@jdom4 did you listen to the Gary Shilling interview on yahoo finance ? he's still calling for no rate hike in 2015 and the 30 year t-bond to hit 1 percent, if that happens then VWEHX will be under rough price pressure and the yield will go up by way of share price decline.
wnb1929, I called Vanguard and spoke to an Analyst. IF the 10 year moves up just 1% we can expect a 4% drop in the NAV of VWEHX. We probably wont see a 1% move BUT "the market" will move the price like we did get that increase.Also, IMHO, as the WTI on OIL settles probably by mid 2015 at say $75, the "net effect" because of the volatility could drive VWEHX down to the $5.25 area. I have been reinvesting forever and taking some distributions BUT IF the NAV does hit $5,25 and the resulting interest rates rise we may see a 6% return on VWEHX. ONLY MY VERY, VERY HUMBLE OPINION. THAT is the way I am going to play this "latest MESS". Regards Jdom4
@jdom4--It's looking like my buy at $5.80 may be to early, you may be right at $5.50. I'm thinking maybe $5.75 would be a good spot to do some bottom fishing, what do you think ? Good luck to you and other VWEHX shareholders.
I like the fund but had to sell it at 5.94 because I expected it to drop much more with so many people down on hi yield in general.. I've saved nine cents per share which is equivalent to 3.5 months of div's. So,I guess i made a good decision.
Of course,Vanguard won't let me back into the fund for 60 days unless I send them a letter.
I don't think we will see the dividend increase anytime soon. I am hoping it won't go down much. really no where to hide these days. Gold is iffy, stocks risky, cash buried in the back yard earns zero. Reinvesting your dividends now buys a lot more shares each month so in the long run this can be a good thing. Tighten the belt, enjoy cheaper wines, stay healthy. C'est la vie. This too shall pass. GLL
Yes, this has been on the downside over the past 2 weeks. However, as the saying goes: "Buy the Manager, not the fund". The Manager of this fund STILL gives us investores a high yield and strong total returns. I'm reinvesting to buy more shares, as this is still a very attractive value (income) and will continue to be so. My relatives and I have been in this fund since 2004 and the monthly check of over 5.3% is hard to beat.
VWEHX is faring much better than most junk funds. Last 6 months JNK is down 9.54%, VWEHX is down 4.55%
I always thought that was why the div was somewhat less. But it seems to be dropping the same as other funds and has a lousy div to boot.
Whether coincidence or not, the last time the stock market crashed was when the junk bond crashed first. We are seeing a drop in the junk, but is it year end profit taking or is it a forecast of the future?
Thank you. I hope you are correct. Looks like VWEHX has a 11.1% exposure to energy SO, you just may be very correct. Have a good day.
"Dividend $0.02687 11/28/2014".
That is the second lowest this year. Only consolation is share price is down so I reinvested at a lower price and thus got more shares. Still in long term holding pattern and hoping for better yield in 2 years when my RMD kicks in. Patience and GLL
bush.wacker AND c_Imcclure LOOKS LIKE both of you are correct on OIL. ALL I have been able to see is that some refinancing may need to happen in the marketplace with some "on the edge" companies needing money AND they will be paying much higher rates on "new money" which will drive up high yield bonds in 2nd half of 2015. WHAT do you folks think on a bottom for VWEHX NAV ? I want to again buy more BUT IMHO we may hit a low of around $5.50. YOUR thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Regards, jdom4
Yep. That's right. It's a TOTAL over reaction by the market to the low short term oil prices. Junk bond funds typically have 15%-20% of their holdings in oil companies,especially the lower rated shale ones. The market seems to think these companies are all going to default. It's BS.
If you want to see something sad look at where the price of HYLD has gone. It once was at around 52. Now it's under 45. But this fund has 22% in oil and energy.
The next thing that we have to worry about is when the FED will raise rates. This has been going on since July. It's like a slow torture. One FED person says they will raise rates in the middle of June. Someone else will say not until 2016. In the meantime it's a tough water to navigate with high yield.