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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

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  • Reply to

    It's the "rate of change" that matters ....

    by libertee4all Jul 13, 2014 7:21 AM

    Bankruptcy! Ha! When a company's revenues fall they cut the dividend. There is no risk of bankruptcy from a small dividend.

    Paperwork and income taxes? Hold your dividend stocks in an IRA account and forget about it!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Some folks nibbling at SWHC a little this morning.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    It's the "rate of change" that matters ....

    by libertee4all Jul 13, 2014 7:21 AM

    I like the dividend idea. Give me a share of the profits! As long as there are some!!!!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    It's the "rate of change" that matters ....

    by libertee4all Jul 13, 2014 7:21 AM
    daytradinghillbilly@gmail.com daytradinghillbilly Jul 14, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    Dividend is a bad idea.....it eats up profits by increasing income taxes.....it increases the price to book ratio of the stock.....and it increases the risk of bankruptcy......the paperwork on dividend is a nuisance

  • Datbe aka Libertee claims that institutions are selling "hand over fist" and they are the same investors that have been loading up on Smith in the past. This is not true. There was only one note worthy sale which came from Eagle Asset Management, which was about 905K shares. All other exits/sales reported 06/30/14 were very small meaning we (just yahoo message board users) easily hold way more than what was sold. The big dogs are holding. I'd expect Vangaurd and FMR to reduce holdings slightly if another big buy back hits to keep them below 10% ownership. This is Datbe logic people. Speaking with a serpents tongue of lies. The definition of a shelf registration is nothing close to the definition of a secondary public offering, but Datbe will keep saying it is over and over in hopes that he will be believed. Looks like we got the same thing again with institutional ownership. Last I remember Datbe's SPO theory, he was swearing it would go below $5 while the stock was around $10. It really went to $17. Maybe his idiocy is an indicator of the next run. If I recall correctly, Datbe always said he was leaving the board never to return again...aren't we getting the same thing from Libertee now?

  • According to an article "today", it seems the debate may continue to till all testers determine which Mfg. & a Calibre seems best - then a decision. I didn't see anything about a July 29 date ??
    Maybe some day the military will figure out some things just aren't a "one size fits all" and allow 3 options (??) for a life-saving firearm .. naaaa

    I just read up on vaious like and dislike on the "9mm vs .40 cal. vs the .45 .. This could be one of those "beauty is in the eye of the beholder" things you know (?).. like, what feels good in your hand as far as hitting your target. Seems the .40 cal is powerfull enough to prematurely wear down the the action on the current pistols it's chambered for - they say they're all modified 9mm frames ??

    This debate may be like my (likes to pick @ everything) nexdoor neighbor . He had a 'Smith 9mm' he was unhappy with and offered to sell it to me for $275 (a few years back) .. I instantly pulled out the $275 .. he folded, no deal.
    Then the yak about (stainless) Walther PPK-S .380 he could get, but wasn't sure about the handling.
    I let him handle my (blue) PPK-S .380 for the feel, he instantly started picking knit-picking again.
    He was affraid the slide could catch the 'meat' between thumb / index finger on the blow-back .. btw, his hands were smaller than mine. Then he started yaking about a hammerless revolver ?? (POOF)

