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SolarCity Corporation Message Board

  • nashmon nashmon Apr 6, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    Folks here sound convinced that the bottoms in this stock.

    Having traded the late 90's and into the corresponding crash in 2001 I see a lot of similarities. The majority of the analysts were bullish, retail investors were pounding the table when Naz approached a 50% correction. Then the rug got pulled out and wiped everyone off the table. Specifically the margin buyers.

    What has me convinced that this stock will go lower is that same scenario. Similiarly to FEYE, solar city got the majority of its attention by analysts within weeks of it's top. I was short FEYE the day prior to it being updraded to overweight and a 105 objective by Deutche Bank if memory serves. That was roughly 30 days ago. It opened at 95 bucks up from a 90 prev day close and ticked high 90's. The stock is now 50 bucks.

    Most of the brokers got bullish this stock between 60 and the low 80's. When they eventually cut their ratings to hold or neutral or whatever silly recommendation they use I would wager to say the price will be substantially lower. Also keep in mind the S&P just last week hit an alltime high. Any garden variety 5-10% correction in it and the high beta sectors will get plowed.

    Disclosure, I am short the stock and have a $45 objective.

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    • i don't think the bottom is in yet- especially when i see $55 puts being traded each week in the apr 19th options lol. also, bottom of keltner 3.0 is at $52.xx- and scty won't be oversold until it gets thru the bottom of the keltner 3.0- and as a stock goes down in price, so too will the bottom keltner 3.0 price too as the keltner channel is based on the 20 ema and the avg true price range of a stock. so, at $50 or so, scty should be showing as oversold as it should be thru the bottom keltner 3.0 at that point.

      feye is thru the bottom keltner 3.0 as of friday - so, it will most likely have a bounce up in price very very soon!! BUT, i see that huge gap there on its chart from jan at around $43 to fill the gap - so, i would expect that at some point in this decline, that gap will get filled before the bottom is in for feye.

      great points made re the 1990's dot era!! i wasn't around then for trading so i always appreciate hearing info from the traders who were in the markets back then - so, thx so much for giving out this info!!

      and way to go with those trades you made!!!! that is awesome!!!

      keep up the great work AND the great posts ;) :)

    • 55 area better hold or we could get a lnkd kind of sell off and we could reach 45-50 area quickly…i think we may have reached a short term bottom but next week we may get that panic sell off and that will tell us a lot.

    • Your "experience" is nothing but a hindering emotional baggage to your clear thinking. You ever thought why wall street declines to recruit someone went thru bear market? Obviously, you think Bull market is over. I bet you were bullish when Nasdaq was 4400. You became bearish because it is 8% off the top. I became bearish end of Feb, shorted massive TSLA and just covered with nice 35% gains. Now, I am going long on techs.
      If you haven't learned the lesson from the history...Bull market is not done until it gets ridiculously over bought, Not even close.

 
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