Imho 1360 is gonna be the wave c high.Today we have completed wave b (expanded flat) of wave e.Take care brotha and glta
Thanks for the complement, again you have been a good and patient teacher.
I know I really have some work on the corrections and also the reading the waves better. I will have to read up on the Fibonacci numbers and rules as well. And good old fashioned experience.
I will make a small admission, although I have spent most of working life in technical sales and finances (though not TA) I have a degree in engineering. Even though it was a long time ago, I can see where it has helped a little on the learning curve.
Hello Kathy, If the 1345 was the wave c high,it is almost exactly 38% fibonacci retracement and meets criteria for end of wave E and the start of the large wave 5 down. It is not ,as I replied to John's post, my preference but a close second
Alex do you not think the 145 was close enough to your 1350 or 1360 target or do you think there will be a final push. I hate being a pest but I get lost in EWA.
Indeed nice analysis John, at the rate that you are improving, soon your EWA views will be comparable to people with much more extensive experience. As to a trade, if it gets to the 1280 or so area with OS readings and positive divergences (lower gold price but higher momentum indicators (MACD,RSI) readings I may try a short term NUGT buy.
I have to admit that there is a small (very small) smile on my face. Although I know I have a long way to go especially with the corrections as I mentioned earlier, I may be getting this a little bit. 2 of my 3 possibilities are your 2 possibilities. This does reflect well on the teacher.
though I won't trade on it I was going to pick your original number of 1285.
In view of todays action two possibilities arise. One is that wave b has not ended and the other that 1345 was the end of wave c and therefore also E and the sharp selloff is the start of the last wave 5 of the gold bear market. In the first case (remember wave b must subdivide as a corrective wave that I will label (a) (b) (c) )There is a corrective pattern called expanding Flat in which wave (b) goes beyond start of wave (a) and wave (c) goes well beyond end of wave (a).So far the rules and guidelines for wave b expanding Flat are intact .This will only be invalidated if the current decline moves lower than 1256. If it does the preferred count moves to my above second case(start of wave 5 down). I have however no reliable target for the end of wave b other than anywhere from current to 1256. If you force me to make a choice ,I would go for scene 1 above with target my initial a few days ago of 1280 or so. I remain flat in my position.
I see the spot is down quite a bit. IMVHO this flies in the face of conventional wisdom that spot should be up due to Israel, Ukraine etc. I think it provides more proof that EWT works.
Since the action is showing something that is deeper from most likely scenario I am curious to your thoughts. If you don't mind I will mention a few thoughts (they may be invalid but that is how one learns). Is this just a deeper wave iv consolidation or is something else happening? This is a pretty strong in the opposite direction than wave v. I read where sometimes when a target is not met, it will revisit to that target which I believe was 1300 (maybe we didn't leave wave b). Or could Wave v have been met by the 1345 top?
I’ll save the other stuff for later. I don't want to be like a guest that won't leave.
I had not thought about EW that way, but you are correct. It is simpler and more precise however to learn to identify 5 and 3 wave patterns because you are certain ,if you counted correctly, that a nice move in the opposite direction of the end of the 5 or 3 wave pattern, is a certainty.
It is a bit early here so sometimes I am not clear until about my 3rd cup of coffee and sometimes more (A bit watery compared to the Greek coffee if memory serves me correctly). In addition to the above, I think I had just written 3 posts ( intensive for my level) and received a good "grade" from the "teacher" so wanted to be helpful. In my quest to be helpful and you pointing out the flaw, I can see that I could have created confusion as someone might think 4 moves up in sequence followed by 4 moves down which is not the case. I have a tendency to want to pass it down. I think I'll leave that alone.
Also I was working on another post, less on EWT but more on the 3X ETF's. I saw your reply on them. In my yet to be published post I had put an example with numbers to show what you were talking about. I have seen the term "decay" used I believe to describe the danger of holding long term. I backed off on posting for another time as I need to work some more on the numbers and I need to focus on learning the corrections. I think we can all agree these investments are short term and one should really understand them especially how they get the 3X.
On the post I was trying to really simplify to the point of just the direction of the waves. I was pointing out that there will be 4 waves 1,3,5, B in one direction with 4 waves in the other 2,4,A,C and that the 1,3,5,B sum will be greater than the 2,4,A,C sum. Though there is some time, the trick will be to identify when the C becomes Wave 1.
I know I do have a fair amount of work to do on the corrective. As you mention they can be tricky with different structures such as zig zag, flat and the "famous" triangle. My reference material mentions a 5,3,5 and 3,3,5 and 3,3,3,3,3 structure respectively. This was going to be my next lesson.
IMO the most important thing you said was EXIT STRATEGY. IF you can find a successful protocol for such, you will be a successful trader/investor. Your exit strategy will tell you whether to hang on and/or add to your position for months or years, or exit the same day for a loss. IMO generally 3X ETFs are very short term vehicles,since they lose a greater % in down moves than gain in an equal amount of up move. Ask the currently above water braggargs how far under water they are on their position from Sep 2011 or how big a loss they will have incurred when the market turns on them. I have no problem with slowly accumulating miners via individual companies or ETF(gdx,gdxj,gldx) for the long haul(years),but even here a strategy of taking partial profits is important.
John,I think you need some more study time . You do not understand the concept of degrees. If we start at the lowest possible degree, Elliott waves will form the basic 5 waves (IM) up followed by 3 waves corrective pattern down for a total of 8 waves. These same 8 waves will be only the 1st of the next higher degree 8 waves in the same pattern of IM followed by corrective sequence, and the fractal of same patterns continues upward. In each IM wave 1,3,5 are im themselves(they follow the rules of impulsive wave). while waves 2,4 are corrective. Even though corrective patterns are many and often difficult to identify,try to see if you can pick out this 5 followed by 3 basic pattern. If you can do so successfully, you know that after a 5 wave move there will always be a corrective retrace in the opposite direction and after a 3 wave move there will always be another 5 wave move again in the opposite direction( be careful, corrective moves are many and subdivide themselves ,therefore often throw one off). GL