IMO, the deal with Rosneft was responsible for the recent higher prices in NADL and SDRL. A clear case of irrational exhuberance. Putin is taking the long view and he want his vassel states back and will be in the role of the playground bully until someone makes him back down. Obama probably won't, so more sanctions seem inevitable. Unfortunately, Putin's not playing by those rules. The Russian banks may be next.
k-bon...NADL is a strong company with good color 'even without' the Rosneft deal and will do a lot better with it...I don't think that NADL is in any trouble if the Rosneft deal falls apart (off shore drillers are following the price of oil down at this time)...! $tagg...!
As I see it, the NADL has staked its future on dealing with Rosneft and that future is getting cloudy. NADL made an investor presentation on the 10th that was loaded with Rosneft connections and judging by today's price performance for NADL and SDRL, the market does not seem impressed. I thought the slides were confusing and did not provide a good view into the future. To put the fate of any portion of your company in the hands of Vladimir Putin is risky at best and foolhardy at worst.
This is another example of difficult choices in investing. We all like to think we have a long-term horizon and can ignore short-term fluctuations, but if that was true, then we would not spend so much time looking at our stocks each minute. Oftentimes, by the time we recognize that the trend has turned for our favorite stock, the damage has been done and it is too late to sell. With SDRL, I think the error was thinking that it had overcome the recent issues it was facing. Clearly it had not, but the reconfirming of the divy made some think that the worst was over (one has to always be onguard for false support by management such as announcements of stock buybacks without actually buying stock or immaterial personal buys or other pr related events, like appearances on TV shows.). The stock was overbought in June when its RSI was well over 70. That was the time to sell. Maybe easier said in retrospect, but if you have a system and stick to it, you can't blame it when the stock continues to goes crazy as there is no way to predict that kind of behavior. Sometimes you sell a stock based on good reasons like valuation and then it goes on to become even more overvalued, but you can't expect all stocks to become way overvalued and allow you to exit with a larger than normal profit.
SDRL is almost oversold now and approaching support at $31. Below that, support is at $28. The question one would have to ask is if you feel the yield compensates you for the risk at this time. There's no harm in waiting until the picture clears -- either the stock finds support or fundamentals stabilize.
sarge...I know I sound like a broken record but I always talk about Bloody October and that is usually stars after Labor Day (kids going back to school or college, people spent to much on vacations and need to catch up a bit, people trying to get funds together for Xmas shopping and etc.)...SDRL is getting hit with cheaper oil prices and a seasonal market sell-off...
About SDRL, SDRL tends to follow the price of oil (it should not, but it does)...a lot of investors did not like it when I said in the past that oil and natural gas was probably a poor investment at that time..the fact is, there is just to much oil at this time and we are still short on refinery capacity...we are also short on pipelines and that is why pipelines are still a good investment...
My opinion is, that SDRL is having some 'short term growing pains' and that it will change (in less than one year)...i.e. Mexico is going to drill a lot more off-shore wells and Brazil is doing the same thing (both countries need the money very bad)...I am nor selling any SDRL, I will take the ride and maybe even buy more after it levels off...in the meantime I will keep collecting the high yields and reinvesting them where I think I see value...
More, SDRL 'always has new deals cooking', and there will be more good news for investors at some point
in the future (there always is)...! Keep the faith as it will get a lot better in a couple of months...! $tagg...!
Awesome company thanks for the recommendation it is $5 off its high and gets a 10 MSN scoreFidelity score9.9
Dividend 5% see this cut and paste--Best of breed is for me!!!
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. ARLP today reported financial and operating results, setting new records for coal sales volumes, revenues, net income and EBITDA for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 (the "2014 Quarter"). Led by record coal sales volumes, revenues increased to a record $598.6 million, an increase of 8.1% compared to the quarter ended June 30, 2013 (the "2013 Quarter"). ARLP also posted records in the 2014 Quarter for net income, which climbed 32.3% to $137.7 million, or $1.37 of net income per basic and diluted limited partner unit, and EBITDA, which increased 19.4% to $213.0 million.
