whole ethernet growth is wrong? They used up at least 50% of the cash on that, if that goes down, will be tough to go in another direction, not just money to invest, but also time frame wise. Guess will have to wait for Q2 ethernet market share summary to find out. They were solid #1 behind Intel with 21+% share for Q1.
brcd #s is not indicating FC sales in trouble, so either elx took massive shares or really inventory at one customer?
CEO leaving is troubling.
So then must believe a company like Brocade with the lion's share of their 2.25B yearly sales coming from FC SAN will be essentially out of business in 3-4 years?
No way it even belongs in the 8's.
The stock belongs in the 7's until/if they can demonstrate that sales that all the sudden evaporated have picked back up.
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Thanks for the response.
Yeah, 3-4 years sounds like a good guess. But I wonder if Ethernet will have gotten much more powerful and functional and cheaper than IB then and will work effectively with XPoint? Or FC will show that it can also work well with XPoint?
There's a reason that IB is not big in the current scale-out storage market and that's bc most people don't want another Layer 2 typology in the environment and the costs associated with it. IB has been faster than FC for some time but it's still not really in the broader markets.
XP will be a new class of memory between flash and dram.
1000 faster than flash, non-volatile, draws less power than even flash because of operates in single bits and not blocks.
AFA now is for speed and low power/ala dram can't do it because of the higher power requirements of dram. AXPA will get it beat by a mile in speed and thus for enterprise app., it should take over from AFA, the reason for the FC rebirth.
I suspect IB so far has been limited by price to just the HPCs. If you look into mlnx's symposium last week, they are trying to introduce IB into AFA. By the time they get into AXPA with higher speed, my guess is AXPAs will be using IBs instead of FCs.
But enterprise hardware changes slow, XP has still not been proven to be manufacturable in a full fab basic. Running a few engineering lots is quite a different animal from running 20k wafer starts a week. My guess it will be 3 to 4 yrs out before that change-over occurs.
If you dig out more, or have other views, do share. My only goal is to make money. Too old and too poor to have egos.
ok, just found it entertaining that you seemed to change so quickly on qlgc here. as a long termer in brcd and just recently getting back into qlgc with a small position at the end of July, i have enjoyed some of your older posts.
i am only beginning to look at mlnx. i will also look more into XPoint memory, so thanks for bringing it up. IB has also been around forever but never took off except for very high end stuff. Not sure what will happen in 3-4 years out, but the current growing Flash wave has certainly extended the life of FC.
the world changes, especially the tech world. I said that before the intc/mu XPoint memory announcement. That announcement changed a lot of things. Evidently the first market the XP memory will attack will be the high priced enterprise/data center, ala AXPA arrays in place of AFA.
you can stick to whatever you care to believe in, I couldn't care less. I am here sharing my thinking in hope of others doing the same. Hopefully we can beat the market together. You want to do your 'lol', go right ahead, won't bother me none..
You just wrote a few days ago that --
"I do my homework by studying qlgc's upcoming symposium presentations for clues on exactly what happened to their ethernet biz, and that's the chance to make 60% in 9 months without much risk if and only if the problem is only the inventory build that they hinted at."
You clearly seemed long QLGC. Now today you rip on QLGC's buyback and their lack of IB and suggest its time to sell the company?
Rule #2 Never pay more than a 10 current multiple for these disappointers.
Rule #3 The forward multiples are meaningless since they are very likely coming down much,much further.
So the remaining logical question is what is the stock price still doing in the 9's?When it should be in the low to mid 7's instead.
Now down to 81 cents for their fy16.They will likely soon be at my 70-75 cent estimate call for fy16.
not sure that I have mentioned here or not, but when intc/mu introduced their new XPoint memory a couple weeks back, I said the current bright spot of 16G FC for AFA/AllFlashArray give way to InfiniBand and AllXPArray later in 3 to 4 years.
Mellanix/MLNX is showing off IB over AFA now, yahoo mlnx thread has the article. Not sure if IB is overkill for AFA or not, but by the time we get to AXPA in a few years, IB should take over since XP is 1000 times faster than flash.
Too bad qlgc cannot hang onto the IB tech they had and had to sell it off to intc. But IMHO, FC, and thus qlgc, will be in serious trouble 4 years or so from now, unless their ethernet can start taking over serious market share from some very strong competitors like intc, mlnx etc..
QLGC's stock buyback has been all for nothing - 'returned $2B to investor' so now market cap is only $800M. All the buybacks are heavily underwater. They need to stop the buyback and return the cash as cash instead.
Time to sell off the company? Too bad they don't have IB anymore, that can be a very valuable asset.
Valuation has no business even being in the 8's never mind the 9's.
$7-7.50 seems to be the appropriate valuation until a turnaround in their sales occurs.