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YRC Worldwide Inc. Message Board

  • peristentone peristentone Dec 1, 2009 2:39 AM Flag

    What is a Valid EBITDA Going Forward?

    Assuming the debt exchange happens, what is a reliable EBITDA number to use for Roadway going forward? If you look at the historical numbers for 2008, they should be able to do $500M EBITDA. Many in this forum are arguing that won't be possible, but why? (Note: a lot of you are responding to questions about EBITDA by talking about earnings, but earnings is much different. EBITDA is the operating cash, plus the depreciation earnings, plus the interest and taxes. It won't necessarily resemble earnings at all.)

    Something I would also like to have explained is why the current year data show a massive EBITDA loss. Are those one time write offs or are they pointing to a structural problem that will keep Yellow running negative EBITDA even after a debt exchange?

    In calculating potential values after the debt exchange, I see some very large liabilities that apparently will still be there after the debt exchange. These are:

    LT Debt: $892M
    Other Liabilities: $795M
    Deferred LT Liability: $132M

    There is also some residual in the short term debt after the debt exchange is done.

    Should these four be treated as the company's remaining debt after debt exchange? That's nearly a $2B debt load *after* exchange? It's an awfully big hill to climb over....

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