Board members...I have been contacted by reps. from White Oak Resources about leasing more coal rights on another farm that I own (I have already leased out some coal rights on one farm) and I am going to sign the new lease this weekend...I also found out that they are 'now shipping some coal' out of the new White Oak coal mine (in Hamilton County, Illinois) and they going to full production very soon (there will be a 'major announcement' about this on 10/01/14)...
I may have a lot more information on some of this after I meet with them when I sign the new lease and I will try to give more updates...! If any investors here like to invest in coal ARLP (yield about 5.5%) is the way to go, as earnings will surge from October and into 2015...! $tagg...!
Now there's a news story that Russia is slowing gas deliveries to Poland to make Poland stop selling gas to Ukraine. Look at an AP story "Russian gas supplies to Poland drop by a quarter" or others.
But today most of the LNG carriers are down some, except (you're gonna love this, Keebon) GLNG, which is up 4.8% at present.
also, I would note that TGP does not have LNG carriers in its fleet that are currently on the spot market or short term charters. Their future, while good, is nevertheless locked in to a greater extent than the Golars and the others which have newbuilds to be delivered soon and are waiting for higher rates. When rates go up, they will benefit to a greater extent than TGP. altough it will also help TGP.
Ever hear of "Norwegian melancholy?" To me that is the idea that Norweigians are naturally pessimistic and apologetic... which is what may shade GLNG management comments to the public. I see no serious concerns about GLNG on a 2015 to 2017 time horizon. GLNG has already gained back to where it was just before JF unloaded millions of shares at 58.50, and although some price targets have been lowered, I still think it has a chance to hit $80 before year end. All it will take is one or two good press releases related to upcoming floating LNG project(s). They are getting close an just recently announced an agreement with the Haisla Nation in Canada about the Douglas Channel project. They are also very active in project development in West Africa. No one really knows for sure but the signs look good. The risk is there but GLNG has never disappointed me and now Tor Olav seems to be in control, which should be a good thing.
Pale, one theory could be that if Russia turns off the gas to Europe before winter in response to sanctions then Europe is going to need more LNG to fill the void. On oil, I just looked at the charts of WTI and the dollar. The WTI is approaching 1 yr lows and the dollar is approaching highs. The dollar looks overextended on the chart. It's possible that WTI goes as low as $86 which was the prior low.
GLNG, GMLP, GLOG and DLNG are all up on an otherwise not so hot day. GLNG and GMLP are up more than 2% and GLOG is up more than 4%. Does anyone have a theory? (TGP is the only one down.)
While I'm on energy, anyone care to hazard a guess as to where the bottom for oil is?
please look at ORC:Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. Its RMBS are backed primarily by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred as Agency RMBS. The companys portfolio consists of traditional pass-through Agency RMBS; and structured Agency RMBS, such as collateralized mortgage obligations, interest only securities, inverse interest only securities, and principal only securities and other types of structured Agency RMBS. Orchid Island Capital, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida.
You are pot on--however the good times are still rolling
So is am fully invested
RKUS pays nothing so I pass on it
Got a little of YHOO and added some BX
I do not like ATT or CNSL, or Frontier or Windstream. Landlines are dead and they are becoming a commodity
The only company in that space I like is RKUS.
I am waiting for TICC, TCAP and TCPC to take a hit and I am buying all 3.
BDC City and you and I are the mayor Sarge
I just got a little. My cost was above 38. That is the only thing I am buying now. I am still concerned that a correction is looming and I am ready with cash.
Patience is the key.
Are you for real=====Please Wait to see if the down grade has traction and we drop more!
I say watch it here . We have been in the dog house for months now and the debt is hurting SDRL..
I doubled down twice and I could not take the pain any longer--SDRL broke all my rules --sell if it drops below 10% buy price--that is my best rule and I broke it--I guess I fell in love with the stock I took a 6 bagger loss.
So I sold today I can only hope that for you guys it pops back up for you -- I sure hope so for your sake that it does..
We have some good friends here and I love the advice we share with each other so I can only hope that I have not offend any one----that said I followed Gambler man and got some YHOO and more BX today..
I may sell my week telephone AT&T and get some CNSL--any thoughts??
Best to you