LOL!!! AT A RECORD 3:00 AM EASTERN TIME our resident sicko newemailloser posts continuous nonsense!!!!!!!
Bid / Ask 6.156 : 6.163
Volume 5,000 : 4,870
Spread abs/rel. 0.007 / 0.11%
Change from Prev. Day -0.552 / -8.22%
Time 30/04/2015 09:36:28
Beststock, sorry but i think the Dolphin listened 2 me instead of you, because they understand large gains in the stock market come from predicting the future performance of a given company and not treating it as a cr*p shoot or complete gamble as you think. I think the Dolphin knew u were unable to make a decision and she seen u play on both sides of the fence as usual. On one hand, u say do your DD and it can be a great investment, on the other hand you say nobody really knows anything(results) and its a complete gamble. How can anyone including you, do their DD if nobody knows anything. Don't u think we should know something and be able to forecast the future, if we're going to lay big money on it. I do. Just once, i'd like to see u pic a side, make a decision and go forward with it. Otherwise you sound just like Dudd in your posts with shoulda woulda coulda, u throw in some mights, a few potentials, and a couple of perhaps and ur a classic copy.
I think the Dolphin seen thru the blather. JMHO
should indeed maximize the publicity and highlight the undervaluation compared to ADRO and JUNO. best way to get the stock up fast if it works. JUst like an IPO.
Nokia pulls in a profit, even before the Sammy arbitration process is complete. Hah.
Shorts, give it up. We'll take your heads ;o)
Well thats not too bad actually. If it was a scam, they would pump the stock, THEN issue some new shares, and these money would somehow be used in their RD department
A Perspective On The Disconnect Between Company And Stock Performance
MannKind Corporation, the company, has performed well the last two years, achieving every single objective set by management. Its common stock (NASDAQ: MNKD), on the other hand, couldn't have done more poorly, both on a relative and absolute basis. The stock market is supposed to be efficient, so what explains the apparent disconnect that has left long-suffering shareholders in the small biotech frustrated and anxious? In this article, we attempt to address this question. Short selling is an inescapable theme in the MannKind story and it's reviewed in some detail below. The important economic concept of "supply and demand" is discussed, too, since it's certainly relevant here, answering, for example, the often heard questions: There is no news, why is the stock price down? Or, my lending shares to short sellers won't have an impact on the stock price, will it? And since all stock-related reports come down to helping make buy, sell, hold, or short decisions, we assess this in the context of both the short sellers and the aforementioned economic concept.
The Astounding Facts Concerning the Short Interest
As of March 22, 2015, MannKind Corporation had 409,102,478 shares outstanding. Of this total, corporate insiders, most notably, Alfred Mann, the company's founder and chairman, owned 162,647,026 shares (or 39.8%). The chief executive, Hakan Edstrom owned 3.8 million shares, while the chief financial officer, Matthew Pfeffer, owned 1.6 million shares. At roughly the same time, March 31st to be exact, 95,717,587 shares had been sold short. This means that almost two out of every five (38.8%) publicly owned shares had been borrowed and shorted. Incredibly, tiny MannKind has the fifth largest short interest of the roughly 3,100 companies that are listed on NASDAQ. Moreover, there are only six issues in the New York Stock Exchange that has a larger short interest. In all, out of some 5,900 stocks that trade on the two exchanges, only 10 have a larger short interest than the Valencia, California-based biotech. Interestingly, other stocks that rank high on this list include blue chips AT&T, Pfizer, Intel, Microsoft, Comcast, Apple, and Gilead Sciences.
Since the beginning of 2015, the number of shares shorted has increased by 20.0 million shares. The price of MNKD shares, meantime, is down some 42 cents year to date; they closed 2014 at $5.22. Some 54.0 million shares were added to the total in the past two years, a period during which the company reported positive results on the clinical trials for Afrezza, got an overwhelmingly favorable review for its flagship inhaled insulin product by an advisory committee for the Food & Drug Administration, secured marketing approval from regulators, signed a world-class marketing partner, and launched the product. As of the latest count, the number of trading sessions required for short sellers to cover their position is 28 days, based on recent trading volume. By contrast, the average for the 10 companies that have higher short interest is 6.4 days. Of the approximately 5,900 companies, only 38 have larger days-to-cover ratios. And all are relatively illiquid, with trading volume for the vast majority in the neighborhood of 250,000 shares a day. The ratio for MNKD is at record levels. Twelve months ago, prior to AdCom, FDA approval, Sanofi, and market launch, the short interest was 64.0 million shares and days to cover was 6.5 days. (Note: Short interest data was updated by the exchanges on April 24th, but we're using the March 31st information because the latest update available to us wasn't comprehensive. The most recent short interest in MNKD is 96.9 million shares.)
