For those of you who are just trying to trade this stock without fully knowing the company, let me give you a few facts about TSL (based on cc):
1. Cash increased from $703 M (3rd Q) to $980 M (4th Q)
2. Operating cash flow of $75M in 4th Q.
3. 1.6 GW of installations in 2012
4. Expecting 2.0 – 2.1GW in 2013, so expecting growth of 25% - 31%.
5. Named to one of 10 most innovative company in China.
6. Cost of production expected to decrease additional 10% in 2013.
7. Operating expenses will be $200 - $250M in 2013 ($50 - $60 M per quarter).
8. OpEX in 4th Q was $76 M (which is $304 M annualized).
9. New upcoming orders coming from S. Africa and Latin America.
10. Utility scale projects accounted for nearly $0 in revenues this year.
11. Won 2 utility scale projects in China – 200 MW distributor generator project and another project in Gansu that will have 600 MW project for 4 years – and these winnings will be announced shortly.
12. Have 100 MW utility scale projects outside of China – California and Puerto Rico projects. Will be announcing these also.
So let’s see … the company has nearly 1 Billion in cash, positive operating cash flow, OpEx decreasing by $50 M+ in 2013, cost of production decreasing by an additional 10% in 2013, has utility scale project of nearly $0 in revenues in 2013, but will be announcing 600 MW + 200 MW projects located in China + 100 MW projects outside of China, is aggressively getting into the utility solar business. SPWR sold their 579 MW to Warren Buffett for $2.0 – $2.5 B and TSL is going from nearly 0 MW of utility solar projects in 2012 to 800 MW of backlog going into 2013? My eyes nearly popped out when I saw these numbers.
When these projects are announced, TSL will double from current levels.
Furthermore, 3 firms (RBC, Credit Suisse and Roth Capital) all raised price target for TSL post earnings report by 50 to 100%. Have to admit that their price target is rather low (in the range of 4-4.50).