    I personally "for me" I have no problem debilitating my adversary from a (double stack) "9mm" mag .. long enough for a GOOD second shot rather than chance on a single stack .45 cal. 7 rd mag.- do they even have a (fat) double stack .45 pistol mag ???
    So rather than redesigning the pistol .(?) .. maybe 'high explosive hollow-point ammo" is the answer :-)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I understand most on this board believe it's implausible that a company as profitable as SWHC isn't on the new highs list every day. Instead it appears that the street has fallen out of love with it. Institutional investors, who not long ago couldn't get their fill of it , now seem to be selling hand over fist.(check out institutional holding changes last quarter).. Here is what I believe is the answer: the peak "rate of change" in the increase in sales and earnings are behind us. "Normal" is not going to cut it...at least in RGR's case they have a " share the wealth with stockholders" plan in place. 40% of earnings get paid out in dividends. NOT SO WITH SWHC. Their board has a "share the wealth with executives" plan in place. The peak growth in the "conceal carry" movement is over. Check with organizations that put on the classes....this is definitely a "leading indicator" to demand for the pocket pistol and M&P line....sure there are analysts out there preaching the stock is going to $21....I'm betting they were saying sell @ $6. Zacks is down to a #3 from a #1 since the stock fell from $17 to $13 and change... They'll go to a 4 if the stock continues to languish as I believe it will...there is still huge short interest out there, which is positive, but that could be offset by margined longs who have been doubling down as the stock has pulled back here, believing the market is wrong. Margin calls on longs will be a wet blanket on the stock. Institutions will continue selling into any rallies. Although I'm not constructive on either stock at this juncture, I do believe RGR to be the better bet at the moment. It wouldn't be right if I didn't give you some good news. This is my last post here until the stock is either below $11 or above $16...in the earlier case it will be to revise my outlook from there, in latter, it will be to eat crow...good luck to all of you, friend and foe alike...

  • Reply to

    Set your SWHC clocks to $10.....

    by libertee4all Jul 12, 2014 9:05 AM

    Cap'n, it's not important what I think or say here. The stock itself is trying to tell you something. Put your emotions aside and take a look. I'm trying to be helpful. I'm not infallible by any means, but will tell you that the stocks action is spelling danger ahead here...

  • Special ops will likely go for a more powerful cartridges such as the .40 S&W or the .45 ACP.... They already are doing that...The training and skill level of their personnel can benefit by them. As far as the "general infantryman" goes, which probably accounts for 90% of the entire service, I think they'll stick with the 9mm....I don't think buying the stock because you think S&W may win the contract is a good idea in any event.

  • Reply to

    Set your SWHC clocks to $10.....

    by libertee4all Jul 12, 2014 9:05 AM

    You just can't help yourself can you.

  • The deal with the M-16 vs the Auto-Kalashnikov's - the AK's have been around since 1947.
    Their parts are very sloppy, but the barrel is accurate .. bury them in the mud & dirt, dig them up later, brush them off and blast away with a 7.62 (30 cal. round vs the 5.56mm or 223 cal - keying in on 22 caliber.)
    The M-16's of that day couldn't handle that kind of abuse, they'll JAM at the drop of a hat, and that had killed alot of soldiers of the Viet Nam era.
    Also, the Military mind-set back then was .. with the M-16's 5.56 round, was the body damage it created, not neccessarily death - shooting one man, you temporarily take 3 men out of service - only "one" is injured, or dead .. "one" has to attend to wounds .. OR 'two people" have to remove the injured or dead from the field.

    The 45 cal was developed for those drugged-up suicide soldiers in WW1 - We needed a caliber that would physically knock a man down in his tracks .. because they had some drug-induced trigger fingers & some long beyonets.
    Perhaps today's double-stack mags make up for the knock-down power of the 45's back then ?

    However with more women in the military today, specifically making note that only "hardened COMBAT" troops tend to carry side-arms - then we have more women (civilians) wanting to be armed & the 9mm was developed for military use (more head pressure) .. therefore a more versitle, HIGH-powerd round, but smaller, less recoil than the 45.

    Incidently, I know absolutely nothing about the development or ballistics of the 40 cal round ... or IF it was of any 'military' engineered/approved, as many others had been previously developed, for any Nations Military ??

    Example - 223 is a civillian round vs. 5.56 - both same calibers but one is a Mil. developed round (that's that ole 'head-pressure' thing again)
    As far as the 9mm vs the 40 cal. (?) for Military Contracts (?) .. I'll go with the already proven (German Military) 9mm Parabellum round - (jmho)

    (feel free to add or correct ?)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • When we get there I'm quite sure it will be a wake up call.....

  • "SOF Prefers 9mm over .45." Search it for article...

