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Trina Solar Limited Message Board

  • idreamalot2 idreamalot2 Jan 29, 2012 11:50 AM Flag

    From famine to feast

    There's been a sea change in technical factors affecting solar stocks. Faster than one could blink an eye, these metrics have made a sea change in a little over two weeks.

    Although the initial euphoria from reports of low inventories provided the catylst, the market reversed downward in a flash when almighty Germany got mad and threating when discovered solar installations were just amazingly good.

    Does this deter the solar recovery that started just over two weeks ago? Absolutely not. Techncially, the die has been cast. All of these stocks have just finished establishing a four month techncial base which is the minimum required to form a long term uptrend if one is to occur. Second, amazingly, all these solars are now above their 50 day moving averages as new strength has emeraged over the last two days in high volume...for the most part.

    First, techncials aside, I don't think anyone on this board with a brain ever doubted that China would eventually surpass German installations...it was just a matter of time.

    Back to the techncials, the market is now just digesting these tempermental provoking market actions. I've said before that almost all the Chinese solars we follow would survive. Although ALL of these charts have turned positive (amazing in itself), some look better than others. I'll give you my picks.

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    • We may not see fundamentals for individual company results but we do see many long term fundamental improvements of the PV industry... of which our favorite ChiSolars will be beneficiaries of. i.e. = nearing or surpassing grid, "fallout" from the Japan disaster, expanding markets everywhere, brand new markets that could be huge sooner rather than later etc.

      Perhaps one day in the not so distant future we will see mass realization that PV works and will be huge just being a piece of the new energy world... then we will see that perfect storm that will make for higher eps and PE's than we have yet seen.

      I never expected to be this far in the "grid race" so fast. It was sure a painful 12 months but the result is the expansion of PV around the globe sooner that anyone here thought.

    • I've gone from all liquid to 40% invested in Chinese solars in the past as I saw this 4 month minimum base being developed. I've averaged up and buying almost every day since then.

      Near the bottom, there's no justification for buying any of these assumingly doomed stocks except just one reason: valuations were so stupidly low that even losing money for a year, these companies would still have a decent balance sheet and book value.

      My largest holding is CSIQ, then TSL and SOL. I liked CSIQ because it had the lowest valuation of all, and now it has shown it's ability to win large scale utility sized projects. The massive Canadian project win was stunning...and then the middle east project win.

      I think the JKS chart looks very, very powerful...as much as any, but has only begun to move yesterday. I only own a small amount, but think I will buy some more Monday. I just don't know how much more competitive they are as they held an advantage in the past. And they are heavy into Germany and Italy...my least favorite markets in the current environment. But the chart says ready to blast off.

 
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