Quest has signed up with Sloan Kettering to try to compete with FMI so this should, in theory, be a huge boost for CLRX business. There is so much value potential in what FMI is doing...it's extremely cheap...I suspect this industry will develop similar to medical electronic record keeping. I see a company like AthenaHealth partnering with FMI, and FMI partnering with BIOC to add blood-based testing results (not just tissue) into their database...ultimately, I see a lot of information tying into to the Medical Record. FMI is really a game-changer in how oncologists treat patients...nearly 30% changed their decision making based on FMI's info. That's staggering...and enormous savings. Soon, that type of data will be front-end in terms of preventive medicine. And, similar databases can be developed for non-cancer gene based disease.
How low can this go? As low as someone is willing to dig to bury a turd. Under a buck for sure within six months to threaten delisting, that's Mika's curtain call for yet ANOTHER reverse spit on the share"holers". Perfect timing with October right around the corner with a weak overall market to blame! Yup! Bear trap WAS set in the cage alright. Now you will not see it above $2 with the need for a reverse spit with new money coming in AGAIN! Will save any good news now and combine it with earnings (I should say the LOSS report) after the spit takes place. I predict a very quite period now with the share price drifting lower and lower. Of course, I have been all wrong over the years according to Mika so what do I know. Best not to listen to him (like the Wizard of Oz on the big screen) and just look at the facts and results. Finally, I think people are starting to realize that and the money pump is drying up on him. This last one was just a six month squirt! Go Tegal! Oh, that's right. That company does not exist anymore after going through what $120 million or so. Peanuts on Wall Street! They have plenty of money to waste. EQ
A terrific concept that FMI has been able to implement, resulting in a huge market cap of over $500 million versus our $4 million [with 1/2 of that in cash]. Can't understand why a Quest or some major lab wouldn't want this product to add to the services they provide. After all this time it is probably time to put the company up for sale and see what we can get. Without management being able to ramp up sales significantly, shareholders would have to look forward to more secondary offerings. Might surprise us what another company might pay for our product in a sale?
pretty low -- until these guys can prove to (or convince) the market that their business model can generate significant real revenues and cash flow... this is merely a "concept" stock at this point in time (albeit a good concept, but I think the best scenario based on the fact they will need more cash soon is to sell out to a 3rd party-- probably at not the greatest premium unfortunately for current shareholders)
Hey! Will the new people ever be able to sell for more than the $2 they just paid? Or did they set a bear trap while they were caged? I predict one chance coming up to get out over $2 with some PR hype. After that it's down under a buck and the NAS delisting threat (AGAIN!) to justify a reverse spit on the share"holers" to set up yet another secondary and Mika payday. They are so LUCKY to have such a LOYAL DEVOTED employee who would NEVER ever dream of LEAVING on his own like most people would have done by now. Like bubble gum on the bottom of a shoe he keeps telling the foot where to step! EQ
Dilution was much lower than I thought it would be. Pricing is where I expected given Aegis was the underwriter and they are not very good. Based on some other companies that I've followed, I've noticed they really don't do spot secondaries well at all...don't have the institutional footprint compared to better shops. I think Mika didn't want to give the house away and that's why you only saw 1 million shares offered, which adds another 9 months of cash to the balance sheet. Curious to know which institutions stepped up to buy shares...
