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Hi Alex. Interesting to see you coming around to the manipulation. I believe there is some, although not sure to what extent. I recall you mentioning you believe in temporary factors (like fed minutes) as they are just that..temporary. But when invested in a 3x levered product like NUGT, one wrong "guess" on what the minutes will say can significantly impact the trade. For example, if the temporary move drops your trade by 20%, it becomes very difficult to make that up. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if some of the language doesn't get leaked ahead of time. Like Bighorn, I read zerohedge from time to time, and although I think they are over the top with the conspiracy theories, I also think there is some truth to some of the coincidences they point out. Anyway, as for TA/EW, I always appreciate the targets you and trader provide, as it serves as guide to watch for reversals.
Short term, good call. Longer term there is nowhere but up for gold. What happens when the data doesn't support a much anticipated rate hike later in the year? The dollar falls = good for gold. What happens when QE causes negative yields across the board in the Eurozone = good for gold. When happens when fear and uncertainly reach a climax = good for gold. What happens when the currencies wars escalate as they have = good for gold. That's the longer term view. Shorter term, who knows? What I do know is that the believe we're stuck in a trading range of $1,140 - $1,190 as most do can be dangerous.
At the risk of appearing patronizing,I salute your honesty and skepticism pertaining to the forces that move markets.Even though I firmly believe that technical analysis is the best method of improving the "small investor/trader's" probability of profitable trade/investment, I am coming around to the view that "manipulation"plays an important role.This manipulation can take the form of "conspiracy" as an agreement between the Fed and TBTF Banks to influence the price of a particular stock/commodity,insider info to "big" players, or ,as you suggest,the algos jumping on a particular signal and overshoot a market reaction. Therefore my take is that all I can do is to follow some technical signals that have proven helpful in the past, realizing that there is no Holy Grail of trading and occasional loss is a certainty,taking action soon enough to prevent becoming insolvent.
Hello Trader,I agree with your skepticism pertaining the investment advisory services and concur with your views on technical approach to trading. While evaluating and respecting others' trading views is often helpful, trading philosophy and action should be a personal decision.
Pertaining to your double top comments my "gut feeling" is that we will soon see a significant market correction, but have no idea when such may occur and we may well see a higher close on major market indices before a washout. I will not trade on gut feelings or weekly charts and the Fed,very fearful of a market crash, may attempt to continue levitating the markets where none have gone before.
Hi trader. I didn't check the chart (I'm not a chartist, so it isn't worth my time to try to figure it out,and even if I try, I won't be convinced I'm right). I started generally as a fundamental guy, but it didn't take me long to realize there is no way to determine which fundamentals are "priced in". At that point, I realized I have no clue. And most people, even pros don't have a clue either. I'm thinking there is something to the technical/EW analysis if for no other reason than algos and others think it works, therefore they trade on it working, ultimately causing it to work. With that said, from a fundamental standpoint, I read that around the end of the trading day or shortly after the close today that Yellen sees a rate hike this year. I'm curious if that was planned to "hide" the news late Friday so the market wouldn't crash today (as you probably know, releasing "negative" news on friday afternoons is a classic P.R. trick). So I'm curious to see the general market reaction Monday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a big selloff. Perhaps this will be the beginning of an overall selloff of more than 10%. Maybe the technicals and fundamentals are creating a perfect storm for a substantial drop? Might be a good time to either have dry powder or start a heavy short. Who knows, though, maybe this all priced in. Happy trading.
My biggest gains so far in 2015 have come from the picks I got from these guys. Ultimate Stock Alerts (search them in Google)
NUGT should be avoided, it cost me money. Now I am using picks from Ultimate Stock Alerts (do a Google search for them)
I am always taking EVERYTHING I read/hear on or about financial markets with the huge grain of salt.
I hate it when people selling newsletters tell me they are the only ones in the Universe who know about this particular company that will, without a doubt, be a ten bagger in six months time.
I hate those who sell fear/panic: everything is going to crash on my head no later than two weeks from today… unless I buy their newsletter that will most definitely save my finances and may be even my life. Etc, etc… most of you know what I am talking about.
Right or wrong I believe in conclusions I draw based on my own analysis. I can also appreciate somebody else’ analysis after I double check them and say: How could I possibly not notice this one.
Now… what I am going to present here is very simple, requires only very basic/minimal knowledge of technical patterns…
(I tried to give links to the charts here, didn't work. You can get them on Yahoo or any other charting site that allows custom time frame)
$SPX – S&P 500 Chart from Jan 1st 2000 to April of 2009
See anything interesting on this chart? The double top and the consequences?….
Now take a look at this:
$NSD – NASDAQ 100 Chart from Feb 1st 1998 to the current day:
See the double top? The consequences are yet to be painted…
Are they going to be identical to the once on the first chart? I do not know for sure, but inclined to think so.
One thing for sure: I am going to be watching every single development on this and all other major indexes charts very closely. I suggest you do too.
Have a great weekend!!!
As I said, Well have to agree to disagree on this particular pattern.
The price of spot gold 8-12-16 weeks from now will be the ultimate judge...
Watch out for my next topic on the general equity markets coming up soon, after market close.
IMO the chart you need to look at is Asian seasonal demand trends. My read is Nov-Mar is when they buy heavy and April and May are historically significantly down months. The AU market is quickly shifting to Asian domination. The US COMEX still slaps the price around with leveraged paper but is a pion player in the physical market. I think that only thing that has keep AU from going sub $1100 was record buying in China. First required buying to meet lunar new year demand followed by bargain shopping this month. Folks can focus on jobs reports and FED data all they want. But don't ignore where the real demand is. Shanghai delivery volume this month to date has exceeded US and EU consumer for the entirety of 2014. That's US and EU combined. Just a final perspective. Shanghai delivery volume for 1 March to 27 March is 5X COMEX delivery for all of 2014.