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dELIA*s Inc. Message Board

  • randyaivazis4 randyaivazis4 Jul 21, 2008 2:44 PM Flag



    Go to yahoo finance dlia key statistics this is trading below book with a BETA OF 1.25 looks like a great entry point.

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    • Yes, I agree with everything you said and if you believe Delia's will achieve its growth then yes its fine to be in at this price.

      However, my question was of a specific nature. How does the overhang effect the pps in the near term? That is the opinion I am seeking at the moment.

      Thanks for the reply.

    • I assume this overhang of 5 million shares is still out since I havent seen a filing saying otherwise. Now that we beat expectations and got upgraded isnt this the time to distribute the shares?

      Again, asking to time an entry back in after the run up.

      Yes, I know if you are Warren Buffet this has nothing to do with how Delia's performs, lol.


    • Well this is purely anecdotal, but I saw a niece of mine (12 years old) this past weekend who had always had a very lukewarm response when I asked her what she thought of Delia's in the past. Anyway, this weekend she said it's now her favorite store and the clothes are so much better than before, etc...

      It certainly doesn't form the basis for an investment in the company but I thought it was interesting.

    • from what i've seen, i think our bts merchandise is very well received. we'll find out next month but i think michele has done a great job. ppl noted improvement in fabric, fit and style.

      i dont know if u've seen the news but there have been significant turmoils at our direct competitors with top ppl leaving/demoted so i hope we can take advantage of competitors problems.

      i believe we will continue to outperform most of our competitors in terms of comp sales and our merchandise margin will continue to improve, however im projecting retail lbit to be higher than last year's q2 and i won't be surprised if overall lbit to be closer to $6 million.

      on the negative side, macro environment has worsen dramatically since june. and we lost our online director to fao schwartz (significant increase in compensation).

    • Hey Robin-
      Any thoughts on the future direction of the business itself? Is it all over or what?

    • i agree with wave

      in the short term its about supply and demand.

      to me, the odds are quite high that a significant amount of those to be distributed shares would be dumped in the market at any price.

      im really looking forward to it. go go $1

    • "We have no idea why he's liquidating the fund other than what he said in the Reuters article."

      Are you serious? Do you think he'd be liquidating the fund if it had been up 50% in '07? We know why the fund is liquidating. He had a terrible '07 and his investors want what's left of their money back. I know it's your nature to automatically disagree with everything but come on dude...

      "you cannot state with a relatively high degree of certainty what investors will do in the short-term with a particular security."

      Yes you can. The majority of people that receive shares will sell them. I can't predict what any one individual will do (for that you would need to be a mind reader) but you certainly can predict what a group of people will do given a certain set of circumstances.

    • "Its impossible to tell what if any pressure on the stock MLFs former investors might have."

      Not necessarily. MLF is obviously not liquidating the fund because his investors want more exposure to Delia's. I think one can state, with a relatively high degree of certainty, that when 20% of the company's shares are distributed to investors (that likely don't want to own them) the selling that will ensue is likely to drive the share price down. I really don't think that's a bold statement. It's just simple supply and demand.

    • True but you have to remember with a retailer like this you have to heavily discount book value to get a true reflection of what might come out of a liquidation scenario. For example, I believe Delia's carries merchandise at expected retail value on their balance sheet(I could be wrong). Well everyone knows that seasonal/trendy clothing is a rapidly depreciating asset (probably faster than my SUV) so they'll never be able to sell their merchandise for what it's carried at on their balance sheet.

      To me the more intriguing valuation metric here is Delia's selling at .2X sales. If (and it's a big if) they can somehow achieve an 8-10% after tax profit margin on these revenues Delia's is an absolute steal at these levels. The reason it's trading at these levels of course is that the market has lost faith in managements' ability to make this happen. Plus the fact that we're in the midst of a nasty consumer-led economic slowdown with no end in sight (unless we have a dramatic collapse in oil prices and stabilization in home prices - both of which are well within the realm of possibility).

      • 2 Replies to wavetrader321
      • I have been buying a couple thousand shares on every dime drop but I wonder how that distribution will effect the stock.

        When the fund distributes the shares would the general inclination be to just sell the shares and reinvest for those holders? Seems it would cause some downward pressure on the stock for a while and the MM would have to know it and be ready to take the stock down as incentive to inventory the shares.

        Any thoughts on this?

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