There is no fundamental valuation support for SCTY. The stock ran up on the Elon Musk hype and a tight pre-lock-up release float. The lock-up expiration is injecting millions of additional shares into the market and the equity markets are quickly becoming rockier. The return to fundamental value will be a steady process with occasional upticks and the fierce rally every now and then. that said, SCTY is headed down. Bubbles pop during equity market transitions. SCTY will find a floor around $12-15. It may take a month or 12 months, but it will happen. Doubters are encouraged to look at the roadkill of previous bubble stocks that had zero fundamental support....MCP, REE, BVSN, BIDU, GRPN, ZNGA, TZOO, KIOR....I could list 100 more, but the dynamics are almost always the same. Hot sector, huge promises about something 5+ years in the future, zero fundamental support...and then a gradually implosion. SCTY will hit $15 within 1 - 12 months.
I completely agree with you. The one other dynamic you failed to mention is that as the millions of new shares work their way into the market, the borrow rate will fall steeply and new shorts will take advantage of this "easy short" and keep persistent selling pressure on SCTY. Delusional long investors never seem to learn even though you listed several of the fad sectors that preceded SCTY; rare earths, social media, bio-fuels, ethanol, etc. Watch out below!!