I can disagree with this guy on many levels, but do not have time now for a long write up.
I'll just say that even $1305 is not making a dent in the bearish outlook. I'll even go on a limb and say this: if it does go to $1305ish and fails to break it (!!!) - it'll paint an extremely bearish picture for the 3-6 weeks following this failure, placing $1200, and possibly below, within the reach.
I believe we are as close as we’ve been, since this one year plus correction started, to actually follow through on the next impulse move down, which will take the PM complex to new lows for this bear market. Silver is sitting on a potential massive H&S top neckline also. It’s impossible to pin point the exact moment this next impulse leg down will begin but we have enough Chartology to strongly suggest the next major move for the precious metals complex will be down and not up. Keep a close eye on the bottom rail of gold’s triangle for the first big clue that the PM complex is headed lower. All the best…
Gold has held a higher low for the third consecutive session as the bears lost their slight edge. Despite the Dollar at the highest level in nearly a year, major support sat just below here in Gold as two major trend lines at 1271.5-1273.4 and 1266 proved to hold. Many investors are beginning to focus on next week’s ECB meeting which is followed the day after by Nonfarm Payroll. Simply put, this was not the time for Gold to violate major support levels and create a clear bear trend. Traders will focus on Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence and Case Schiller data and better than expected releases will likely stop this recovery in its tracks. Support will now come in at the 1281-1282 level and a close below here will negate this morning’s rally. Major resistance comes in at 1286.8 and the bulls must see a close above here in order to solidify a hold against the lows. Light headwind comes at the sessions highs and just above at 1291.7-1293 while major three star resistance comes in at 1296.9-1297.6 and only a close above here will signal a potential bullish move higher.
There is your spike.
I think with EWA, we were above 1280 before back to 1260. the steps in the path or patterns will provide more detail but at this point I believe the preference is back to 1340-1360.
I agree with your scenario trader.Nevertheless I insist that any trader should be open to any probabilty and never marry to any position whatsoever. The technical indicators that I watch are all pointing to a continuation of the bearish trend after we break from this consolidation period but hey the only thing certain in life is death and taxes and I am open and ready for any eventuality that might change the trajectory.Always be prepared ppl and do not trade on emotions.Stop loss in emotions out and you will sleep like a baby.
It looks to me like…
Even in the most bearish scenario....... a decline below $1270-1265, give or take a few bucks, will be preceded by a spike into $1290s-1300 area.
The bears must beware spot price going above $1345-1350 area. The price sustained above this level may very well mean “kaput” to the bear market all together. This one would go outside of the realm of “short term” (BH you owe me a six pack for this one).
Feels like I’ve already written this a few times in the recent past. Am I having a “Groundhog Day” moment? One way or another, this might be just important enough to reiterate even if I did.
I wish I could pin some probability numbers of bearish scenario vs. bullish, but, at this time, I can’t reasonably favor either one of the two. If somebody put a gun to my head and say choose or die, I’d pick bearish one. But who knows what can get into your head when you have a gun stuck to it, right?
As always this is JMHO.
If we are voting here, I vote for lower sooner than higher. Right now gold is at: 1278.5$ With the economic numbers humming along like they are we may see a 20$ drop before consumer confidence numbers report Tuesday morning. If consumer confidence and Case-Shiller generate good numbers, gold is going much lower. Cheers
This weekend I did a ton of driving. Please google Silver Canyon road from Bishop, CA. to Ancient Bristlecone Pine Forest . One heck of of a drive. Scratched the paint all over the place on my truck on buttermilk road near Bishop, CA. That's where I ran into a Navy pilot off for 3 weeks. He said if we went to war with China, we would get our butts kicked.
Gold and Silver will do what they do. Just don't sell at a loss. Long term veiw we will be safe from the collapse of the dollar. Again, JMHO.
Below 1257 the bears start preparations for a shindig.
If 1240 is violated ,the bears are drinking and dancing.
On the opposite end at 1340-1350 I start preparing an exit strategy from any long positions I may be holding. If we push past 1360 I start questioning longer term bearish case. If we leave 1388 behind us,the last nail in the bearish case is in.
