I only care about a steady reliable PPS movement with the Dividend acting like Fly Paper drawing in people who like to buy a Dividend on the run up. Love those guys !! Looking forward to AGNC to settle down so to trade again , at the present time PPS is not predictable. The weather is great in Alaska near Anchorage , wet and very chilly.
Yes I did also and made over 100 Billon and bought a couple of nice bridges that I have turned into Toll and made millons more, I also bought a railroad which is now over a trillon dollars so sign up to waltersalerts they will make you very rich, Nice post Carl.
He slipped up in not anticipating the run up in interest rates over the past summer, but measures taken since then are the best that can be done.
Seriously, it's pretty difficult to run a business when the government is constantly changing the rules , like all the govt prgms to help people 'refi' out of higher rate loans (i.e. those people who probably had no business buying homes in the first place, although the Fed's low rates under Greenspan helped that bubble form)... And then you have the FED buying up most of the MBS paper, artificially lowering rates - but then the future fear of the FED stopping their purchases, which could hurt mreits...Govt always thinks they can 'tinker' and fine tune things...and just wind up mucking it up...i.e. better to keep govt out of the housing sector in the first place - they've lost a lot of taxpayer money mucking around in Fannie/Freddie...$180 billion and counting?...not to mention the FHFA issues...asking for more money to shore up their balance sheets. (whatever the govt gets involved in...you can bet there will be problems and lots of taxpayer money lost)...ps...you don't have to invest here, tho...i.e. "you don't have to keep your policy if you don't want to...period"
Glad to hear that you enjoyed Alaska. I had a nephew who lived up there in Juneau. Well, I kind of surprised myself, getting back into AGNC. As matters have unfolded, I now view it as a low risk situation near term with upside potential. Although, it certainly is not the "cash cow" opportunity of the past with the SPO's and dividend run-ups. I'm not gong to bother with WMC again. Even though it turned out to be quite lucrative last March/April, I still remember the daily volume-related problems and sometimes strange price movement. As far as MTGE goes, I guess one "Kain product" is enough for me..........ha, ha. Therefore I'll pass on MTGE. Although, it's upside potential may exceed that of AGNC. My latest screw-up was getting out of BA way too soon. It's up about 10 bucks per share since I sold it. CIEN has been a good one lately. Although, it's very volatile. The politicians in Washington continue to irritate me, especially the one in the White House.
"Social security runs a deficit just as every other federal program does. It is not a pension program and was never intended to be. Apply the payroll tax to all income and things will be fine."
Actually, SS has not historically run a deficit and is not projected to run a deficit for some time. Some modest tweaking will even keep it from running such projected deficits in the future.
SS if it were a private firm would have been profitiable all these years, just like Fannie Mae was profitable Federal entity until it was privatized and spun off in the Johnson administration.
Because SS and FMae are so lucrative, profit seeking interests have sought to abolish these programs.
The interests that were aligned against FM mostly vaporized themselves in the crash of 08 and no longer exists. But one final act of that long running war against FM was the Bush Administrations Used a flimsy pretext in an wreckless attempt to once and for all destroy FMae and FMac by direct government seizure in sept 08. This seizure resulted in the cascading bankruptcies of Lehman, etc in the fall of 08.
In a super Irony, the seizure of FMae and Fmac may have gaurenteed their long term existence as government own enterprises that are now pumping billions i to the Federal Government that Republicans want to starve and dismantle. So long as a Democratic administration in in place, nothing need be done to simply allow these venerable old ogranizations to continue making the unique US mortgage market viable while now pumping billions into the Federal Treasury. Good Job Henry Paulson. You sure you're not a covert Dem?
In the same way Wall Street tried to shut down FMac and FMae in order to take over such a lucrative line of business, they have been waging a dissimilar but also unsuccessful campaign to shut down SS so they can charge you to manage your retirement for you. Great idea. Ready to sign up?
If Clinton had been running for President today he would be running as a Republican. The only reason politicians in southern states were overwhelmingly Democrat was due to a hatred for the Republicans who were in charge during the civil war and the period after the war when the south was sacked by the north. But now that has all changed. They no longer identify with the Democratic Party as strongly as they once did. Arkansas is considered to be a red state now and I doubt that Clinton chances of becoming it's governor today would be as good running as a Democrat. It would have been wiser for him to run as a Republican. And once he chose that path he would have stayed the course in all likelihood as switching parties mid career is pretty rare.
The good news for Democrats is that they could have criticized Clinton for his fooling around with interns rather than having to stand by him and make up excuses for his behavior. They could have raked him over the coals and I am sure they would have. But alas, they never had that opportunity and thus it was an opportunity lost for them. The Democrats will have chances in the future to trash other Republicans that stray from the moral path I am sure so not all is lost. They will get their fill I am sure. Like zombies looking for brains to eat. They will walk around saying. "Need dirt, want mud", with one hand sticking out and a dazed look staring off into the distance. And if we feel nice one day we can make up a scandal so they will have tattered corpse huddle around and chew on. So keep up the hope. A nice juicy scandal is sure to come. But poolease, don't drool in the mean time. It is so unsightly. You'll get a real scandal soon enough I'm sure and then you can feast.
