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Trina Solar Limited Message Board

  • marketguru111 marketguru111 Feb 26, 2013 9:02 AM Flag

    Hobo

    What are your thoughts,things are improving,let us know.........sure look like it

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    • TSL is a slow long burn losing $60-$80M a quarter this year. Third year in a row of large losses. They have no plans to lower cost further nor plans to increase shipments dramatically. They hope for a higher ASP and a lower cost, yet YGE is now selling under $0.60/watt with costs that are now significantly lower than TSL. When a Tier 1 undersells other tier1's by 10% and is driving capacity, TSL has no choices other than hope for better times.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Yes things are improving.. I didn't expect much since q4 was a throw away quarter for all these guys. q4 was roughly in line with q3, so at least as I expected. I thought they might have some higher end of year charges but that was irrelevant unless you had an over under on their actual eps. Up q1 is a nice surprise but again even q1 is not important. I think they are lowballing q1 margins because without continued inventory write downs, it should start heading back up towards what appears to be .15/watt, or barely enough to get tsl across the black line in q2. The degree of profitability however is another question and we need a little more info beyond pure speculation. Just a waiting game now which is why I'm picking my spots to incrementally add as I've been doing in the past couple months.

      • 2 Replies to investinghobo
      • Up q1 is a nice surprise but again even q1 is not important. I think they are lowballing q1 margins because without continued inventory write downs, it should start heading back up towards what appears to be .15/watt, or barely enough to get tsl across the black line in q2.

        hobo, are you thinking that tsl could be in the black sometime in q2/q3? even optimizing tsl, it seems they may continue to post losses for each quarter of 2013. without optimization for the rest of the solar 11, it appears that two companies may post profits for q3 and possibly six companies for q4.

        anyways, i hope that you are correct about tsl.

      • green.solar@ymail.com green.solar Feb 26, 2013 7:23 PM Flag

        Hi Hobo,

        Hope you are keeping well, Just wondering are you going to write any more articles on SA.
        I miss these articles and would love to read up on your analyses of Chinese solar again.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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