Thanks for the info. Glad you're on board.
I don't believe any of us had much of an insight into
this part of the equation. Just hope they hurry up and
approve their process for large commercial application.
Their turnaround has taken way to long....
Eberwein is head of Lone Star Value Management. They are a fund specifically focused on turnarounds and deep value plays. They go into companies that are poorly run, they shake things up, cut costs and overhead, return the company to profitability, and all shareholders win. Eberwein has a very high success record. He received his training working for Soros. I've been involved with 3 Eberwein situations over the past 2 years and all have worked out very well. He is very good at what he does. Considering the investment that was made and that Climaco remains on both boards, my belief is that any involvement by Eberwein/DRAD is on very friendly terms.
But I can tell you that PESI execs won't let company go for
less than $8/share, and even that's too low. The $8 would be the split-adjusted equivalent of what they were 4 years ago...which was pretty much a norm for the.
They're got to believe they're worth more than that now. Actually, if we factored in the value of their
Polish-based subsidiary (or if the U.S. market credited them with the value of that subsidary's overseas listing) we'd probably be at $6-7 now....
At a minimum, we know that several medical diagnostic imaging companies that use Tech-99 are already lining up non-HEU sources of supply, even in advance of commercial viability being established and FDA approval. Most of them will want multiple sources of supply.
hansyklerk - I have no idea what the end game is. However, for Eberwein/DRAD to make the investment in the Tc-99m company is an indication that one way or another they intend to benefit by significantly more than the amount of the investment. I know Eberwein and how he operates. Should PESI shares continue to stagnate, it would not be out of the question for Eberwein to make a large (and continued) investment via share purchase or an offer for all of PESI outright.
What do you think DRAD's agenda is w/re: to PESI? What is their endgame--just a small investment in the Permafix Medical sub as a "flier" and ultimately a possible source supply of Tech-99 at a preferred rate (if approved), or something bigger? The mix and history of DRAD and PESI and Mr. Climaco's hire broaches some interesting scenarios does it not? None of the inter-involvement is a coincidence.
I also think the DOE has its snout in this too, sniffing around (what they call lending a helping hand to produce a non-HEU source of Tech-99). Really need to keep the government out of private enterprise. Having them involved is a sure fire way to mess the whole deal up. You want the government (other than FDA approval) to have zero involvement in this and zero call on its future if successful.
I see also that NorthStar Medical radioisotopes is already in this area and has a relationship w/both GE Healthcare and Triad Isotopes, so I wonder what the edge is that PESI has? Is it who ever gets there first, or something else. GE has very deep pockets.
None of us really have the answers you seek. But they already have credible partners and investors -- people with a lot more technical knowledge and expertise than we. They also got that grant, which is free money. Credibility arises from a community of knowledgeable people willing to throw in with them.
thx. for response. IIRC from most recent CC they implied they could begin seeking FDA and Europe approval/application almost at the same time if the scale up and design proves up. Two questions. Lots of things work and are technically doable, but do not make commercial sense. How confident can we be that this makes sense commercially w/o use of a large nuclear reactor? If it is "smaller batch" processing in smaller volumes from small research reactors do the economics still work, or is there a way to scale up to size so that it does makes sense from a profitability standpoint? I guess that is what the next step is all about. Secondly, once submitted, how much quicker could EU approval be obtained, hypothetically, than FDA approval if submitted simultaneously? Also, having trouble bridging the 2-3 year time frame to fruition vs. a supply crisis for Tech-99 within a year. What happens during the gap? They also said they expected to be full-scale by the end of 2015 and apply to the FDA shortly thereafter, so I am confused by the timeline here. But in theory you might expect the share price could react to each and any of several marker events:news that the scale -up proved feasible, that EU approval was obtained, that FDA approval was obtained, that orders were received, and so on. Also I assume that Tech-99 however produced is all the same and the quality of diagnostic imaging would be comparable w/PESI's method.
