This was a group posting to 11 in our group today.EVC does have at least $2-3 in auction expectation in it. We need to remember that when trading. It looks cheap because it almost hit $10 but that was when everyone thought they were getting $500 million to a billion in spectrum money. I am beginning to suspect they will struggle to get $300 million to $500 million. At the lower amount they are a $7-8 stock and the higher amount $9-11. If they were to really surprise and come in at $800 million to a billion this could be a $13-15 stock. That's why I don't mind buying at $7+/-. I see very little if any downside. This is the poorest managed company in sector. They had an average FCF of $65 million 2 years ago and if they had not received $10 million from tower relo's they would not even be close now. They are only keeping 40% of their retrans and can't close a new contract with Univision after almost a year while sector appears to be getting about 45%. EVC pays the most reverse comp of any broadcaster and Univision is starting to fall to Telemundo. . Then, they are 1/3+ radio not broadcast that is marginally profitable if that. They also overpaid over $200 million for their radio assets. Do we trust them to invest the spectrum money? And, they have paid $20 million with earn outs for Pulpo which is barely making $1 million a year.......5% return and I even question that since they rolled their other digital businesses in it so you can't truly track.
You mentioned all the other sector stocks were undervalued. I agree. GTN, for instance, which I like the best compared to EVC is a steal. GTN sells for only 1.41X sales while EVC is 2.46X sales which includes radio. EVC is $7.13 and GTN $11.64 today. On that basis, GTN would be $20.30........
On an earnings basis since I don't have FCF close at hand.........EVC is expected to earn just 37 cents in 2016 and GTN $1.92. On that basis, GTN should be $60.40.......in 2017 GTN will earn only 98 cents while EVC earns 31 cents. E
As I told frank, I really don't know how but about a dozen people have sent me e-mails from Yahoo. If you post your e-mail I will be looking for it and send you a quick response. You can then delete your post or figure out how to send it privately. Sorry. DaninFW
I don't want to post my e-mail online for obvious reasons. I have had about 12 people send me e-mails via yahoo. Have not done it myself. Maybe one of them can share how. Don't give up. Mine is not a yahoo e-mail address. DaninFW
Dan, would love to join the email group. Not a big poster, but I would bring spectrum knowledge related to DoD. Been a long on USCR based on your advice. Happy to send bio. - please advise. Frank
Jim, nine of us have taken our discussions offline and communicate with daily group e-mails. You would be welcome if you e-mail me with a contact e-mail and a brief bio. I would have to ask the other members for approval. Dan