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YRC Worldwide Inc. Message Board

  • nyse_trader nyse_trader May 17, 2010 6:54 AM Flag

    I bought 120 000 APCVZ at 0.21 !! watch APCVZ today !!!

    After hours of DD and reading the balance sheets and Q1 report for APP i realized one simple thing , which no one realized here :
    APP treat CVR as obligation and use mark-to market accounting to evaluate the real value of the CVR (quarter by quarter )!!! so the real EBIDTA for Q1/2010 is 98 145 000 usd...but because of Change in the value of contingent value rights with ( 24 480 000 usd) the Adjusted EBITDA – per CVR drop to $72,407 !!!

    So...lets accept that APP will make at least 98 millions per Q until the end of 2010( 3 Quarters left) that means 300 millions more Ebidta !!!
    We have already 735 962 000 millions EBIDTA at the end of Q1/2010 !!add 300 000 000 more...and we going to have ...1.35 billion Ebidta...
    the EBIDTA from those 2 new approved cancer generic drugs(2.5 billions annual sale) must be only 200 millions USD to reach 1.2 billion EBIDTA for CVR to be worth 6 usd !!!! mark that....

    So what happen during all this drop? they accumulated CVR during this time...using paid basher to post negatives about this CVR !!!

    those of you who hold until the end of 2010 will be rewarded huge !! i will say 6 usd per cvr for sure...!!!

    IF APCVZ CVR cross 1 usd mark that is strong signal that will close at 6 usd at the end of 2010 !!!
    I am glad that i bought 120 000 CVR at 0.21 !!
    strong buy!

    EBITDA CALCULATION:
    Net income (loss) $ 11,866 $ (321,421 )

    Interest expense (net of interest income) 75,120 570,011
    Income taxes (3,703 ) (7,228 )
    Depreciation 5,132 42,351
    Amortization 9,730 491,658

    EBITDA $ 98,145 $ 775,371


    Reconciliation to Adjusted EBITDA:
    Stock compensation 122 6,250
    Merger and separation related costs 270 49,024
    Puerto Rico costs * — 32,802
    Technology transfer costs * — 2,098
    Change in the value of contingent value rights (24,488 ) (133,867 )
    Other taxes 176 1,562
    Gain on sale of fixed assets (625 ) (284 )
    Consulting fees — 600
    Foreign currency (gain)/loss (2,421 ) (4,895 )
    Puerto Rico closure costs 367 6,144
    Other non-cash charges 861 1,157

    Adjusted EBITDA – per CVR $ 72,407 $ 735,962

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