it was also the analysts downgrades pre concessions in conjunction w. lawsuit. in other words, it was f'd up. lots of work to be done but its going to fill some gap up, just which one. too many shares short, its the covering, by force that will drive price, not fundies.
also remember they are at 5B and making negative $400M right now and the forward estimates do not show them making money in 11 or 12. I think its hard to argue that they will make more than $75M, the question is will they not have to issue that many shares
That is the big question and why this stock dropped so much after the union deal, not the lawsuit and that is why it has only popped 6% tonight
how do you figure they can make 140M on 5B in sales when the best they have ever done is 288M on 9B shares
Remember this is a volume game, profits go up exponetial with volume but they also go down that way with bad volume
as for my moron comment, there are a lot of people saying $25, $100 etc. You have to admit, lots of them on this board. I follow a CLD and CSR on this board, not nearly as many crazy posts
Ok rick my subject was sensational to get a response, when I post serious stuff nobody responds. I'm hoping I'm wrong on this but this is what I think is holding the stock back:
most ever made was $288 million (on 9B in sales) now they sell 5B. Lets say they can make $75M on that due to efficieny of new contract. They need to convert debt, i'm afraid it's $300M and the teamsters will want $50M for their sacrifice. Thats $350M and the market cap is (lets say $175M after tomorrow - generous). Doesnt that mean they'll have to issue at least 95 million new shares so then there will be approx 142M shares outstanding?
75/142 = .52 eps x 8 = 4.22 max for this stock but only after they prove they can make $75M - and right now they are losing
Am I wrong, I'm hoping so
crap my mom came in and I'm supposed to be in bed had to stop quick
Before today everyone was talking about the ABF suit - which was a dumb suit by ABF to try to get the YRCW deal, and was never seriously impacting the price of this stock (up 6% in AH).
This story is ALL about the potential dilution in the union deal
That is what will drive this stock and the risk they can't find financing at all
Wake up, if you do not understand this sell all your shares and buy an index fund until everyone is convinced the market will never go down again then sell, then when the market has plummetted and every talking head is screaming the sky is falling buy back in. You'll do much better that way