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Arlington Asset Investment Corp. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    big short today?

    by seth1611 Mar 19, 2015 3:57 PM

    educate me: is there an accessible website that shows that level of information? would love to know. thanks.

  • Reply to

    Train is under way to leave station

    by johnnybegood756 Mar 20, 2015 10:34 AM

    "probably after the 2/1"

    Looks like ray thinks we go to $30 and then do a
    2 for 1.
    Smartest thing Puke has said in 15 months.

  • LMAO, 9/11 scooter happened due to dubya being on vacation 40% of the time running up to the WTC attack. NOTE DUBYA and his team of neocon clowns are republican's

  • I spoke with someone who understands that auction process currently being undertaken by Baird and Rothschild. The key takeaways were "many interested parties" and expecting a "robust process."

    Have you shorts done any diligence on the Chairman and 21% shareholder?

    I will sell you my shares at $14+.

    And soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    get ready

    by btokuno Mar 20, 2015 11:19 AM

    You just need to avoid the hot air by Mumbles and his minions on here-way too much going around and its gettin' kinda stinky in this board room-right Grumblin' Mumbler. Buy while shares are cheap and sales will follow shortly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If Al wanted to take back Mannkind he had a great opportunity to do it back in 2011, when Afrezza received its 2nd CRL and the cost to buy back Mannkind would have been a lot cheaper. Now that Afrezza and Technology Platform have broken past a key regulatory hurdle approval by the FDA, the technology platform is ready to move onto expanded opportunities that will benefit more by having it advanced by a publicly traded company that offers greater visibility & liquidity compared to a tightly held private company. Mannkind's Technology is now a legitimate paradigm changing platform that will revolutionize the entire healthcare industry and the opportunities in front of it is just too big to be in the control of a private company. I just don't see Alfred Mann taking Mannkind Private. Also, Mannkind's Management have a boat load of stock options they own and they will likely also receive a more shares in the future and the value of those shares will likely benefit more by keeping Mannkind a publicly traded company or by selling the company to a huge pharma a huge premium. I expect Mannkind has been working on maximize the value it has build up through Afrezza's FDA Approval to either sign new major partnership deal (s) for their Technology Platform with a big pharma or multiple pharma's or other bio-pharmaceutical or they may expand the company through M&A deals or they will just sell the company. Taking Mannkind Private is likely not one of the options being considered. At least I hope its not.

  • STEM has the worst posters. Stock went down due to earnings release, and cash burn. All we need is an update on one of the trials, especially macular degeneration, or a partner/investor and stock jumps over $2-3, it can happen.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    When are we going to get an update?

    by divineflatus Mar 20, 2015 2:22 PM

    Then there are the facts....Nuo Therapeutics (OTCQX:NUOT): The past year has no doubt been frustrating for Nuo shareholders. The change to CMS Medicare / Medicaid coverage for Aurix (formerly AutoloGel) took place in 2013 and 2014 was supposed to be the year of the "hockey stick" ramp in sales. As it turned out, 2014 was more a positing year for Nuo. The company spent most of the year rebranding both its corporate name and the Aurix product, building its sales force, and ironing out the kinks of launching an established product with new reimbursement codes. We told people to buy Nuo Therapeutics in May 2014. That call was too early, and we're underwater to the tune of roughly 25%. But we're still bullish on Nuo for 2015. Here's why:

    - Angel, a previous $10 million per year run-rate for Nuo, is now in the hands of Arthrex, Inc., one of the world's largest providers of minimally invasive orthopedic medical products. Nuo previously promoted Angel with only a handful of part-time sales representatives. The Arthrex sales force is 1,500 strong, and the product will be coupled with existing Arthrex products to help drive awareness and uptake. Arthrex also took a healthy increase in average selling price. We estimated that previous net profit margin on Angel at Nuo was around 20%. Nuo is now receiving a "low-teens" royalty on sales at Arthrex, which we believe will ultimately prove to be 6-8x what Nuo was doing by itself. In short, we expect royalties on Angel will outpace what Nuo was reporting in net margin by the end of 2015. We think Angel is a $75 million product in the U.S.

    - Aurix is a product we always believed had fantastic efficacy and safety data. What Aurix lacked was broad-scale reimbursement and favorably economics. Prior to CMS granting CED, we believe Nuo was selling Aurix essentially at cost. The effort was primarily on long-term acute care facilities and on finding private insurance or pre-negotiated avenues for coverage. With CED, Aurix will be reimbursed at $430 per treatment in 2015 to the millions of Medicare beneficiaries that have diabetic foot ulcers, venous leg ulcers, and pressure ulcers. We believe this equates to a healthy 70% gross margin. Similar to Angel, Nuo is ramping up its sales staff and partnering with data collection companies like Net Health and Intellicure. Sales to Medicare beneficiaries prior to CED were virtual nil for Nuo. Today we think the playing field has been leveled, and Aurix is a product that can complete effectively with and even replace expensive skin-substitute products like Dermagraft, Apligraf, EpiFix, and Grafix. Ultimately, we think Aurix peak sales are $100 million in the U.S.