Also worthy of note is the fact that short sellers are paying double-digit interest rates to borrow the shares they sell. The rate seems to change frequently, with our broker offering to pay us 15% three months ago, 10% about a month ago, and 12% last week. Fidelity is apparently paying more than double that rate, according to some reports. Despite the steep cost, the shares being made available to the short sellers are being grabbed up almost immediately, as evidenced by both our personal experience and the continually increasing short interest.
Supply and Demand
The relationship between supply and demand is perhaps one of the most fundamental and enduring concepts of economics. Indeed, it is the backbone of a market economy and, by extension, the stock market. Demand refers to how much of a product, service, or stock is desired by buyers. Supply represents how much the market (or company) can offer. In an efficient and competitive market, the unit price of a particular good will vary until it settles at a point where the quantity demanded will equal the quantity supplied, resulting in an economic equilibrium for price.
The four basic laws of supply and demand are:
1. If demand increases and supply remains unchanged, a shortage occurs, leading to a higher equilibrium price.
2. If demand decreases and supply remains unchanged, a surplus occurs, leading to a lower equilibrium price.
3. If demand remains unchanged and supply increases, a surplus occurs, leading to a lower equilibrium price.
4. If demand remains unchanged and supply decreases, a shortage occurs, leading to a higher equilibrium price.
For most companies, the supply of common shares doesn't change very much, with the number of shares outstanding varying nominally on a quarter to quarter basis. As such, the primary variable that determines the equilibrium price is changes in demand, which will fluctuate based on the latest developments affecting the company. The announcement of a large order, for instance, will invariably boost demand for its stock, pushing up the price. So, too, would the announcement of better-than-expected earnings. On the flip side, worse-than-anticipated quarterly results, setbacks in the research lab, or a negative decision by the Food & Drug Administration would most likely suppress demand for the shares, causing their price to drop.
As it pertains to MannKind, management has been extraordinarily, if not annoyingly, reticent in communicating with the investment world. In fact, it hasn't issued a single press release or made a peep in almost exactly two months. The company didn't even bother to announce that the FDA had recently approved the 12-unit cartridge - not necessarily huge news but information that information-starved shareholders had been waiting for and would undoubtedly have appreciated. Sadly, the silence over the past two months is the continuation of an extended pattern, one that had management not even bothering to hold a conference call to trumpet the FDA approval of its flagship (and only) product. Making things worse, the short sellers and other detractors have taken advantage of the situation, filling the silence with negative stories that were spread widely by the media. Just to detail a couple: Short seller Jason Karp's letter to clients trashing MNKD stock somehow found its way onto the airwaves of CNBC, with devastating impact. So, too, did Goldman Sachs' inexplicable sell recommendation, also with a nasty impact on the stock price. (Although we wrote an entire article assessing the recommendation, the investment bank's decisions to first initiate coverage with a "neutral" rating and then to issue a "sell" recommendation still strikes us as bizarre, to use a nice word. What exactly was the point of telling their clients not to buy MNKD, when there are literally thousands of other stocks they are not recommending? Then the next obvious question is, if you've told them not to buy, then why are you now telling them to sell? Tough to sell something you didn't buy.)
Returning to the concept of supply and demand, even as management has issued nothing of late in the way of good news, the short sellers have been exerting considerable downward pressure on the stock price. The pressure derives from three fronts. One, the aforementioned negative stories both suppress demand and drive existing shareholder to sell. Two, the short sellers add to the selling pressure by selling shares they've borrowed. Three, the short sellers actually increase the supply of shares; as noted above, they've created almost 97 million shares (the number could be as high as 106 million, counting the nine million shares borrowed by Bank of America). That said, it should also be noted that the company itself has issued a large number of shares over the past several years.
Buy, Sell, Hold, or Short
We acquired a position in MannKind almost three years because of our optimism over Afrezza's commercial potential. We thought it could become one of the best-selling drugs of all time. Since then, the company has advanced steadily towards achieving that potential. Needless to say, though, it's been a rollercoaster ride from the get-go, with the short sellers and their supporters diminishing and questioning the importance of each achievement, while also always highlighting other possible challenges. We've chronicled in previous articles many of the accomplishments and the rapid responses from the shorts and won't do so again here, other than to remind readers of the "missing data" missive that quickly followed the announcement of positive Phase 3 results and the "cancer risk" headlines that tarnished the favorable AdCom and FDA reviews. All that said, it's important to note that the naysayers have been wrong about almost every single thing in the past several years. The sole exception is the stock price, which has essentially gone nowhere, at least thus far, due, in large part - according to the economic concept of supply and demand - to their activities, i.e., shorting millions of shares, spreading fear and disinformation, and adding to the supply of shares.
