dELİA*s AŞ Message Board

  • towlerfamily towlerfamily Nov 11, 2009 11:37 AM Flag

    Sub $2

    So here are the sub $2 prices I promised you, imd. Not like a news flash, of course you can see it's under $2 as well as I can, but I had to come up with a subject line. Question is, would you buy Delias here? The low volume and upcoming earnings on the 24th spook me. If anything goes right the stock should move up pretty fast, but if things are bad and don't appear to be getting any better (no encouraging trends) there's no getting out, not unless you just have a few thousand shares. If you have a position of any size your pretty much married to this thing going into the call. Better say your prayers. That said, the downside is limited by the cash they've got, which is why I'm dabbling in DLIA to begin with. I gotta think on this...

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    • Sorry imd, I hope you didn't lose too much on this one. I didn't know what to expect, only that it probably wouldn't be very good, which is wasn't. No surprises really.

    • I sold out first thing on the rest of my shares.

      This was about as disappointing report as I have read in total.

      First, the SSS decline in Oct was followed by the same trend in Nov. This is consistent with the other retailers.

      Next, they lowered expectations of SSS in next quarter and EBITDA forecast.

      Then, they lowered cash on hand to 45-50 from 50-55. More importantly, by suspending new stores what are they really saying about the ones they just opened? If they cant open new positive cashflow stores in this environment then I am very concerned.

      This cant be good for next year if SSS continue to decline and we are still losing money.

      Time for me to get to the side and wait.

    • I wonder if market makers ever just slosh a stock around (buying and selling from themselves, if that's possible) to create the illusion of liquidity? I don't know anything about market making or why any person or firm would do that, and I'm sure not into conspiracy theories...just funny to sit here every day and watch tens of thousands of shares trading hands, all within such a narrow band of a few cents, over such a long period of time. Who the heck would be buying tens of thousands of shares today that didn't buy them last Friday or last week or the week before that? And who would be selling? And what would their motivation be? All these trades at basically the same price for 2-3 weeks. I'm sure there's a perfectly good reason...I'm just not real market savvy when it comes to that kinda stuff. I've witnessed large block trades being executed before, where the price was negotiated away from the market I think, and then it all went through brokers, so you had a situation where all day, all this stock went across the ticker at the same price. But that was all over in one day if I remember right.

    • I could never get a straight answer from the rep in the past. I will ask again tomorrow if I put in any buy orders and see if they give me something concrete.

    • Bingo...same thing with Scottrade. Tried to place a limit order for 1000 at 1.88. I got "Please contact your local branch about placing an order on this security". Only time I've ever seen that before is when I've tried to get the borrow to short. So what's up with that???

    • Interesting thing today:

      I am heading out this afternoon and was trying to enter a buy order at 1.88 in case someone decided to sell off before the report.

      I trade through TD Ameritrade. Buy orders have to now be placed with the broker instead of the internet.

      Usually this happens when they see some trading patterns they dont like.

      You can sell it still through the web, but buy orders through brokers. Just a pain. But its interesting to note.

      You guys see this with your brokers? Try and place a limit order at 1.5 and see if it takes.

    • Boston and Towler,

      All great points.

      At this point I guess its time to wait and see what Delia's has to say.

    • imd stick with what works for you. Better to do something you understand although it might be odd or quirky or uniquely yours rather than trying to use a more widely accepted strategy you don't feel 100% comfortable with. These are smart guys here but the problem is everybody has access to the same information and is trying just as hard to predict where the stock wil go in the future when things maybe go the way they think it will go. its the old efficient markets thing, all the knowledge in the world kind of goes down the drain or becomes of questionable value when you realize there are 1000 guys as smart as Boston K. and Robin O. who know everything they know and are trying just as hard to make $$$ on Delias and yet here Delias is at $2 given everything that is known and speculated about the future, so is it worth more or less than $2 right now? Nobody knows...and nobody knows what the future will be like for this company. So you stick with what works for you. Me, I like to read what the smart guys have to say...but as far as investing goes, stick with what works for you. If there was really a single right way to invest & we all adopted it, the whole stock market would cease to function because everybody would invest and divest or short the same stocks at the same levels of magnitude and everything would freeze up. Viva le difference! its what keeps the crazy machine running.

    • Why did I know you would post that, lol.

      I have learned taking small losses in my style of trading is much better then getting saddled with stocks that use all my capital and frustrate as I wait to get back to breakeven.

      Everybody has to have their own style, I wish you nothing but success with yours.

    • I wish they had spell check on this darn thing...

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