I only got 14 negative and Threespeech, "the grump" gets 17 negatives
I guess I am more a more favored son than Three is to Lester.
On a just slightly more serious note; a couple of you folks have brought up the notion of SPD in the side
windows (specifically on the E Class). Any concern there on a regulatory basis? I have heard that in some states there are rules about the darkness of tint films.
You got 10, count them, TEN negatives.
Lester did not appreciate your sarcasm.
Have to hand it to the Bard, he called him out, but only got 5 negatives.
It looks like the other oems, specifically the German oems are waiting for Mercedes to set the table before they arrive, imho. From what Joe had echoed in the cc on Dieter's thoughts concerning the entrance of the other oems into spd offerings, Mercedes may have negotiated themselves an even better deal with Hitachi should the other oems dip their toes in the water. Maybe they are waiting for a second filmmaker to step forward, but as of yet none has surfaced and it may be due to the possibility of infringing on film process patents of Hitachi's.
If take rates are increasing and side windows show up on the e class, it would seem BMW, Audi, etc., would have no choice but to jump. That should give Mercedes the impetus to promote magic sky if s class buyers welcome the technology. The next question is when does magic sky become standard, before the other oems take the plunge or after?
S-Class sedan will bring in the money 2015. Shorts don't have much time to cover. With REFR's licensees bringing more and more income, the stock will be many times more expensive. I say buy more from the shorts. They didn't cover this month. They're all on the message board begging for shares. The shares they shorted are in good hands. No long will sell now.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Do you care to share your strategies to accumulate shares? Here are a few strategies to consider
Buy all shares now while they are cheap
Take half of your intended position now and the next half after we find out what the take rate is
The same as "B" plus opportunistically accumulate more shares in the next 2-3 years
I've looked at a few more Brose patents on switchable windows. They filed several with the German patent office in April 2012, so I've been working with translated texts. One in particular, DE102012019296, discusses a DC converter designed for use with SPD.
Although the patent has one mention of electrochromic tungsten oxide, Claims 5 and 6 specifically relate to SPD. BTW, the word that Google translates as "disc" actually means film.
Someone has asked Brose to invest significant resources into making SPD side windows a reality. My vote goes to M-B and the E-class, but their other customers include Audi, BMW and Volkswagen.
Nice catch concerning the patent, Bard. Thanks.
So that's why I was getting so many thumbs down in such a short time. It was starting to hurt my feelings. Oh, for you Sheldon types....that's sarcasm.
If someone is manipulating the number of recommendations for my posts, please stop. Thank you.
Rumor has it from some automotive blogs, as well as comments from JH during the last couple of CCs, that Mercedes may be considering SPD for the 2016 E-class, their biggest selling model. One blog mentions Magic Sky in its entire greenhouse, which includes the side windows.:
"The W213 is likely to introduce a revolutionary new method of air-conditioning by employing surface heating instead of the traditional air vents. They have already developed their Magic Sky Control wizardry, which uses electrically activated micro-crystals, which realign to block or allow light to pass through. This tech will find its place on the whole greenhouse of the 2016 E-Class, taking privacy to hitherto uncharted territories."
That's from march 21 on the myautoarenaDOTcom site.
This patent descries a window pane driver (that raises or lowers the side windows) that also operates the windows' dimming function.
thebardoff, I'll admit this is a bit above my understanding. What do you think is the significance of this patent ?
They make window regulators at the Hallstadt, Germany plant where this patent was developed. This past May, they opened a new plant in Bremen less than 4 miles from the M-B plant that makes the E-class coupe.
United States Patent Application 20140247473
Assignee: BROSE FAHRZEUGTEILE GMBH & CO. Kommanditgesellschaft, Hallstadt
September 4, 2014
DEVICE FOR ELECTRICALLY CONTACTING AN ELECTRICALLY ACTIVATABLE FUNCTIONAL LAYER OF A VEHICLE WINDOWPANE THAT IS ADJUSTABLE BY A WINDOWPANE DRIVER
 The invention is based on the object of allowing easy contacting of an electrically activatable functional layer of a vehicle windowpane that is adjustable by a windowpane driver.