  • Reply to

    I'm not a Beretta 92FS fan but:

    by libertee4all Jul 11, 2014 10:02 PM

    My comments on SWHC are just one person's opinion. Take them or leave them. The chart on the right is the market's opinion of SWHC. Pay attention to it.

  • Reply to

    I'm not a Beretta 92FS fan but:

    by libertee4all Jul 11, 2014 10:02 PM

    Those stats were provided to show what it took to win the most recent "competition"...1984. The reliability stats are impressive. I have numerous poly frame guns (3 from S&W) ,alloy frame , and steel frame pistols .. In various calibers. . ... Shoot and field strip them regularly and am familiar with various guns function and wear characteristics. I'll stand by my statement "good luck to any poly frame gun" to beat a Beretta in the malfunction category. I've been actively shooting for 35 years and recoil still affects my shooting and I weigh 180 lbs....think what a lightweight .40 S&W M&P in the hands of a 120lb female infantry(person) would result in? I don't own a 92fs...don't want one... It is an anchor. I believe they are around 3 lbs fully loaded... But the 92 has relatively minimal recoil measured against a lightweight poly frame gun shooting the same caliber..... If I were an infantryman I'd chose a lighter poly frame compact pistol and save the weight as I said. But that's not who is making the decision. Beretta has been smooshing the Army for years for another thing. They are the "champ ". Somebody has to really BEAT THEM to win the contract . But if the same malfunction criteria is used on the upcoming challenge I'd be surprised if a S&W wins it... It's all moot...S&W doesn't want the business. Who cares, the stock is going to $21 without the contract, right?

  • Reply to

    I'm not a Beretta 92FS fan but:

    by libertee4all Jul 11, 2014 10:02 PM

    Um your pulling numbers from 1984...boy you sure do love to reach. I'm not sure if you've heard, but the M&P has a stainless barrel and slide, not aluminum or carbon steel. The most common reason a steel frame would fail is shock....a polymer frame offers flexibility to shock and expansionary properties resulting from temperature change. I'm not sure if you've actually disassembled a polymer framed handgun, but if you look closely, the frame is designed to take on little to no wear. If you believe technology can't compete with 1984, I want what your smoking.

  • Regardless of caliber requirements, if the M&P line offers lighter weight and higher quality, it's most definitely a contender. Margin will be affected, however the steady revenue stream and word of mouth testimonial reviews passed from our soldiers to the citizens would prove to be the best free advertising any company could ask for. At that point SWHC would be slamming RGR in revenues and margin. I do not agree with your acquisition theory resulting from the note issuance. I think it's going to be the final buyback move in the program. I'd like $150 million, but it's most likely going to be $100 million thrown at it in the exit. Hopefully, the price will keep falling with the stink bait Debney is using so they get more shares on the ultra cheap. The next step would be paying down the "Revolver" loan that was originally taken for the first buy back. The senior notes will offer more flexibility in terms of maturity and lower rates compared to the Revolver. An acquisition isn't off the table, but it's unlikely without a huge increase in demand most likely to come from a big contract.

  • Beretta U.S.A. Reliability and Durability Statistics for the Beretta 9mm Pistol

    • The average reliability of all M9 pistols tested at Beretta U.S.A. is 17,500 rounds without a stoppage.
    • During one test of twelve pistols fired at Beretta U.S.A. before Army supervision, Beretta-made M9 pistols shot 168,000 rounds without a single malfunction.
    • The Beretta 9mm pistol was the most reliable of all pistols tested in the 1984 competition which resulted in the award of the M9 contract to Beretta.
    • Two-thirds of all M9 pistols endurance tested at Beretta U.S.A. fired 5,000 rounds without a single mal function or, at most, with only one malfunction.
    • The average durability of Beretta M9 slides is over 35,000 rounds, the point at which U.S. Army testing ceases.
    • The average durability of M9 frames is over 30,000 rounds. The average durability of M9 locking blocks is 22,000 rounds..... Good luck poly frame contenders.... And supposedly they want a heavier cartridge too?

