Agree with your summary. In light of spectrum auction, I would suspect getting folks to sell shares might be tougher, except for the traders. World Cup and elections leading into that event should deliver strong financials across all companies in the space. All about risk reward assessment. If the broad markets take a hit, this sector will drop. The question is for how long. And what is the financial impact of the auction. Questions that remain to play out.
I think EVC will just be the laggard of the pack until we see a catalyst. Still has the weakest management in the sector. For a merger, the class b shares have to approve and Univision has to approve. I believe we will see some sort of merger of equals with SBSA a likely combination. The synergies would be great. The new CEO of the much smaller SBSA just got a 4+ year contract for $1.75 million. The preferred stockholders because they didn't get paid off got to elect two to the BOD's. I believe something will happen with SBSA whether it is EVC or not. I see 20-30%+ upside for GTN and EVC my favorites. DaninFW
Thanks again. Not a trader. Just looking at 1-3 year trends and trying to determine direction and magnitude. As always enjoy your comments in this sector. With Aereo out of the way and spectrum auction getting closer, what are your thoughts. Will it go with the pack or break on its own?
I believe everything is relative. Right now equities are better than bonds. Rates are already starting to move up over last 2 days. If rates go up a few percent than mortgage rates jump, etc. Housing starts to fall. Market looks ahead 6 months, etc. etc. It's always a cycle. Whether it starts now or later nobody knows. Many experts believe the next 10 years will only return 1.8% per annum. I have seen a few predict 4%. It's almost impossible to have double digit gains when market is selling for multiples of 25+........just common sense and basic math. It's just a bubble IMVHO. DaninFW
Thanks for reply. Could it be possible that nominal prices of assets are understanding the inflationary impact of the fed actions and are adjusting accordingly? Looking at the lost decade of returns in the 2000s would appear that some upward adjustment makes sense in light of earnings and no unusual market crashing stimulus.
I would add that I wouldn't be surprised if the overall market turned positive before the close. It makes for great trading. I am trading SD and HOV today. DaninFW
Again, I have been 80-85% cash for almost 2 years now. Sounds strange but I have probably made more money being 80-85% cash than if I had been fully invested. The 15-20% I do invest I tend to take more chances and because market has continued to go up my returns have been phenomenal.....about double or triple what I would have done if I had diversified. As I have posted for years now......the broadcast sector tends to go up or down double or triple the overall market. If market is up 1% they tend to be up 2-3% and if market is down 1% they tend to be down 2-3%. The overall market multiples are at about 25. The only time they have been that high has been 1929, 2000 and 2007. You know what happened those years. In 2007-2009 you would have lost everything you had made in the market since 1995. The market will correct or crash again. Whether it is now or in the near future......I am not that smart.......but it will happen. I have no problem holding EVC. DaninFW
Dan ... don't you think there will have to be volume to validate that statement? Particularly for this sector that has thin volume on down days. Just curious.
Today may well be the start of what I have been expecting for over a year........the start of a massive 15-20% market correction. However, it could well be a big buying opportunity. The FED minutes yesterday and concern for Q2 market earnings is creating a big downward spike. Europe and especially Portugal are big concerns again. Today will well be a big buying opportunity......or you may wish you had waited. Will be very interesting. I am holding for now. DaninFW
We should all be really glad that truth.monger is back. Rarely do you find someone that if you do the opposite of what they say you can get rich. He is such a person. He was still saying EVC was going to be $1 in a few months when EVC hit a low of $4.27.....and then it went to $6.55 less than a month later.......after saying that the Aereo decision was priced in. What a jewel of a call. One for posterity. EVC went up 53.4% after he said to dump. So, if you want to make a fortune simply do the opposite of what he says. BTW, I was still saying strong buy at $4.27.......DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Over the next 5 weeks we will see all the schedule 13 filings for Q2. Just 8 minutes ago, Hoplite Capital Management that manages just under $4 Billion in assets disclosed it took a new position in Q2 of 6.1 Million shares of SBGI or 8.5% of all shares. They are now the 3rd largest holder of record. With the earnings beat of AA after the close today and this news of SBGI we should be up tomorrow. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
truth.monger----not that you are pumpin again.....are we going to see your other two aliases as well......golf.messiah and outpissed? It must get confusing to post under three aliases. DaninFW
I was going to post this morning that you would be back today but knew if I did you might not post. Your masters in the boiler room are paying you to talk trash about EVC again. How funny. Also, stock has moved up almost 20 cents since you posted. Entire sector was down 5-8% this morning. Coming back now that they have shook out the weak hands. Was a steal at $5.85 to $5.90 this morning. Your ignorance never fails to amaze me. EVC is still up 20%+ after Aereo decision and was up over 30% as was entire sector. Boy, you called that one wrong. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well I'm glad there was a bump and hopefully some of you got out in time. Dan even had a chance to break even!
But reality is what it is. As in 2010, EVC's peak operating activity is almost behind us. Their debt has grown but their relevance has diminished as competitors have multiplied. Another small unprofitable acquisition, not any game changers and apparently there never will be a game changer for EVC. Why should there be? The CEO is pulling 1 million base plus bonus & free stock.
As was previously stated Aereo was & is a non-issue.
I apologize for not being around to offset Dan's hype. As always with this sort of volatile stock your time frame matters. You can gamble for a bump if that's your game. But given the exorbitant valuation and extensive headwinds a thoughtful educated longer term view will lead one to avoid EVC.
If you currently own EVC unless your cost is higher I would hold for $7.50+. If not currently in I would buy at $6.20+/-. The real buy was at $5+/-........I have an order in for 10,000 USCXW at $3.61 as we speak. I actually got just 7 shares one day, 100 the next and 756 the next. I buy whatever I can cheap on USCXW and am holding for $12+.....DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I have been tempted to sell as well but held when it dropped almost $1 from my average cost. Now I hate to sell it when it could make me another $120,000-$200,000......the more I look at this the more I am convinced there is a lot of room to run.....even with the worst management in the sector. The 2015 spectrum auctions is going to put a lot of eyeballs on this sector again. Big investors will be watching how much cash they get from monetizing unused assets. IMVHO after that we will see funds and buyout groups looking to buy cheap assets, to sell the spectrum and assets in pieces. In the next 4 years+/- EVC will double it's current retrans revenue. I have looked at Pulpo very closely. They will be prone to recommend tv and radio advertising on EVC properties. Besides adding to mobile and digital they will add synergies as well. Only a major market selloff could disrupt EVC from hitting $8 a share.......
I too am watching SD. Will start accumulation at $6.80-$6.90.........also looks like our USCR warrants are about to explode. At $25.95, USCR is 5 cents above the $25.90 top band of resistance. There is no more resistance until we get to lower band at $27.31....if we can hold above $25.90 we could easily pop $1.50-$2.00 in a few days. GLTA DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I sold off my 50K holding of EVC on Thursday at an average price of $6.42, great 2 week profit of $20.7K.
My plan had been to add to my SD 75K position. After reading your posts I will watch both SD and EVC and buy either one if there is a slight drop. Thank you for your continued analysis and postings. I had taken a small loss on my earlier EVC position when you warned of the AERO implications; it was hard to sale at a loss but in the long run I am way ahead, used proceeds to buy SD.