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Trina Solar Limited Message Board

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jan 23, 2013 9:26 AM Flag



    As some suggested prices could not drop much farther. For the last several weeks the ASP through the price chain has been relatively stable. The price of Poly has flattened around $16/KG. Companies with Contracts int he $20's will still have to honor them but can blending down to the 18's ranges, those like JKS that relied on spot could be around $16/kg for purchases by Q1 end early Q2. This puts the blending Q over Q with inventories dropping the Si costs 1 to 2 cents for the next 2 Q's when inventory should finally be blended down. That is a saving of up to 4 cent on Si for some or in general a 3 to 6% improvement in GM.

    With pricing stable at $0.60-$0.65 for a module, following processing trends of $0.47 $0.44 $0.41 $0.38 to reach YGE targets by year end, one could see all in costs around $050 come Q3 possibly sooner for those with lower inventory. With blending this could be around $0.51 making companies around $0.14 gross per watt at a $0.65 ASP.

    for TSL shiping close to 600MW per Q they would likely have all in costs around $0.133 and could be profitable at those levels of shipments. A company like YGE that hase some $30M more in interest per Q, would likely be losing money if they are shipping 700MW in Q3. JKS would likely be around break even to a slight profit at around 400MW shipments.

    Of course all these shipment levels are above current capacity so they either need to expand of increase efficiencies from said capacity.

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