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Lucas Energy, Inc. Message Board

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  • critz_d critz_d Jul 14, 2010 9:44 PM Flag

    please explain the following text involving lei

    what are the activities,and how much money do they have,how many wells can get online this year,what will they exit the year with as per production.i want to go back in,but i see no real reason too.am i seeing the shifting of assets to do what with.

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    • On pages 21 and 22 of the 10K they list out some of the capital projects they have planned for the next year, along with the development costs and expected IPs.

      As for how much money they have, my best estimate is about 8 million in cash. The 10K only tells us what they had on 3/31 (before the Hilcorp sale).

      As to how many wells Hilcorp will drill this year and the year end production net to Lucas, there are too many variables to really say. The number I am coming up with is maybe 300 barrels per day, but it's basically a guess based on Hilcorp drilling two wells that decline hyberbolically to around 200 barrels/day, giving Lucas 60 barrels/day net from that, plus another 100 net from this year's capital projects (assuming production drops to 1/2 expected IP), plus maybe 140 net from their existing production. That would certainly be enough to fund LOE and G&A, next year's workover projects, and hopefully a few wells with Hilcorp.

      I am also on the fence about whether to invest here or wait for Eagle Ford drilling results. I need to read the reserve report more carefully and model out how much of the PUD reserve value will go to G&A as the properties are developed. Another thing to consider is that there are still 3.2 million shares that might be issued under the ATM equity agreement. They previously were sold in the $1.80 range but since there is more cash now I would think they will hold off on issuing more shares at least until Eagle Ford drilling results come in.

 
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