We have had a big seller last few days as I can tell by how my orders were filled. Someone just dumped a ton of shares at $7.35+/-..........and now someone just put in a buy order for 100,000 at $7.37........interesting. If big buyer is done we may pop soon. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Just finished buying another 40,000 EVC today at $7.35-$7.40 with an average cost for 100,000 shares just under $7.38 per share. If it makes a big pop may be tempted to sell and buy again but auction isn't far off. May be cutting it close trading but I have traded this thing so many times I probably have the equivalent of $11-12 a share if I had just held for the auction already. GLTA DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
FCC is at it again. They have put off releasing the final starting bids and now say they will come out at least 60 days before last date to sign up for the auction. Still next 30-45 days+/-......market looks like going to be extremely volatile next week or so at least. May trade or hold. Hard to say now. Will buy below $7.25 now and sell $8+/-........easy 5-10% for quick trade. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I still think for the risk reward that SD at some point will be a good buy. Over a billion in cash and assets to sell. Looking to enter set some point below 40 cents. The trick will be if oil gets back to $60 before they have to file bankruptcy. At less than 40 cents little risk as bankrupt companies often trade for more......always on rumor. Daninfw
Dan, hope all is well and congrats on the USCR play. Seeing that the Oil and Gas space has been decimated at this point, are you seeing any value in some of the bigger boys like CHK, COP, BP, etc? Seems like easy money over next 2-3 years in this space. This period for O&G reminds me of 2008-2009 for larger markets. Buy anything and if it survives you are making easy profits.
Bought 20,000 yesterday and 30,000 today at $7.40......now holding 50,000 at about $7.39+/- average cost. Expect a bump when final starting bids released in next few days. GLTA For EVC it's all about spectrum. Company worth more dead than alive. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks for your opinions. Do you see many more opportunities in the next few months to swing trade this or are you planning on going into a long holding position until the auction gains outcome clarity that drives the price to its zenith?
Market has only dropped this much this past week three times in history, once in 1994, once last year and now this year. All three times the market was higher a week later and a month later. Will history repeat? I am 68% cash as of today. Anything is possible. Starting bids for the auction are due out any day now. I think that will help some stocks in sector especially EVC. However, I am extremely cautious right now. If China doesn't do something tonight or tomorrow to stimulate their economy we could keep going down. I am waiting to see what China does tonight. I think there is a 50/50 chance EVC could test $7.00-$7.25 again after Friday. We are only 7 months away from the auction. I posted something on the GTN board you might want to read also on why sector crashed. Regardless of whether EVC hits $7 or $4 it is going to sell $5-10 worth of spectrum per share in the auction IMVHO. EVC is probably the only stock in the sector literally worth more dead than alive. They could sell all their spectrum for $20+ per share. I personally wish they would get out completely but Univision isn't going to let that happen. We have to settle for 40-50% of their real potential but shareholders will still own a potentially perceived declining business model. I currently plan to buy 100,000 EVC at $7........if it dips to $4-5 I will buy even more. It would be a gift. DaninFW
Just curious-what's your opinion on the overall market? The smell of fear is finally in the air...small correction or tanking like it is 2008....
If that happened, we could see EVC at $4 again...just before the auctions nonetheless!
One thing that came out yesterday may have helped EVC. The FCC said that Mexico would work with the FCC but they would only free up 84 mhz. If the FCC clears that amount it will add no extra value to EVC border stations. But, if the FCC clears up to 144% which they have not committed to, they will need more spectrum to do so since Mexico will not. That is one of the few positives for EVC last few days.
But, yesterday morning at 6:52 am ET, the Bernstein analyst declared that the current tv model is broken and it crashed the sector. Need to read the articles under "DIS" if you plan to stay in the sector. I did buy 20,000 GTN yesterday at the close at $12.29-$12.30 and now wish I had waited. Looks like things are going to get cheaper in the sector. JMVHO GLTA DaninFW
Headwinds have been strong for sector. Not a lot of good news.
1) FCC passing around order on syntext which will take leverage away from broadcasters in Retrans negotiations.
2) Marcu Ryvicker, top sector analyst, downgraded entire sector yesterday in favor of distributors not content providers.
3) Viewers dropped 3% this summer against last summer.
4) Ad revenues yesterday reported down for July but scatter was up.
5) Still chance of lawsuits to delay auction.
6) Top two legislators that orchestrated the spectrum auction are opposed to current rules.
I could go on and on. Habits are changing. I now watch Netflix streaming 6-10 hours a week myself and I'm 63. I would add an analyst yesterday said political looks great for 2016 for broadcasters but projects major erosion in 2020.
My point is it's about the spectrum. I like EVC #1, MEG #2 and GTN #3 but GTN has also said they will not participate in the auction. GLTA
It's been a while since I have posted, but I was wondering what you think of GTN? It's been an ugly day, and I believe DIS, oil and other factors are causing this huge sell off, but do you think GTn is worth buying at these levels? It's kind of strange that they smashed earnings (even though expenses are rising), yet it's been going down big. Thanks.
I would add, EVC may be getting pushed up by West Face before they file as they may be buying just to get another big pop when they file. I don't think WF will file till Monday. Interesting. I was just going to post before the pop it might be worth a quick trade if EVC dipped 15-20 cents today and sell on Monday. GLTA DaninFW
I am still out but plan to trade up to the auction. I see a constant Texas Two Step where EVC moves up 2 steps and down one where you buy and sell at the next pop. Market overall may well help after yesterday and looks like today. Hoping to get in at $7.25 to $7.35 again for the next ride. DaninFW
Going back to my $7.25-$7.35 entry point as I think it will fall further. Did some research today and saw where Just some food for thought but 2 analysts have $8 PT's on EVC and two have $9 PT's. Zack's also has a $9.25 PT. I got all upset again with this terrible management team. The analyst pointed out that the digital and media segment had $200,000 BCF in Q2 and stated that he expected more acquisitions. Do the math please. First off, to try and hide their blunder for overpayment of Pulpo Media, they rolled all their previous existing segments into it. They paid $18 million+/- alone just for Pulpo. This is the best quarter yet for digital and mobile. This means annualized we are looking at $800K a year for something they paid well over $18 million for. That's over 22X BCF not counting what they paid for pre-existing assets they always bragged about. It scares the hell out of me what these guys would buy if they don't redistribute the spectrum proceeds to shareholders. They will have about $60 million in cash at end of Q3. Kind of scary the way they waste assets. Some of you may remember but truth.monger when he posted on here stated they overpaid by hundreds of millions of dollars for their radio assets. And don't forget that radio revenues are doing outstanding right now......but contracts for 2 of the three top DJ's come up for renewal this year. Radio is marginally profitable now but won't be for long when the new contracts hit......and Heaven help them if one or two walk to another competitor who pays more. You don't think two of the top radio shows don't want more money? It's all about the spectrum for EVC. Everything else is crashing. Looks like today may be another real downer for total market. DaninFW