Sohn 2016 Winning Contest Idea: Short DexCom
This year's Sohn Investment Idea contest winner is Mark Grow, a first-year student at Columbia Business School. A five-person panel of judges, which included Bill Ackman and David Einhorn, evaluated his idea: shorting DexCom (DXCM).
DexCom is a medical-device company that makes insulin pumps. The stock currently trades around $60 a share and Grow says he believes it could fall to $20. The rational for the short is that Medtronic (MDT) and Abbot Laboratories (ABT) both have devices coming on the market soon that could take Deco's market share. From this, as well as other headwinds, Grow sees annual revenue per user from current DexCom customers falling by 30%.
Not only does DexCom face lost market share from competitors, Grow also says that only 35% of Type 1 diabetes patients use insulin pumps, despite the technology being available for decades. This means, in Grow's view, that lost market share is unlikely to be made up elsewhere. Over the last year, shares of the company fell 7% and fell as much #$%$ in after-hours trading Wednesday.
Absolutely. I've said the same. A lot of people on this board are the typical Yahoo message boards know nothing Johnny come lately, with zero knowledge of investing or the CGM/diabetes competitive landscape (one person's whole thesis is the elimination of finger pricks). I remember a period spanning YEARS where DXCM could not meet estimates. One quarter, for a whole variety of reasons that I can name, these guys are gonna miss big and this stock is going to lose half its value in a very, very short period of time.
Hey! Village idiot! Howzitgoing moron? I'm sorry I haven't logged on but I guess as usual I'm the puppet master. I pull your strings and you dance! 4 hours after I predicted you'd be here! Have a great day idiot!
Wow, for someone who has designed CGM's and has intimate knowledge of the space you just cant seem to get off this finger stick kick of yours. Thanks for explaining to all of us that diabetics have to stick their fingers and get calluses. Amazingly insightful!!!!
Lake: Lots of companies can create growth but without profitability it often means nothing unless it is a situation where a company (like AMZN) is doing it intentionally to gain market share and create moats. DXCM is not doing this. They just cant make money with their cost structure and model. Some of the largest flame outs (and in some cases frauds) over the past 2 decades have been companies that manufactured growth with zero profits. What is the value of a "fast growing" company that cant ever make $$????
The real news from the conference call was Dexcom may have FDA approval to eliminate finger stick calibration shortly.
FDA approval will quickly allow Dexcom to eat at the traditional Glucose Monitoring Market.
Lifescan, Abbott, any meter that does glucose monitoring, requires patient to draw blood and apply the sample to a strip 7 to 15 times a day.
Calluses caused by lancing fingers,The Bio Hazard of disposing Blood and Dosed Strips, Needles and how to Safely Disposing used Needles, and Inconvenience. All go away with FDA approval.
Once FDA approval happens patients can use Medicare to cover the cost for Dexcom supplies.
No more testing on the horizon! This and so much other awesome technology being developed and researched that will soon make CGMs obsolete.
A recent paper published in Nature by a team of researchers that included scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Joslin’s Dr. Gordon Weir announced the successful testing of a new material (modified alginates) intended to protect newly transplanted beta cells from the type 1 autoimmune attack. This material could prove to be the key to encapsulating implanted beta cells which could release insulin and, at the same time, not induce immune responses from the host.
While encapsulated islets wouldn’t be a complete cure—that would require something to also halt the body’s autoimmunity to beta cells—it would allow beta cells to act naturally, freeing people with type 1 diabetes from multiple daily injections, untethering them from pumps, and ending glucose testing.
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With the latest algorithm update, Dexcom became the most accurate CGM system on the market. FDA-approved sensor life is 7 days, but most people would restart sensor when it expires it tends to track accurately on the 2nd and 3rd week.The most recent version of the system, Dexcom G5, is already shipping in the Unites States and the United Kingdom. There is a new app Dexcom Clarity which spots glucose insights. G5 has features such as displaying CGM data directly on a smartphone, without having to keep a Dexcom receiver around. Data can be transmitted to iOS devices and Apple watches (USA) or a variety of other devices worldwide thanks to Nightscout‘s do-it-yourself projects. There are still things to tweak in G5; here is a review.
Medtronic sells CGM sensors which connect to their insulin pumps. Stand-alone devices are also available. Medtronic sensors are statistically less accurate than Dexcom (MARD 13.6%), which can be frustrating for some users. Approved sensor life is 6 days; in practice people would restart it, to make 10-12 days out of
Hey everyone! The village idiot is on a roll! Whassup eejit?
Yep, looking good. And let's not forget that the village idiot will be replying to you soon!
DXCM has made a +$13 dollar run from from $59 last Wednesday to $72 mid-day Today.
This all ahead of earnings call in a few weeks. Last earnings call DXCM beat all analyst expectations turning profitable when they were expected to lose 2 cents a share. !!!
Hey.....you are posting under too many different aliases Herb. And they are all equally stupid. Can you tell us again the technical design advantages of the dxcm advice over rivals since you designed so many cgm's in your career? You ignore and refuse to answer that simple question despite claiming to be an expert in the field. I figured since you are so giddy with excitement today maybe you will change your mind and enlighten us all. Unless of course you are just making everything up........
I really hate to introduce actual facts into this discussion.....but the approximate "days to cover" for DXCM as of today is 3.57 days.
broke over 100 week moving ag at $63.50 ..heading to $74 short term after earnings $85 to $89 +
Sentiment: Strong Buy