Looking forward, however, and perhaps further into the future than we had initially anticipated, the only question that now remains is whether Afrezza will, in fact, sell as well as most of the investors who are long the stock believe. Indeed, as detailed in the Robert Sacher interview with Nate Pile last week, which is definitely worth a read, the short sellers last hope of making any money rests on the magnitude of Afrezza's success. For our part, for whatever it's worth, we think the securing of Sanofi as the marketing partner enhanced Afrezza's prospects for becoming one of the best-selling drugs of all time, and the glowing early reviews from the product's initial adopters give us even more confidence that our optimism will ultimately prove justified; some have sought to undermine the value of the early reviews by questioning their motivations and credentials, but it's difficult to argue with the objectivity and science behind the picture painted by the reviewers' continuous glucose monitors (CGM). So, we remain very bullish on MNKD stock and fully agree with Mr. Pile's assessment that "the stock could easily trade north of $25."
Going a little further, we think the notion of shorting MNKD is as bizarre as the Goldman Sachs recommendations. Why in the world would anyone short a $5 stock in a company that has just launched a product that targets a gigantic patient population, let alone make it the most heavily shorted biotech stock in America and the 11th most shorted stock out of some 5,900? What's the upside potential in a $5 stock when you're paying double-digit interest rates for the privilege of shorting that equity and then have to pay a 20% capital gains tax? On the flip side, what's the downside risk if sales start rising, the company makes a major announcement concerning Technosphere, and/or big pharma makes a takeover overture, taking into consideration the huge short interest and the long days-to-cover ratio? All in all, it's tough to understand a short position in MNKD, surely there are better stocks to short, ones that offer better upside potential and less frightening downside risk.
The Final Words
Short sellers have their place in the workings of an efficient stock market and generally deserve some respect for their due diligence, as the practice of shorting is far riskier than going long. Indeed, the knowledge that a particular stock has a large short interest is enough to instill fear and to deter some investors from taking a position. In the case of MannKind, however, the short sellers have generated a miserable track record, being wrong time and time again. That's not all, their judgement is certainly questionable when one considers their large bet on what's clearly a very bad risk/reward proposition. As to the ever present fear among retail investors that the smart and wealthy short sellers must know something we don't, we would point out that there are some 190 institutional investors in MNKD who apparently aren't as fearful of the unknown.
There have been conflicting messages about how Syriza perceives the Greek banking system. However, the scenario of full nationalization doesn’t reflect the official position of the government.
Initially it was reported the gov wanted to create two state banks by merging National with Piraeus and Alpha with Eurobank. The ECB and the SSM (Single Supervisory Mechanism which grants or withdraws banking licences) the EU and the DGCom rejected those plans. They stated mergers between systemic banks will lead to violent nationalization of banks with “bad private shareholders.“
Recently gov sources told bankingnews solutions sought are designed to ensure the roles of individuals and the FSF.
If the banks became insolvent, of course they’d be nationalized. So far, the ECB is maintaining liquidity via ELA. After an agreement is reached with the Eurogroup, the reform for creating a bad bank can be initiated. It’s reported if 30 billion of the 100 billion. problem loans.are transferred to a bad bank. the banks could enhance their capital from 7 to 9 billion and significantly improve the Capital adequacy ratios. How then will the banks cover the funding gap from selling the problem loans for less than face value? Will there be another capital share increase?
Can't argue about the amount the forward sale will cost. The math is simple. But, it still isn't a loan. It is a sale. If you buy something, you aren't loaning the seller money, you are making a purchase.
It's the empirical facts that lead me to predict what I predict. That's not pumping. There's no guarantee that I'll be right but the probabilities are in my favor. I sank 3K of my money into it years ago and I did lose that but that's hardly a lot of money. I've got 12.8K shares now at a 96 cents cost basis. That's not a lot of money either.
So what is your agenda? I figure you have to have one to make stuff up like you do.
Expect many more so called gurus to sing the praises as now a good week has passed. Apparently people think all these A rated business people at the top are there just to sell their stock in the first inning of a successful turnaround.
Makes a lot of sense. Just like the notion that the 37bb dollar man is just looking to double or triple his position. That's arsenine and the product of cognitive failure.
Its offensive to a rational being.
This is chump change for these 3 so the only way it is worth their effort is to have them become serious global brands and have the potential for 1000% plus gains.
Celsius wasn't looking for financing, it came to them.
Carl has all the money to fund his baby, but these 3 offered a new paradigm of global distribution branding and marketing prowess.
Russell Simmons is a highly regarded entrepreneur. The three of them are a force majeur. The brand, via the accelerating rev growth in all 4 channels, were doing incredibly well without their money.
There was no pressure on the company to execute a deal. None whatsoever.
And when 1st Q is released any day now I believe its confirmation that more conservative investors and current investors are looking for.
I would be surprised to NOT see the report in the next week.
Remember you can short through TD ameritrade possibly and def. Interactive brokers,
So if you think the stock move is a joke then have at it.
I welcome it.
"Brent and WTI prices closed at the highest level in nearly five months as US crude oil inventories rose by just 1.9 million barrels (compared to more than 5.5 million barrels the previous week)," ANZ bank said on Thursday.
"WTI prices outperformed Brent as crude oil stocks at key US storage hub Cushing fell for the first time in five months," it added.
Sentiment: Strong Sell