Sorry, but you have your "reverse spits" mixed up! It may be hard for you to believe that there is actually someone else that thinks like me, but there is. I saw the "reverse spit" reference this morning, but let it go. I have only used that phrase to refer to actual reverse spits on the share"holers". Looks like we did not get spit on this time. I went through two of them with Tegal. First a 1 for 12 and then a 1 for 5 if I recall. My 7,000 shares became a mere 116.67 shares. Not enough shares outstanding now to do one this time, but as you suggest in a year there will be another secondary and at that time expect one. I predict a 1 for 4 first to dilute and then the secondary with the new shares. You might have learned this had you owned Tegal on how the game is played by "your guy" you have so much confidence in. The one with unlimited resources and time to get it right, no matter what industry he choses to be an expert in with no prior experience. He has no formal medical experience BTW, nor software either! But, what do I know. I am only a dune sitting on the sidelines now that everybody hates because I remember the past and pay attention to the numbers. EQ
I think getting out of Tegal and getting into CLRX when they did was a stroke of management genius. People told Mica he needed to bring in a heavy hitter to his board with real genetic / dna / testing experience and he did just that with the Chief Medical Officer of Life Technologies...that's not a slouch move. Tennenbaum did little with CLRX...he had some things in place but no deals. Mika has signed deals, with some big players. CLRX should really still be private and VC funded...this secondary should really be a Series B round. So, if at the end of this round of dilution, existing shareholders still have over 50% of the equity, that would be right in line with this firm's still development stage. I actually expect 1 more financing round after this...with existing shareholders ultimately holding 25% of the equity. But that 25% will be worth a hell of a lot of value.
You did get Affymetrix, Life Technologies, and Quest Diagnostics to use your service if it isn't good...whether CLRX is giving it away or not. So, there's a lot of value in the service, and ultimately, a ton of value in the data if CLRX can capture it....which is something that needs to be asked on the next conference call.
Now, if Mika is smart, he'll bring in a heavy hitter on the advertising front...because he's focused on that revenue, even though the revenue / test and the big data revenue (if it can be harnessed) are highly attractive.
Being a great investor is being willing to take emotion out of the context of your investment decisions. You are emotionlly scarred and should not invest in CLRX or short it really for that matter given your desire to knock Mika on his #$%$.
But, at the end of the day, proof is with revenue and earnings. So, time will tell whether Mika has turned Tegal #$%$ into CLRX gold. At least the CMO of Life Technologies was willing to do a transaction with CLRX and sit on its board of directors. That's a rather attractive endorsement.
Talk is cheap, especially when you are spending someone else's money, collecting a $300K salary and cannot be fired because of a huge severance package that is not based upon performance. It's been over 10 years now of talk, talk, and more talk. Most tests are timed and do not involve unlimited amounts of money and resources. Yet, here we are again going through another secondary with this guy in charge! You have no idea how many there have been before this point and I have lost count. But, give him your money! Give him more time. I am waiting for only one reason. His emails that said how much he was doing right and how wrong I was. That was about ten years ago. So you have a while to go till you walk in my shoes. I am long past the money lost. I am only looking for one thing, accountability. So far I have not seen any sign of it! But open up your pockets and talk, talk, talk all you want! He also loves to talk. But, the business world does not measure success that way. Hint: Look at the numbers! They don't lie! EQ
You can crush Mika all you want. He blew up your savings. We all know that. You are on here every week badgered Mika, warning investors that he'll fleece them like you got fleeced. This is your place to find solace....we get it. We all understand. We feel your pain. We appreciate your warnings. We really do. But, the reality is several fold:
1) CLRX has made substantially more progress under Mika than it did under its founder, Marty Tenenbaum. So, any fear that you identified on the expiration of the non-compete in 2 years shouldn't bother anyone.
2) Mika hired Paul Billings, the former Chief Medical Officer of Life Technologies, to the Board. This was a very profound and astute appointment.
3) A secondary may not have been exactly foretold, but given the run-rate of cash flow usage and the start-up nature of CLRX, nobody should be surprised. We're only just getting going with NGS testing.
4) Mika has done a damn good job signing up some massive names like Quest Diagnostics and Life Technologies to use the CLRX information, and the MedPage app is also a pretty smart move given the potential distribution to oncologists. Foundation Medicine has built a dynamic organization and their whole gene testing ability, data analysis, and data bank blows away anything that any other diagnostic firm is doing. But, if you're another testing firm, like Quest and Life, you still need the output data information that CLRX is producing since you are unlikely to work with Foundation Medicine as they are a competitor. So, CLRX actually has a very attractive market position.
5) The Revenue model is the biggest question mark at CLRX as Mika is focused on an advertising based model with some revenue from each test. The limited revenue to date is mainly reimbursement revenue from Life and some from MedPage. Some of the secondary offering funds should be used to build up the sales & marketing & advertising team to support Mika's vision.
Add to CLRX post offering