  • Like the bet on the price of SWHC: we shall see... We are still the backbone of NATO... 9mm and 5.56mm are NATO.... Sure there are voices wanting a more powerful cartridge....some lib generals may even be blaming our results in Iraq and Afghanistan on the 9mm (ha).. It's a red herring.... Handguns are a footnote in the outcomes of modern warfare. I said once earlier the best option would be to dump the steel 92 for a pocket sub 20oz 9mm pocket pistol and replace the weight with an extra 30 round mag for the rifle....and just train the recruits to hit a man target at 10 ft with the pistol..., but that won't likely happen either...The time taken to get recruits proficient with a heavy caliber pistol would be a serious waste of time. . I'm betting they will come to that conclusion despite the grumbling over the 9mms power shortcomings. The most important aspect of a cartridges stopping power is its ability to hit the target... S&W's average 40% margins are history with an Army contract... And the business is very cyclical....they would need to make huge capital outlays and then expect to have excess capacity after initial orders are met. It's not the kind of business they want..... And they are bidding against companies much more adept at going after big government/law enforcement contracts. They seem to go after a few small law agency contracts for the halo effect, but S&W isn't about to turn itself upside down an disp side out to become the US Armies new handgun maker. And I doubt the army would choose them anyway.... It won't happen. You, being a shareholder are better off they don't I believe..

  • Reply to

    Army Modular Handgun System (MHS)

    by johno182s2004 Jul 9, 2014 8:27 PM
    echo2l65@ymail.com echo2l65 Jul 11, 2014 9:05 PM Flag

    I thought the Mil. had already switch from Beretta (I don't know what gave me that thought ??), however I just picked up a lightly used 'mod.92' w/box & papers (no rail), for about $485.
    I still have the 'old' Norinco 9mm Parabellum ammo from the Clinton era .. you know, in those green & yellow 50 rnd. boxes :-) ~ And newer stock, all stored in 50 Cal. cans
    I also pick up some 'harder to find' 7.62 X 25 Tokarev (new) ammo .. 2 boxes of 50 rds @ $30 ea. .. (for the iron curtain CZ-52)

    I just dusted off my (newly puchased, from the mid 90's) Colt 45 1911 *series 70* (M1991A1) .. still have plenty of rds for that too.
    I've got plenty of 9 X18 Makarov ammo for (2) Radom P-64's & 1 older (N.I.B.) Russian Baikal Mod. IJ-70 9X18 Mak. (Estate Sale) .. original receipt $125 10 yrs ago ?

    The Radom Poland (Arsenal) P-64 is a iron curtain knock-off of the Walther PPK-S .380 Cal. (9X17.Kurtz) which I also have N.I B. - but U.S made by Interarms, under the Walther Contract.
    However I like the Brown Bear 9X18 ammo for the mil. load (more head pressure than the .380) .. that's my hip pocket 7 shot C.C piece .
    Then, there is my Walther P-1 "factory re-furbished", same as P-38 ( thru Gander Mtn) ... not to leave out the Browning Buckmark .22 cal. (also new in box).
    I originally went to "Greentop" this past Tues. to look for perhaps a Ruger Blackhawk .44 (hog-leg), but got the Beretta 92 instead - I'll still shop for that Ruger B.H .44 mag later.

    My S&W's are a Mod.36 .. in 38 cal - a M&P M2 5.56mm - then another AR (Rock River) M-4 .. 5.56mm .. and a few lever action Marlins .. a few Bolt actions - 3 Ithica Mod. 37 Feather-lights,.. Rem.870 Mag. & 1100 .. Win. Mod. 28 dbl brl - 2 pellet rifles, one being a great "Gammo" (one pump).. then a cheap but very accurate China made pump-up rifle .. a pump pistol - all are .177cal
    Two Black Powder rifles ( yada yada ) ??

    Sentiment: Buy

SWHC
13.80-0.10(-0.72%)4:00 PMEDT

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