E-Ink requested the IPR board to include SPDs (RFI's technology) and EPDs (their technology) under the broader term "light valves" so they could attack the '185 patent using * EPD* prior art patents 6,400,492, (Morita) and 4,919,521 (Tada), as well as Bob Saxe's earlier patent 5,650,872, Light Valve Containing Ultrafine Particles." It mentions a range of metal oxides and metal salts potentially useful in SPDs.
They also tried to invalidate it using Sasoke patent 6,221,147, "Bismuth Manganese Oxide," as prior art. Bismuth manganese oxide is one of the pigment particles mentioned in the '185 patent as preferred for use in SPDs.
I don't claim to know whether or not E-Ink should have been citing the '185 patent, but much of their technology dates to years before that patent was filed in 2001. Many E-Ink patents DO cite RFI's early, and now expired, work.
E-Ink's approach from the get-go is that SPDs and EPDs aren't the same, but if the court should decide that they are, then RFI has been infringing on EPD technology. As of December, they were still at it, and for all I know their latest effort will do what the IPR didn't.
It ain't over until it's over, don't count your chickens, etc., etc., etc.
I have no idea what your question is, but here's some math:
15K coupes annually equals 288 weekly.
100K sedans annually equals 1923 weekly. I expect that figure to fluctuate, but it's the best I can do.
If the sedans are scheduled for showrooms sometime between early May and late June, and the coupe and sedan production timelines are a similar 3.5 months, sedan production would begin sometime between mid-January and mid-March. Choose your own take rate.
We'll see coupe revenues in the Q4 and Q1 reports. Depending on Asahi's payment schedule, which we don't know, we could see some sedan revenues in Q1; definitely in Q2.
May I ask where else you do your DD?
Bard, please disregard previous post if you were trying to make a comparison concerning production time of 3.5 months. Still remains a discrepancy of 15,000 coupes annually vs. 100,000+ annually.
Yes, well aware of s coupe production. Check again, the discussion concerned the s class sedan w/msc option. That is where the 100,000+ production numbers have been predicted.
You guys can dissect the ip lawsuit, I'll sit back an learn. I like the numbers and consensus is that we may come in a little light in Q4. Must admit my numbers are 50% less than the lone analyst (who by the way was not too far off last quarter). So I may be very conservative, which is ok with me. If revs come in higher than that the second half of 2015 could be looking quite promising.
I think this is the decision that makes the case look very good for REFR.
Ex. 1001, col. 1, ll. 18–22. Thus, based on the explicit definition set forth in
the specification, we construe “light valve” to mean “a cell formed of two
walls that are spaced apart by a small distance, at least one wall being
transparent, the walls having electrodes thereon usually in the form of
transparent conductive coatings.”
We further determine an SPD light valve is not synonymous with light
valve, but instead is a subset of light valves, namely suspended particle
device light valves.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
In the IPR E-Ink wanted "light valve" and "SPD light valve" to be synonymous. That's because they used this patent to develop their epaper. The fact they didn't cite it is the whole case.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
" I think the failure of E-Ink to invalidate one of the patents is in REFR's favor since so many E-Ink patents are using that patent to further develop epaper."
E Ink attempted to have the IPR invalidate RFI's patent 6,606,185. I haven't found any E Ink patent citing it. They do cite several expried RFI patents.
Production of the S-class coupe began on June 12, 2014, the day of the shareholder meaning.
The first S-class coupes began showing up in showrooms on Sept. 27, roughly 3 1/2 months later.
I think the fee income will be lower but the EPS loss will also be lower than 2013. They would need to book 1,004,455 for Q4. With only 10,000 S-Class produced in the last two quarters of 2014, I doubt those revenues will be 1 million+. The 2015 numbers Q1 and Q2 will give a better idea of profits on the S-Class. 2014 is 1/10 of the sales to come.