The Medical Isotope business ... can't get my arms around as to how it plays out. PESI has a proprietary patented process here. That is fact. When Chalk River closes they could also have a near monopoly on a preferred way to make Tech-99 in a couple years. But I worry about government intrusion in the interest of the "common weal" for a process, maybe the only process, that can save tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of lives of the American citizenry via medical diagnostic imaging ... like eminent domain, where the government intercedes itself for the benefit of the greater good and tries to limit the profit potential of such a process. They try to do it all the time w/life-saving drugs, especially Democrats who constantly bemoan "profiteering" by private pharma--- ignoring the decade or more and often billions of dollars of expense to discover and bring a drug to market. The government is expert at meddling, regulating, restricting, and even confiscating (it's tax time as we all know) what rightfully belongs to others in the name (or guise) of protecting the greater good. If the PESI process works and is commercially viable, they should be allowed to charge whatever the market will bear. But if they are one of the only source providers, I wonder how it all plays out. It's their patents, their discovered technology, their investment and know-how to be sure. Less"
Couple of responses: they picked overseas because approval process in quicker and easier there. As I recall, will get approval in Europe before U.S.
There are already several involved parties and investors in this. Gov't not going to restrict pricing... There are recent drugs that fetch $10,000 or more per treatment. This new process is actually cheaper and easier for producing isotopes. Even if PESI kept same pricing as currently exists, they'd could make profit per unit with their lowest-cost methodology.
But I guess that is only a consideration further down the road and won't drive near term stock action. Stokluver, I agree if the process is commercial viable, the share price should pop quite significantly. Is the medical sub a foreign sub?, Maybe there is a reason they seeded it and listed it and ran it out of Poland via a shell company. The guys running PESI are smart about stuff like that. I don't think it is because it was the only place they could raise money.
The Medical Isotope business is the key, the home run swing for the fences that can clear all the bases. First it needs to work and then it needs to be scaleable. But there is a third consideration I can't get my arms around as to how it plays out. PESI has a proprietary patented process here. That is fact. When Chalk River closes they could also have a near monopoly on a preferred way to make Tech-99 in a couple years. But I worry about government intrusion in the interest of the "common weal" for a process, maybe the only process, that can save tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of lives of the American citizenry via medical diagnostic imaging (of course it would be applicable outside the U..S. as well). It's probably not an issue, but I wonder about an analog, like eminent domain, where the government intercedes itself for the benefit of the greater good and tries to limit the profit potential of such a process. They try to do it all the time w/life-saving drugs, especially Democrats who constantly bemoan "profiteering" by private pharma--- ignoring the decade or more and often billions of dollars of expense to discover and bring a drug to market. The government is expert at meddling, regulating, restricting, and even confiscating (it's tax time as we all know) what rightfully belongs to others in the name (or guise) of protecting the greater good. If the PESI process works and is commercially viable, they should be allowed to charge whatever the market will bear. But if they are one of the only source providers, I wonder how it all plays out. It's their patents, their discovered technology, their investment and know-how to be sure.
Probably would take a shock besides expected Q1 earnings to take into 2's on any kind of sustained basis. Sub 3's happened over a period of about 3 months in Summer '13 when company was on ropes. Granted co. did issue $3M in warrants to purchase at post-split price of $2.25 at that time, but there has been insider buying at twice that price since. View possibility of downward shocks balanced with potential for positive impacts -- even for the base business alone. Positive news indicating an acceleration of isotope business (or other expedited means to release its value) would be gravy.
Honestly not sure where to place absolute value of company. However, constantly reminding where company has been, what management has said and done, and comparing to where stock price has been in light of changed circumstances enables a better assessment of when the company would be very undervalued. IMO, a 15 to 20 percent fall from here would definitely put the company in that category absent a severe deterioration in its base business or prospects for commercializing its isotope technology.
Never ceased to be amazed by how a little bit of earnings or other company news manifests in such large variations in a company's stock price. Does the value really change that quickly? Just can't help but think that it doesn't.
Huh? How can you say regardless of seasonality? PESI typically loses money in Q4 & Q1 every year. This is from the 10K:
Our operations are subject to seasonal factors, which cause our revenues to fluctuate.
We have historically experienced reduced revenues and losses during the first and fourth quarters of our fiscal years due to a seasonal slowdown in operations from poor weather conditions, overall reduced activities during these periods resulting from holiday periods, and finalization of government budgets during the fourth quarter of each year.
It was actually impressive that they earned .09/share in Q4. Yes Q1 will be a loss, but we knew that. Should still be a sharp improvement over the year ago loss (and the stock was trading higher last year with that bigger loss and less bullish outlook).
Then we have seasonally strong Q2 & Q3 to look forward to. PESI could earn .20+/share in each of those quarters. If that happens, stock will be back near $5. If not higher. I do agree that it's the Medical division that will really launch PESI to double digits. I think more of a 2016 story, but they sure seem to have the right product in a market that will see huge demand next year.