 The device according to the invention serves for the electrical contacting of an electrically activatable functional layer of a (vehicle) windowpane that is adjustable by a windowpane driver... In the as-intended installed state, the first contact elements are in electrical contact directly with at least two corresponding first contact points, wherein the two first contact points are assigned either directly to the functional layer or alternatively to a windowpane holder directly securing the windowpane.
 Such a windowpane holder is preferably an adapter, which is rigidly connected to the windowpane in particular at the manufacturers. In the as-intended installed state of the windowpane in the vehicle, the windowpane driver acts on the windowpane holder for the adjustment of the windowpane...
 The functional layer of the windowpane is preferably a layer which is adjustable in its transparency, which is to say in its attenuation of the transmitted light, by an electrical control signal. Such layers (referred to hereinafter as electro transparent) are formed, for example, by electrochromic material, such as for example tungsten oxide, or are configured as a so-called suspended particle device (SPD) layer...
There you go again Lester! If a story sounds too good to be true, guess what?
It is too good to be true. If your Daimler/REFR scenario had any chance of success, investors would have bid up REFR shares into double digits. Instead, REFR is in penny stock territory.
Now, I admit that REFR had a good day today, up almost 4 1/2%, but even so, it is still a sub$5 stock, aka "penny stock".
Now you know why the shorts aren't worrying.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Daimler is the slam dunk. As Mercedes goes, so does REFR. A 94MM annual opportunity, which leaves a lot of profit to be passed on to shareholders.
Shorts can only look forward to the massacre that will happen when they try and cover. Short interest out tomorrow. Did they cover? We'll see just how stuck they are.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
you keep making it sound like REFR has a "slam dunk" with no worries about profits vs. losses.
When I take just a cursory look at REFR revenues and SG&A over the last three years here is what
1)SG&A is up 25% since the introduction on the SLK. How much more will it go up this year?
2)Revenues on a full year basis are up about $1.3 MM comparing a full year before the SLK to a full
year with the SL and SLK. So the Mercedes deal has really only added about $1.3 MM/year to the top line (and when we look at this on sequential quarters the top line revenue numbers keep declining)
3) Losses are UP about $2MM since the introduction of the SLK .
4) Losses last year were almost $6MM (on $2MM of Revenues) so you need 40,000 MSC roofs on the S Class this year (with none of the inevitable drop in volume on the SL and SLK) at $150.00 each to hit a BREAK EVEN
(assuming you don't get further increases in SG&A). Not sure about you, but I don't know if I believe there will be 40,000 MSC roofs on the S Class in 2015.
So there looks to me to be just a few "complications" in route to earning a profit.
All of this doesn't include any conversation about the iron fisted control that Joe has imposed on the
Company. Or whether Joe is looking out only for Joe or if Joe is honest and is willing to pass any earnings, if they should ever occur, on to the stockholders.
Shorts may be far less "stuck" than you think. You may not understand who is really "stuck".
What risk? No S-Class being sold with MSC option. The short position is the one at risk. At current low volume there is no way they will be able to cover. Now that they are trading between short and long accounts to try and keep the stock under 5, they are paying premium margin rates. They are bleeding money since there is no way out.
Daimler and the other licensees will be delivering the checks to REFR. They already cleared 2MM last year. S-Class will add more to that this fall and then mid 2015 they will be producing over 100K of the S-Class sedan.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Do you doubt their commitment to this?
No, I don't doubt their commitment. I don't even doubt your commitment. (seriously, I am not saying that you should be committed, I understand your commitment).
I do believe it is misplaced, though. Look at the chart of the share price. Then look at the charts of stocks of good companies. See the difference?
REFR sells the sizzle, not the steak.
My advice to any one attracted to REFR is to instead purchase index funds. After a while, you will thank me.
Remember, there is no great reward without great risk. So every time you tell me that REFR is a "sure thing", I know it is not. Goodnight for now, have a fun time tomorrow watching REFR, but try and look at the stocks of some good companies too.
Sentiment: Strong Sell