Less dramatically stated, from current level(spot gold 1278) my preferred scenario calls for: down to 1255-1265 area ,then up to 1340-1360 and from there a new low probably below 1100.
Might be, driving back from Bishop, CA. today, I saw three billboards advertising we buy gold and silver. Still I believe we head lower even with the earthquake in Napa Valley this morning. I guess nobody really knows what will happen short term. I believe we are all in agreement that gold and Silver will and always will be long term investments. I believe the dollar is doomed and the rest of the world is sick and tired of the USA being the world police. So breaking it down for you, short term? Medium term? Long term, stack like you have never stacked before. I'm talking 2014 gold and silver eagles. If your Canadian, buy into Canada. Pick your target price and good luck. The way the world is now, we are all going to need it. Just make sure you have plenty of food, water, ammo, and practice of your go to SHTF. Yeah, were crazy preparing, so what. Better to be safe than sorry. JMHO.
Hmm, I haven't a clue to the direction of gold, but what I do realize is that the majority of the crowd is bearish. I think its time to buy!
I will take a shot, but unfortunately it will be nothing new.
I am using the EWA triangle trendlines. Near term 1310. The lower trendline was 1265 but IMVHO I think we will go higher as the upleg of very long triangle to around 1310. To be different, I'll say 1307. Then back down below 1273. I'll pick 1260 since the trendline will put it lower than the current one.
Just my WAG.
Bold enough to state that he sees a bullish move from here. Of course all TA systems are 100% accurate in hindsight. BTW he was referring to the major NY markets(Dow and S$P)
Trader ,I see no reason why you should get defensive. I believe that I have repeatedly shown my respect for your market savvy and your calls are probably the most accurate on this board. What I was hoping to get from you was the last 5 lines of your post. Your lines in the sand qualifying the bullish or bearish leg from here. Of course no one knows which way the triangle will break,but I'd love to hear your gut feeling , what comes first,1400 plus or below 1100. My gut feeling says sub 1100. I will post my lines in the sand after I see the Asian and European action on Monday.
Here is something about "bold"calls. I copied this written by Rambus from Gold Eagle web site.
... I would like to show you some charts that maybe saying this correction is over and the next impulse leg up is now getting underway. You never know 100% for sure if you are right until you can look back in hindsight.
How bold is this?
Alex, I do not know how to respond to your post without sounding defensive, which is a position I have no intention to be in.
You know better than most people on this board that I basically use support/resistance levels provided by static as well as moving attributes.
Static being levels where the price action has proven to be reversed one or multiple times, pivot points.
Moving targets are those provided by the price MAs, BBs ,Fib Retracements, RSI, MACD, and the whole bunch of others.
The $1265-1270 level is a great example of a static support level, has proven in the past to be strong enough to keep spot price above it from March to end of May this year. It got broken eventually, but has provided solid support in the last two months. Based on this, IMO is very reasonable to assume it’ll hold for a while. Is it written in stone? God, no. All support resistance levels get violated eventually.
Based on that I called a short term bottom at this level.
I called the $1310-1320 based on the UBB and 50 MA on daily chart. There is also a resistance point at $1310 that reversed the price several times in the past. As the moving resistance targets are descending with time so are my upper targets.
Well, I do not think you are going to argue with me if I say that no call has 100% probability. We have to make provisions for the scenarios of the support/resistance levels, static or moving, to be violated.
So I’ll make a call right here, right now:
If the $1310-1320 is violated, we’ll see $1400, quite possibly above this price ($1500?).
If the price reverses from this level and $1265-1270 support is violated, we are going to or likely below $1100 the timeframe here could be 10-12 months and it’s not happening on a straight line.
This is as bold as I can reasonably get. If I get any bolder than this, I may just find myself on the fool’s errand.
I also had recommened to my girlfriend of 14 years, still not married yet, to sell all of her investments in her Roth IRA and move it to a money market account. She made the move yesterday. Now she is now mostly in a money market fund now. It may have been early but at least she took profits and has very limited downside exposure if/when the stock market crashes.