I doubt it would fall like a rock. All bios have moved up recently, so no reason for this to just fall that far. Also, if board is not replaced, there is always a take-out premium here, so probably won't fall much.
Yes- this thing 'will fall like a rock' back down to $30 if Board is not replaced. It will probably take several quarters/years of 'good news' to make it back up to current level!
getting rid of this board and have a new people may not be that bad after all. The alternative is putting up with declining revs and increasing clinicaltrial costs which does not bode well for pps appreciation.
Yes- you are absolutely right- 'company does not want sold'. Only way to 'get it sold' is voting with SNY. I think investors win either way- but quicker by taking a buyout offer 'north of $65'.
"Precedent acquisitions in the biopharmaceutical sector also highlight the inferiority of Sanofi’s proposal. The median two-year forward revenue multiple of high growth biotechnology and oncology transactions in the last five years is 10.4x^4 vs. the 6.3x5 multiple that Sanofi’s $8.8 billion proposal implies for Medivation. Notably, when Pharmacyclics – in our view the most relevant high-growth oncology peer – was sold, the acquirer paid a two-year forward revenue multiple of 11.5x".
This is good news because it shows that management wants something similar to Pharmacylics or at least have a two-year forward revenue multiple of 10.4x^4. With that being said, the tone of the letter seems like this company does not want to be sold and the shareholders are forcing Hung's hand.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Actually nothing has been filed yet, they list it as an "investigation". Its a variety of ambulance chasing. Likewise if there is a buyout there will be class action suits claiming all sorts of wrong doing. Damed if you do, damed if you don't.
Five of the top ten holders are index funds. Index funds won't be selling, unless the index changes. Various Vanguard and Fidelity funds own nearly a quarter of the shares. None of these are prone to boredom or selling in a rush. The #3 top holder, Knoll Capital, said they are not selling and think its worth $100 a share. Most likely they all would like to hold off on their unrealized 1000%+ capital gain (Knolls early shares are up 10,000%).
its not who cares, it is about how many shares do they hold that they might sell in a rush & help keep the stock for awhile, that is the problem
Only people getting bored is the short timers and they are free to move on. The big mutuals and index funds have been in this for years and I suspect are quite happy. Not to many stocks up 1000% in five years in most portfolios. Most of those who bought on news of takeover are not investors, they are traders, here today and gone tomorrow. Who cares if they are bored?
Don't you people understand - IT WILL STILL HAVE TO COME UP TO A VOTE- which the majority would NO WAY GO FOR $52.50 - LET ALONE $62.50!
I think once the proxy fight is over, things will start to speed up and bidders will start to appear. Right now everyone is waiting for this to end so that they can start the selling process. Stupid Sanofi is delaying everything.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Why would these institutions that invest for the long term, especially the index funds, care for a couple dollar bump in this stock via a potential buyout? Makes no sense. The only ones that will be voting with SNY are the hedge funds and day traders looking for a couple of quick bucks. Anyone else is happy to continue riding a stock which brags one of the best returns of the last decade. If a buyout happens at a much higher price so be it but I would be willing to bet none of the listed top ten holders are unhappy with the current board and seriously doubt they will vote SNY's way. Game over.
Nothing says they have to up their offer right away if they gain control of the board. We may see the PPS decline whether due entirely to there being no buyout, temporary weakness in the industry or overreaction to negative news on our pipeline. They could then bring back their offer of $52.50 and if PPS fell below it, it then becomes something the board could justify. This assumes there are no competing offers in the works which we are led to believe are being discussed behind the scenes right now with several companies.
After replacing MDVN board SNY comes up with 53 as best offer and there are no other bidder.. then what???
better to keep MDVN board
Sentiment: Strong Buy