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dELİA*s AŞ Message Board

  • wavetrader321 wavetrader321 Mar 4, 2010 9:17 PM Flag

    Pretty Chart

    I know there are many who don't care about this type of thing but Delia's is sporting an awfully pretty chart right now. I think this dog may be ready to rock and roll...

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    • Shorting DLIA would make absolutely no sense.

    • From a technical perspective DLIA remains essentially neutral at midday. Given the post-earnings spiral down it is no surprise that indicators such as momentum, moneyflow and distribution are extremely negative. For the trader the resistance/support mix is even more discouraging. There is a plethora of resistance areas starting at 1.81, 1.90 and 2.05. For the moment 2.05 appears virtually impenetrable sporting triple visit maximum distribution characteristics. On the other hand DLIA is unattractive for a short trade. Although there is no support at all at current price and therefore a breakdown watch has been signaled the downside potential is limited. The upside trade is more attractive in terms of profit potential, profit/loss ratio, and overall trade quality. In short, for the speculative investor the upside trade is significantly more attractive than the downside trade. The only caveat is that the occurrence probability of the upside trade is no better than the occurrence probability of the downside trade.

    • Nevermind. Should've known.

    • Well if you mean in last March, 2009 yes it increased their earnings and SSS. But it also destroyed some earnings in future quarters as they took their eye off the ball, overstocked and reduced margins.

      Hott declined to get heavily involved in the sequel.

      I have some posts over on the HOTT board that I think address the issues so I wont take up to much space here. If you want, leave me a post over there on any questions and we can discuss it and let anyone else chime in.

    • "I listened to the Hott Topic call and really like them to rebound after their next quarter."

      Don't you think a lot of their earnings are from the release of the Twilight Movie and recent release of the DVD?

    • Yes, it is perking up. It will be interesting to see if Delia's can add any follow through in terms of positives from the call. I would think at this point its all about guidance.

      Retail in general has really perked up. Restaurant stocks have done the same. Regional banks have started moving. I have been trying to review other under performing sectors to see if we find another one ready to go.

      I listened to the Hott Topic call and really like them to rebound after their next quarter. I would be a buyer now and strong buyer under 6. PSUN had exactly the report I thought they would have but the stock had already rallied so the pullback I expected is off a higher level then I like. I really dont want to own it higher then 4.5 and dont even like it at that level but I would probably buy but just keep a mental stop and if it violates I sell.

      Two retailers that are net nets that I like are Heelys, if you can get it under 2.25 I would and just put it away for a while. AC Moore, the fabric guys have operational issues but the balance sheet is to good I think to pass on. Wait for the call and if weak I would go in.

      I think the retailers have taken that next step in recovery. I have a feeling in a year we will look back at a lot of these prices and wonder why we didnt load the truck, boat, wheel barrow, etc.

    • Nah, just joking around about possible explanations for why technical analysis might give confusing and contradictory messages. On a different note, it's nice to see Delias perking up a little, isn't it?

    • Buy low, sell high?

    • I would care if I know how, what about the chart makes it pretty?

 
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