    Over the past several months, Nuo has been building the necessary infrastructure and staff to prepare for the re-launch of Aurix. As far as the required clinical programs under CED, all things look to be on track. In the next 2-3 quarters, we expect the company to have over 1,000 patients enrolled in all four programs combined. We remind investors that the four CED programs include one randomized clinical trial (RCT) seeking to enroll 280 patients with varied wounds, and then three separate registry programs each seeking to enroll up to 750 patients with diabetic foot ulcers, venous legs ulcers, and pressure ulcers, respectively. These programs should enroll and report data in 2015. Similar to any clinical program, implementing the protocol includes obtaining IRB approval at each site. The company is targeting 120 sites right now. We continue to believe by the end of 2015, Nuo will have one of the largest data sets in the entire wound care market.

    To value Nuo Therapeutics, we are doing a simple "sum-of-parts" valuation for the two drivers of the top-line: Aurix sales and Angel royalties. We believe Aurix is a $100 million product for Nuo. We believe Angel is a $75 million product for Arthrex, Inc., of which Nuo gets low-teens royalty. We apply no value for ongoing clinical programs with ALD-301 in peripheral arterial disease or ALD-351 in glioblastoma. Based on our sales forecasts, our NPV analysis pegs the valuation of Aurix at $1.05 per share. We think Angel is worth $0.35 per share. Summing these parts two parts together we believe Nuo Therapeutics shares are fairly-valued right now at $1.40 per share. We think 2015 will be the year Nuo Therapeutics shines

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I expect a correction next week. Even the worst stocks go up every now and then.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Word is Ahn is going to be CEO of a very profitable biotech. His first move is hostile takeover of GALE

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Flyonthewall sez...

    by philphillyguy Jan 10, 2015 11:41 AM

    cant deny the fly

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Strong dollar is killing Cliff's profits.

    by skittle12345 Mar 21, 2015 12:14 PM

    What percentage of CLF's total revenues are payable in something other than dollars? If less than 10%, how is the foreign exchange "killing Cliff"? Other than analysts who continue to link China weakness and dollar strength to justify low price targets on the stock.

    And I don't understand why MT, X and other steel manufacturers would want to now move more toward supplying their own iron ire versus buying from CLF. It's just hard to imagine steel company executives sitting around saying "Our overall business is declining, and so is the cost of our raw materials. Let's start, re-start, or invest in iron-ore mining operations." Perhaps when iron ore was over $100/ton you could make the case, but the carrying cost of just keeping a mine open would seem to argue for buying only what you need when you need it from someone else like CLF. Sort of like outsourcing... I'm not in the iron ore business, so maybe someone else could speak more specifically to how the big steels source their iron ore.

  • Reply to

    How high can this go?

    by s34n_05 Mar 19, 2015 9:59 AM

    I have it worse than you. I had a large holding at $16 during ZAGG's highest point. I kept buying down over the years. Eventually my break even point got to $8.5. At this point I'm up $20k (after being in the red for 3+ years it's a relief). I'm still holding for the possibility of going 11+.

  • Reply to

    The week that was

    by tedallinnby76 Mar 20, 2015 8:46 PM

    Forget u bid, I have been quite all week just watching the Titanic sink. Oh well hope we can all swim in the fridged waters that MGMT put us in.

  • Reply to

    What is realistic sp in say, 60 days?

    by mofisher22 Mar 16, 2015 10:54 AM

    You make it sound like 20M is a lot of money in this segment. ZMH is floating $7.65B in notes to buy out Biotin for $13.4B. You think $20M is a lot?

  • Started watching HLF with the recent price movements, trying to decide whether to go long or not?

    I see the long argument, stock may go up due to suppression of a prolonged short attack.
    Was somewhat surprised that there is basically a neutral sentiment of HLF on several sites.

    I guess my biggest concern is the financial trend, decreasing sales, EPS, etc.
    What has been causing the disappointing results the last couple of years?

  • I guess you are the idiot, because it is signed and dated March 13, 2015. And they state the number of shares at March 11, 2015 and they mention the $8 million Sony payment. Thus, this is not a document that is frozen in time as of Dec. 31 2014.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Our team has no power, no speed and a feckless play caller at the helm. What a winning combination.

  • Reply to

    Davyjonesbartlett also WORKS FOR ACKMAN!!

    by j0n0rca Mar 16, 2015 1:39 PM

    REALITY works for Ackman. Or at least, it does not work for you.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

AI
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