Bear, thanks for the insight. I knew biotech had been on a several year tear, but did know it was as significant as you state. Stocks in general, seem ripe for a correction. A lot of high fliers out there, which have great stories, and could pan out in the future, seem too risky. Tesla is a good example. Could end up being tremendous, but have a huge road to go to justify their valuation. Others such as whole foods, middle by, etc. are also priced for perfection. No bargains here. Any body have other thoughts on the market and how to find "undervalued" or "reasonably valued" stocks with some underlying cash flow in this market? Would be interested in anyone's thoughts.
This stock, like virtually every other biotech, made its high on Feb 25'th. There is a general rotation out of this sector underway. If you look at the bellwether of the sector, GILD, you will note a weakening after Feb 25, even in the face of an S&P advance. It took Cramer almost a week to notice what was underway, and when he did, he had a facile explanation ready: Biotech was a safe haven from the vicissitudes of the overall market - it offered the prospect of growth, even in a stagnant economy. This would suggest a rotation into financials and industrials, which may have begun, if somewhat timidly. I think this is a partial explanation; the other part is that the sector is overextended, with virtually every stock and the biotech indexes needing a pause. For example, FBIOX, the Fidelity Select Biotech Fund, has quadrupled over the past 4 years. I don't think this means that one should abandon the stocks with real prospects. But certainly this was a time to reposition yourself in some of these, particularly in your IRA's, where there are no real tax consequences for taking profits. I sold CELG, GILD, and some others out of my IRA's on 2/28, and am now rebuilding those positions somewhat gingerly.
As for pre-chemo, some of the analysts obviously expected more off-label usage than they got. Particularly Credit-Suisse and Jeffries, who were the two biggest cheerleaders. So, at this point after the post conference call drop, it's fair to say that pre-chemo has been priced out of the stock ... at least for the short term. What has not been priced out, I believe, is the acquisition premium.
After reviewing the Riceen letter today, I have come up with many conclusions that seem very positive in this atmosphere of today. He predicts an increase this week to $74.65. Knowing that he has a stong percentage of being correct, I think it is close to 85%, it seems that he may be right again. He did predict the drop in the last two weeks because of what they predicted the future is. But, MDVN did this on purpose so they could blow out the next quarter.
This company has a lot going for it and there may be a possibility of a buy out in the near future. They do have the best drug on the market with a possibility of beating their earnings by 30%.
Riceen goes on to explain a big jump in price this week. On Wednesday alone he predicted it will go up over . You should read his letter, and it am sure you will be impressed just like me.$3.00.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Any thoughts on value of pre chemo and if it is priced in? Given the success of the phase III trial, it seems a foregone conclusion it will be approved, and as I understand likely sometime in Q3. Also, any thoughts on why biotech in general seems to be down last week or so?
PS This genie, like so many of the sprites who propound this silly stuff, is apparently a big believer in DNDN and Provenge. I am reminded of the 19'th century followers of William Miller, who, after his death, gathered around his body awaiting his resurrection. But even they, after the body began to stink, eventually gave up and left.
because as soon as generic Zytiga hits the market, Xtandi will never be covered. MDVN refused to tell analysts even what it charges for its half drug. This is a cover up for fraud.
shorts are kind of sick,they like to prey on peoples mis-fortunes and they love to gloat about it,if your long please don't pay attention to these juvenile delinquents.feel sorry for them and keep them in your prayers as their mothers don't even like them.
Patience pays off as usual !! for all those who held on to their positions below a 1.00 congrats!! For those who chose to ignore roxy that's what i call gettin kicked hard in the hindies people!!! Here's to a toast of castle brands!!!
Well it wasn' t Monday but it did hit $65 ($65.51 lod) I presume it will go back to the up and down game for awhile before going down again before next earnings. IMHO
Even worse...You can't spell catalyst. Xtandi is the whole ball of wax. Most believe that they were conservative on their guidance--but the guidance was less than what was hoped for. Urologists have a strong incentive to prescribe Xtandi---I'm in
I bought some too, but having doubts because it might get some lower.. The next couple of months there are no catalists
Sentiment: Strong Buy