As some suggested prices could not drop much farther. For the last several weeks the ASP through the price chain has been relatively stable. The price of Poly has flattened around $16/KG. Companies with Contracts int he $20's will still have to honor them but can blending down to the 18's ranges, those like JKS that relied on spot could be around $16/kg for purchases by Q1 end early Q2. This puts the blending Q over Q with inventories dropping the Si costs 1 to 2 cents for the next 2 Q's when inventory should finally be blended down. That is a saving of up to 4 cent on Si for some or in general a 3 to 6% improvement in GM.
With pricing stable at $0.60-$0.65 for a module, following processing trends of $0.47 $0.44 $0.41 $0.38 to reach YGE targets by year end, one could see all in costs around $050 come Q3 possibly sooner for those with lower inventory. With blending this could be around $0.51 making companies around $0.14 gross per watt at a $0.65 ASP.
for TSL shiping close to 600MW per Q they would likely have all in costs around $0.133 and could be profitable at those levels of shipments. A company like YGE that hase some $30M more in interest per Q, would likely be losing money if they are shipping 700MW in Q3. JKS would likely be around break even to a slight profit at around 400MW shipments.
Of course all these shipment levels are above current capacity so they either need to expand of increase efficiencies from said capacity.