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Trina Solar Limited Message Board

  • floppy_6 floppy_6 May 17, 2012 4:59 PM Flag

    Very easy solution

    The decree tariffs the originality of cell, not the originality of panel nor wafer.

    Solution:

    1) Disasemble 20% of the cell lines (if TSL ships 20% of revenue to US) and re-assemble in Vienam. Making the cell produced there, then truck back to HD to make modules. It may cost 100 base point on margin, which might be added back to ASP.


    2) Toll cells from Taiwan, pay 2c toll fee.

    US ASP is currently significantly higher than ROW. US ASP is 90c - $1 while Europe .80-.88 and inside China sub-70c. US has plenty of profit to accomodate this.

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    • it is applied to cells, read the release from the document I attached, but it is based on the shipping manifest and packing slip. You will not list cell, than estimated price of article, module will have a duty on it.

    • I am a bit lost on the discussion.

      Of cuz, the 30+% tariffs is applied to whole module price. If previously was $1, then net-after-tariffs will be $1.30.

    • The language of the text is as follows, I think it clearly partains to cost of the cell, which you will have to identify now. If you do not it may apply to the module as a whole
      "Commerce preliminarily determined that critical circumstances exist. As a result of this preliminary determination, Commerce will instruct U.S. Customs and Border Protection to require a cash deposit or bond based on these preliminary rates, applicable to all entries of Chinese solar cells made up to 90 days prior to the date of publication of the preliminary determination notice."

    • Q1 2012

      STP 80MW
      YGE 146MW
      TSL 93MW

      STP has 40MW might be ordered by their US subsidiary which may circumvait from this tariff.

      Cells tolled by Taiwan will cost Chinese 5c more since TW makers are less efficient.

      STP had 43% shipped to US in Q4

      Planned % revenue from US for 2012

      TSL 25%
      YGE 20%
      CSIQ 25% (may include Canada)
      SOL 9%
      JASO 20+% (Jaso will lose some OEM orders)

      • 1 Reply to floppy_6
      • So now when dust settles, the cost increase per pannel is around $41.00 with 260MW capacity unit or around 16 cents per watt, when coming coming from China. Cell has to come from anywhere but Mainland and can be assembled in Mainland. The only loss is a current capacity, matching module capacity for guys like YGE and TSL.
        I was told by Gintech that the Chinese have set up satellite companies in Taiwan and are holding them on the back burner. Motech and DelSolar lost on their Mainland Capacity, so they are limited. Let's remember one little detail, Taiwan has 5GW of cell capacity the US needs at best 2GW. Do not forget Koreans. Those who will sell to the US, will pick and choose the cell they want including the price. USA just made it clear they want modules from US-listed companies and few tier 2s. Bottom line nothing is coming to the US in a way of manufacturing, all of it isstaying in Asia. You cannot imagine Sunpower running factories in Phillipines and First Solar in Malaysia, and expect the Chinese to open cell lines in here. Modules are different. I saw ads in Ontario market for temp labor to come work in module assembly lines, minimum wage, bring steel toe boots. Module assembly would make sense in the US, anything else does not.

    • That is almost true already. FSLR has a few mini projects in China.

    • language in the first place.

      Most the cheap cells are made in Tiawan anyway.

      This is all dog and pony, so of course it has no teeth.

      Huge market over reaction. Buy soalrs tomorrow at the open

    • And you don't think the US is smart enough to anticipate
      these ploys? Has anyone seen the final language the US is
      putting in place?

    • Agreed and I think Trina has already figured out how to get around the ruling:

      From Trina Solar's March 20, 2012 Press release, http://ir.trinasolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c... :
      The DOC further preliminarily ruled that the scope of the case covered exports to the United States of Chinese made solar cells, as well as modules manufactured outside of China from solar cells produced in China. The DOC clarified that the scope does not cover the exportation of modules manufactured in China from solar cells produced in a third country. Trina Solar continues to take necessary steps in these administrative proceedings while abiding by its contractual commitments.


      In a February press release they stated that they had “made in Europe” certifications for their panels for Italy’s FIT requirements. http://ir.trinasolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c...

      I have also seen discussion about other ways to sell into the US without import duties in the case of a bad DOC decision. It is my belief that Trina intends to be able to avoid these tariffs / duties by selling into the US from non-China sourced products. JMHO

    • In the latest presentation, CSIQ said that they already located the solution.

      YGE shipped the most to US. That's why it drops the most. TSL second, STP third.

      • 1 Reply to floppy_6
      • Companies which are vertically integrated with cells will have their production idle to support their modules lines with cells from another locations. Maybe simply add more module assembly lines. CSIQ may stop their cell expansion under this case, SOL also looks quite smart under the conditions, but their name is missing so all cells have to be bought for the US market no biggy.

 
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