check with organizations that put on the classes....this is definitely a "leading indicator" to demand for the pocket pistol and M&P line....sure there are analysts out there preaching the stock is going to $21....I'm betting they were saying sell @ $6. Zacks is down to a #3 from a #1 since the stock fell from $17 to $13 and change... They'll go to a 4 if the stock continues to languish as I believe it will...there is still huge short interest out there, which is positive, but that could be offset by margined longs who have been doubling down as the stock has pulled back here, believing the market is wrong. Margin calls on longs will be a wet blanket on the stock. Institutions will continue selling into any rallies. Although I'm not constructive on either stock at this juncture, I do believe RGR to be the better bet at the moment. It wouldn't be right if I didn't give you some good news. This is my last post here until the stock is either below $11 or above $16...in the earlier case it will be to revise my outlook from there, in latter, it will be to eat crow...good luck to all of you, friend and foe alike...
Cap'n, it's not important what I think or say here. The stock itself is trying to tell you something. Put your emotions aside and take a look. I'm trying to be helpful. I'm not infallible by any means, but will tell you that the stocks action is spelling danger ahead here...
Special ops will likely go for a more powerful cartridges such as the .40 S&W or the .45 ACP.... They already are doing that...The training and skill level of their personnel can benefit by them. As far as the "general infantryman" goes, which probably accounts for 90% of the entire service, I think they'll stick with the 9mm....I don't think buying the stock because you think S&W may win the contract is a good idea in any event.
The deal with the M-16 vs the Auto-Kalashnikov's - the AK's have been around since 1947.
Their parts are very sloppy, but the barrel is accurate .. bury them in the mud & dirt, dig them up later, brush them off and blast away with a 7.62 (30 cal. round vs the 5.56mm or 223 cal - keying in on 22 caliber.)
The M-16's of that day couldn't handle that kind of abuse, they'll JAM at the drop of a hat, and that had killed alot of soldiers of the Viet Nam era.
Also, the Military mind-set back then was .. with the M-16's 5.56 round, was the body damage it created, not neccessarily death - shooting one man, you temporarily take 3 men out of service - only "one" is injured, or dead .. "one" has to attend to wounds .. OR 'two people" have to remove the injured or dead from the field.
The 45 cal was developed for those drugged-up suicide soldiers in WW1 - We needed a caliber that would physically knock a man down in his tracks .. because they had some drug-induced trigger fingers & some long beyonets.
Perhaps today's double-stack mags make up for the knock-down power of the 45's back then ?
However with more women in the military today, specifically making note that only "hardened COMBAT" troops tend to carry side-arms - then we have more women (civilians) wanting to be armed & the 9mm was developed for military use (more head pressure) .. therefore a more versitle, HIGH-powerd round, but smaller, less recoil than the 45.
Incidently, I know absolutely nothing about the development or ballistics of the 40 cal round ... or IF it was of any 'military' engineered/approved, as many others had been previously developed, for any Nations Military ??
Example - 223 is a civillian round vs. 5.56 - both same calibers but one is a Mil. developed round (that's that ole 'head-pressure' thing again)
As far as the 9mm vs the 40 cal. (?) for Military Contracts (?) .. I'll go with the already proven (German Military) 9mm Parabellum round - (jmho)
(feel free to add or correct ?)