The conference was in London so it was out before the market on Thursday. The rise on Thursday when most of the biotechs were down was the tell.
I assume the analysts didn't like what he had to say since we are down $2.50 on a very good market day.
I listened to the Jefferies Global HC Conf. from morning of 11/20 just now. Not a lot to add except that CEO David Hung seems very determined and confident that his company will be able to push Xtandi into ever earlier use in prostate treatment and greatly expand the use of Xtandi. Of course he wouldn't give out trial data (though questioned about it), but his presentation was very focused on the opportunity against both Casodex (620,000 scripts in the US alone) and Lupron (newest study just initiated). Lupron is used when there is a biochemical recurrence but isn't approved per se. On 10/31/14 Astellas said this "Phase 3 clinical trial that will evaluate the efficacy and safety of enzalutamide in patients with high-risk, hormone-sensitive, non-metastatic prostate cancer that has biochemically recurred (rising prostate-specific antigen [PSA] level) following definitive local therapy with radical prostatectomy and/or radiation therapy. Currently, there is no prescription medicine specifically approved in the United States for these patients."
Hung said that they had patients still alive from the initial 2007 study who were still on Xtandi, considering how late Xtandi was being used in treatment then that's impressive. TERRAIN data to be released in early 2015, STRIVE data a few months after that. Breast Cancer 2nd week of December.
PCYC is projected to have much more revenue in 2016, 2017, 2018. Furthermore, their drug can be applied to many more cancers alone and in combination with other drugs. Thus there are many more partnership opportunities and fat pay checks from licensing partners in PCYC. I wish there was a good resource that showed the revenue beyond 2015. I had to dig around to get the numbers for 2016-2018 for both PCYC and MDVN. I like both stocks but PCYC has more growth potential IMHO.
Is what this Riceen person wrote in Sunday's letter. How does he know what the future will bring? Anybody could guess and be 87% right.
Riceen is about 105 and still active as can be. He has thousands of followers that. Buy and sell on his command. He know's a lot about medication and gives his predictions on it's future.
I think it was a lucky guess that RIceen made last week predicting a close of $106.92. This week he writes $112.54. I will watch to see the close next week to see if Riceen comes close.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Citi (who are pretty decent in biotech space) have Medivation as their top pick on their focus list saying, "We continue to view Medivation (MDVN) as our top pick on Citi's Focus List as we expect upside to estimates, solid TERRAIN data and as we view upcoming breast cancer data as upside to our expectations."
Medivation was listed as most preferred in the midcap biotech space along with BMRN, ICPT and ALKS (another focus list stock for Citi).
Considering the red in biotech on Friday MDVN held up pretty well, likely helped by the Citi call.
Call me crazy, but I think I am going to buy more on this drop today. Mathematically its the right thing to do. Of course, only if it goes back up :)
I doubled down thinking it was time for a correction. Not sure what is going on with this stock, but I thought it was cheap at these rates. Who knows if/when it will turn back around and go up.