After the runup off biotechs since the first of the year I raised my stops on all positions there this past w/e, got stopped out of all biotechs this week, including MDVN. I'll buy back in after the selloff. I was up 28% in my bio holdings from Jan. 1, I put my stops down about 4% so I'm booking a YTD gain of about 22% in biotechs, about 70% since last April. Biotechs have big selloffs about twice a year, had one last April then again in October. Both ended up being great buying opportunities.
I'll look at the sector again in a few weeks. Likely buy some MDVN back, maybe with a mixture of stock and longer dated options since I think we see a takeover bid in the next year (about 50/50 imo).
Here it comes - like clockwork. Now's the time to start buying the MDVN's, GILD's, CELG's, BIIB's of the world before the mm's start riding them up again. Scare, buy, run it up, scare again with the obligatory "bubble" press release , and repeat the process. I know these guys too well!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yeah, I heard there was a bloodbath. Seriously the speculative names and speculative unknowns were/are overdue to come in. But 25+% earnings growth does not come cheap. And buyers will be back if they ever leave.
A new all time high reached in the morning ($141.58) with a modest pullback, esp. in comparison to the down 3-5% in a lot of other biotechs. That makes me think that there could be something going on or at least a number of folks are expecting/hoping for a takeover. If biotech can catch a bid then MDVN could hit another ATH.
I think long term MDVN will be better off without a buyout offer, just my opinion of course.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think MDVN is ONE of the mid-cap bio stocks with a successful multi-billion dollar drug with explosive growth that's in play. A number of analysts have released lists since the PCYC takeout of similar stocks that could be in play and MDVN is on all the ones I've seen. Of course that doesn't mean it will happen, I have no idea of whether management wants to be bought out for one. As for time period, wish I knew, I'd load up the week before. ;)
I don't think Astellas is/was sandbagging either.
Do you think we'll see a buyout offer soon??
I don't think Astellas is/was sandbagging, if you read their reports they need Xtandi to be a success nearly as much as MDVN. MDVN and Astellas share marketing costs in the U.S., but X-U.S. Astellas pays all and gives a royalty to MDVN. I just think MDVN is more focused and aggressive. I also think that Astellas poor X-U.S. performance is why they hired a new global marketing guy on Jan. 15th and it wouldn't surprise me if MDVN didn't have a say in pushing/picking the guy, of course Japanese companies almost never admit any sort of error, per Astellas they are "on target".
Thanks, Keith. I assume Astellas and MDVN are fully aligned on the WW sales efforts. I mean obviously more sales is better all the way around but I recall you mentioning milestone payments due MDVN from Astellas and it makes one wonder if sandbagging wouldn't help rather than hurt Astellas.
JMP has the latest Symphony & IMS script data and now estimates 1st Q. sales 2015 at $298.8 million in the U.S., an increase from their estimate back in Feb., so sales seem to be accelerating a bit. You can find this on Twitter $MDVN posted on the 20th.
My guess is that since Astellas is responsible for reporting sales and this is the final quarter of their fiscal year that we won't get the results until the first part of May. Really hoping to see ww sales gaining traction, Zytiga should NOT be outselling Xtandi by 3 to 1 in overseas markets, Astellas needs to close the gap.
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AMAG is newly profitable, small cap. I own shares and think like MDVN its ripe for offshore buyout.
Sentiment: Strong Buy