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dELİA*s AŞ Message Board

  • towlerfamily towlerfamily May 8, 2010 12:25 AM Flag

    What I expect next

    Over the next few weeks, it wouldn't surprise me to see a lot of selling as the result of traders reacting to the behavior of other traders. You guys are all familiar with this. When an event occurs that investors don't fully understand, a lot of times there's this sense that you've gotta do something. You've gotta figure it out somehow and take some kind of action. But usually the only thing that would really help you is inside information, which you don't have access to. So you start using the stock price as a kind of barometer (which is really stupid but I've done it myself), and when you see the shareprice begin to decline, you think maybe others know something you don't know, and you get scared. So you start selling, and somebody else sees your selling and sells, and you get the snowball effect.

    The way I look at it, I don't know any more or any less about Delias than I did last week, other than the fact that the CEO left. I don't know what that means. It might be a bad thing. On the other hand, it might be a good thing. Or it may turn out that it doesn't matter much either way. So I'm going to do the only logical thing, which is nothing. I'm content to sit and wait and see what happens. What I WON'T do is start ruminating over the share price and trying to read something into declines I see, because those declines will likely be caused by sellers who don't know any more about the situation than I do.

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    • Well, you're honest anyway. Most people on Yahoo boards never admit to any losses. I knew you'd started building a small position in NWY. I hope it wasn't too big. I took 2K at 2.47 today and then another 2K at 2.33 or 2.32, I can't remember which right now. I was sort of an impulse buy, as I hadn't listened to the call or spent very much time digesting the news. We may not have seen the lows in NWY yet.

    • I was surprised by the size of the selloff. I mean, I wonder if that was the guidance on the call where the price would have gone. I doubt anywhere near this low.

      But that is what happens after you have a runup (trapped investors), disappoint and then just F/U in 3 weeks.

      I guess they deserved what they got.

      From 2.45 be patient you should do fine.
      I loaded up under 2.5 but the holding I had started to early will do this in. This is more about recovering capital as the selloff prevented me from getting out and reentering. I will probably be flipping shares here. Plus we need to see if the low is in. I will hold some for sure.

      Retail overall is weak, trying to be patient but I started to soon on NWY.

      Tippy toeing into the other retailers despite the bad trade in NWY. But only the ones with deep balance sheets.

    • Wow is right. I took 2K of NWY at 2.45 just now. Quite a sell-off.

    • Wow, that was fast. NWY already lowered guidance. Its all on pricing as SSS are going to be flat. They brought in inventory and they have to liquidate and they are taking the hit.

      And so will I....

      Probably hold my nose and see if it hits 2.70.

    • I agree, let it pullback and then we see.

      What concerned me recently was all the similiar misses in WTSLA, HOTT, PSUN (finally cratering) but the one report that really caught my eye and concerns me was Buckle. They really missed and that one bothers me.

    • Dont forget HOTT paid out a $1 dividend, so when I look at the 52 week low I use 4.25 versus where it currently is. NWY had a very disappointing call and its balance sheet is only avg. I look at the chart and seen 3.25/3/2.70. I would start now but use a scale in strategy.

      BEBE is the strongest balance sheet. I mean they have almost 4 per share in cash if you add in the long term govt securities. They finally have closure on their auction rate securites so its a pretty solid 4 per share. So at 6.3 you are talking almost 2/3 of the share price supported by cash. Pretty strong in retail.

      I dont sense a quick market turn. The John Wooden quote of be quick but dont hurry applies. Pick your favorites, have a strategy and prepare for violatility and scale in. So be quick in doing your analysis and dont hurry in but scale in over time.

      My two cents for what its worth.

    • Didn't mean to sound so negative with that last post. As a company Delias really hasn't changed much from 6 months ago, and I still own half my original position. It's investor sentiment I'm commenting on, and how that's affecting some of the smaller, more speculative retail names. I guess there's a positive side to it as well, the fact that you can pick up some reasonably good retail names on the cheap right now. I'm looking at NWY and HOTT.

    • Like imd said, $1.38 is the lowest this stock has ever been, but I don't take much comfort from that. Obviously when it traded at $1.38, it was selling for less than it had ever sold for previously, and there's no reason to think it can't do that again (i.e., sell for less than it ever has before). The sense I have is that DLIA could easily fall right through $1.38 with no problem. No identifiable catalysts, no encouraging trends...what's to support it? Just cash on the balance sheet, that's it.

      You're going to start seeing the effects of fear here pretty soon. I mean selling related to the speed at which the shareprice is falling. Somewhere between $1.30 and $1.00, greed will come into play again and stabilize the price.

    • DLIA looks like its just drifting down to ????????

    • I didn't realize HOTT had come in so much, it's nearly at a 52-week low. It hasn't traded this low for a couple years. NWY looks good, too.

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