I want to see AGNC go up a dollar without people running away. Hold the stock long term term and you will be a big winner instead of a little winner.
Oh, I suppose everyone posting replies contains some 'truths'. And investing is a lot about timing, etc...I saw a study of the 'great stock pickers, prognosticators, etc'...Cramer was correct 47% of the time...And of course, given the 4-5 year run-up in stocks we've had, pretty much everyone is now a 'genius'...If it goes to their head, it can be dangerous in the future. Anytime I ever got to feeling happy about my 'picks' (how great I was doing), I always got knocked down later - so, any time I'm having good days / weeks / months, I have to knock myself down, mentally, and remind myself that things can change. ( "ego kills" is my motto). I'd probably say many who've been in this sector were ones who wanted / needed some high yields on their money (many seniors? probably...) And I have said that many are not sophisticated enough..that's not a 'put down'...it's just that many people don't have the time to study macroeconomics, micro, valuations, competition, cycles, etc....so they do have to rely on others, like a Cramer....But over time, they can become better, perhaps...Me? I've always been primarily a value/contrarian investor , and like "hearxhere", I had my best times after the 2002 and 2008 recessions....I love times like that...(like sex...hahaha). But right now, I'm definitely lagging the markets after having put a lot into "preferreds" to PARK MONEY. In times like these, I just have no bearings...not a momentum investor...My last decent picks were WAG / RAD / SWY...over a yr ago...but I see FEW if any gems now...so, I 'park', and let the markets 'beat me' while I wait...could be a very long wait with Yellen coming...prints? Anywayyyy, my only advice in here is the same - wait until they actually begin to taper their MBS purchases...But I have no positions yet. I'm just sitting (and slowly bleeding) in some preferreds...as rates rise a bit...divys cover the losses....tread water...But this econ. landscape is not my investing 'cup of tea'.
I have been trying to explain this for years and it never sinks in. They think when the dividend shows up in their account they actually made something. I keep trying to explain that it is actually during the run up between dividends when they make money but most don't get it.
If the stock runs up by exactly the amount of the dividend every quarter then they make the amount of the dividend. Otherwise they make more or less depending on the amount of the run up. But don't expect them to understand this. Because they won't. It is hopeless.
It would be nice but where is the evidence of AGNC's extra income. It would be public knowledge. This might just be the usual run up before ex-date.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Growing up using calculators can't think things out, now they aren't going to teach writting so they'll need a cell phone to communicate. If you believe it or not the Liberal Left run the schools and most teachers lean to the left and that is who is doing this to the young people of this country.
a small know nothing like myself made $$ in 3Q by trading the non-taper and the subsequent run up in bonds... but the seasoned pros of the mreit industry continue to deliver bad results in the same quarter on the same bets! now, that takes BRAINS. this was supposed to be a quick flip on the good news. THANKS
a special one time additional div may be in the works with all the cash AGNC has. Look at this recent run-up. Someone else knows this also or there would be a mad dash for the exit. Buyers coming in today and yesterday to cash in for the next dividend payout.
Shorts don't care about holding through the dividend ex date. Since the stock price will drop by the same amount as the dividend it will be a non event for them. You seem to not understand this. Which implies that you probably don't understand that you don't make money on the ex date for the same reason. You make money on the run up between ex dates and if the stock is not running up then it does not matter if you get a dividend because you are losing money.
Today the stock dropped by more than 6 months worth of dividends however with $0.45 earning they will have to decrease the dividend further so it may be more like a year's worth of dividends. Who can justify that?
As they say in the safe harbor text, the past is no indication of the future. Which means you cannot predict the future either way because past stock price performance. Only fundamentals can be used to get some measure of what the future might be and the $0.45 earnings would be a fundamental.
Actually, you cannot get the dividend, in effect, by purchasing before the ex date because the stock price declines by the amount of the dividend on the ex date so even though you will get credited the dividend a few weeks later you lost the same amount in the price of the stock on the ex date. However if you hold the stock for exactly one quarter you will get the dividend due to the likely run up between ex dates in which case it does not matter when you buy.
In an ideal world the stock wil run up by the amount of the dividend every 3 months between ex dates and will almost cancel out the decline of the stock price on the ex date. So one could argue that you could buy after the ex date, sell before the next ex date, and thus capture the run up between dates which should be almost equal to the dividend.
You can play it either way and the result will be the same. There will be no tax difference because dividends from mREITs are treated the same as short term capital gains. All in all it is a wash. No difference.
My point being is that it does not matter when you buy. There are no tricks that one can use to make greater profits that have not already been arbitrated out by others long before you were born.
That said there was an interesting options play that some were performing here that was working about a year or so ago and worked for several years and it took advantage of the fact that due to AGNC's low volatility at the time that options were dirt cheap and if one timed it well one could make excellent profits on call options between ex dates, so long you sold them before the ex date. But the volatility is no longer low and thus the options are now expensive, relatively speaking, so I suspect that no one has made a lot of money this way for at least 6 to 9 months, give or take.