Reading about the lawsuit, that's a wild card that may show up in 2015, but it looks like ADR is the way to go if REFR wants to make E-Ink a licensee. I think the failure of E-Ink to invalidate one of the patents is in REFR's favor since so many E-Ink patents are using that patent to further develop epaper. If damages are paid and if E-Ink and the other defendants decide to partner with REFR, the first will give shareholders a large one-time dividend and then royalties coming in, and the news of this settlement will jump start the stock. The street knows E-Ink and if they partner with REFR after this, the sky is the limit for the stock price.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Sorry bug, once again check your numbers (if you want to be accurate).
2014 fees.....? maybe.....maybe not
I know the trend is your friend....and you show one.
The matter I was pointing out was that the ANNUAL revenue for 2014 does not look like it will hit $2MM+ as it did in 2013 or 2012.
So what looks like a lower take rate to me is that the REFR top line revenues are down on a YOY basis and on a earlier introduction in 2012.
It's not hope that Mercedes will add more MSC to their luxury modes, because they have had success with it and they expect S-Class to out sell MSC option. That's Daimler's expectation is based on their communication with dealers. Asahi is not going into this without a minimum number from Daimler. They're a part of huge billion dollar company, Nippon Glass.
What evidence is out there that would show MSC will not be a desired option? If there was Daimler would know. They advertise MSC almost as if wasn't an option, but standard. And it was pointed out in the conference call that it will become a standard sooner than later due to the effect on carbon omissions.
If you shorts are holding on to that pipe dream, you're going to further and further in the red than you already are.
E-Class announcement will further solidify Mercedes commitment and the sales of MSC. I think the S-Class changed the game. Mercedes is in hot competition with BMW and Audi for the luxury market. MSC is part of the plan to differentiate their and tie it to the CO2 emissions.
Keep trying to pretend otherwise, I guess this last ditch effort must seem "make or break" to you. To investors it's a bullish sign of just how much trouble the short position is in.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Better check your numbers bug.
1st Q 2014 revs....$308,317
2nd Q 2014 revs...$395,619.....28% increase
3rd Q 2014 revs....$452,937.....14% increase
so your take rate theory is just that.....theory. Less production of sl and slks as time goes on.
4th Q should show acceleration of s coupe royalties.
So your stinker theory on 4th Q could just be that.......a stinker!
Lester, there remain some things you 1) IGNORE and some things 2) you HOPE for--but don't know
1) Lester, you IGNORE the core problems with this company in:
* The business model. Management doesn't control its own destiny
* The Board of Impotents--they don't help and cannot help management or the Company
* Declining revenues show that the take rate on the SL and SLK are also declining. And Mercedes is happy with the declining take rates? I would think they are taking a wonder why they continue with SPD.
* Q4 and 2014 is going to be real stinkers, on Revenue and Losses--worst in 3 years!
* The success of the S Class is not the gold standard...selling MSC is what matters. You guess at the take rate--and so does Joe
* Most of the options granted to management in the last two years were sold off within thirty days--not a big statement of confidence.
2) Lester doesn't know, he "HOPES" some things happen:
* That the S Class will have 100K units (financial troubles in Europe & China, a major market cast doubt)
* That the S Class will have more than a 10-15% take rate (why would it be higher than the SL?)
* That the E Class will have MSC as an option
* That BMW will begin using SPD....because Joe "implied" or "hinted" But he can't "Say"
* That 2015 won't have to be covered up with more excuses and promises about "Next year..."
* For a patent case paying off big after legal contingency costs, a case that could drag on for years
* All the Mercedes models will have MSC. Well not if the take rate keeps declining
Hope is nice. Hope is good. Hope is fun. And with no promises, and the ignoring of other things you don't like or don't fit with what you want, is just delusional.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Ok, the sedan will hit showrooms in May/June, but you already knew this since you are with the Mercedes program.....right? So when do you think production on that first sedan will begin or has it already? It doesn't take four to five months to produce one sedan does it?
Ask Mercedes. It has the timetable. It is very well pleased with the take rates on the SL and SLK and has announced MSC is going in the S Class. It expects the take rates for the S Class to be significantly higher than the SL and SLK. Stop griping and get with Mercedes' program.
Don't tell me..........show me. All that "sounds" good for shareholders, of which I am one. Tell me when will the first of those 100,000 s class sedans (both short and long wheelbase) with the MSC option hit the showrooms?