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YRC Worldwide Inc. Message Board

  • johns.patrick johns.patrick Jan 5, 2011 8:48 PM Flag

    You know I think if they avoid BK the stock could be .10

    if they need to get $300 million then that new investor wants almost the whole company. they may agree to leave a nominal value to get current SH to go along (it will be easier because the company is not authorized to issue that many new shares) they can get around authorization rules but not to the point current guys have a -0-. so I think it is reasonable that they issue 1.2 billion new share for the $300 million new cash. This is .25 per share. total market cap of $312 million. Question to longs, do you force a BK if they tell you we'll let you keep $12 million? I really don't know

    Lets say the longs agree and vote to allow the shares, now there is panic, to earn that $312 value someone has to beleive the company can make $40 million in 2012 right, it can't get a multiple more than 8 x I don't think, remember it will still have $700 million in debt, an aging fleet mgt has indicated needs to start being replaced and a union contract (albeit they are working with mgt right now) so there is a little sell off down to .10 (especially since we'll have to authorize a RS again maybe the .10 sell off is after the RS)

    Am I crazy? How can you value this thing for more than $300 million?

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    • I was crazy, looks like they will issue even more shares

      Sorry guys, I think it is time to sell. This stock is way overvalued based on the announcement (I only read the headlines but 2.5% says it all)

    • I'll admit he is the most addicted poster I've run across. But I don't find a lot wrong with what he posts

      TX you do admit you have a problem right

      I do, hell I sold my share but I still visit the board just because it draws me in

      Actually, it seems like the bulls have really slowed down over the past week

    • missed some of those comments. The best one was dumba$% $300 million is samea s $25 million why would they want extra shares.

      I didn't even understand that but it's good to know he thinks I'm a dumba*S.

      TX I get your drift but we all know what a BK means so it's not that interesting to discuss. A BK means zero and we're done.

      I was trying to understand the rational for holding the stock which means a best case scenario. The best case scenario is they find an investor. Can you see an investor doing this for less that 1.2 B new shares, they would have to minimize the existing shareholders

      Also I'm assuming they tell the union this is really the last chance, you aren't getting any of my shares if I invest $300 million I own all the new shares.

    • zinicola@att.net zinicola Jan 6, 2011 9:20 AM Flag

      Well, remember zollars has said over and over that it is a 5 billion dollar company(revenues) and thus he thinks the way to value the company is by revenue. Again, there is value in the assets but not as a whole. It needs to be broken up into pieces and hopefully then some value will be unlocked. Problem, the banks already have liens on all the assets so they would have to go along with a sale as well as unions and pension funds. Not an easy tasks. It is the only way yrc shareholders come out of this whole. Long shot I guess would be to issue preferred shars but that would be even more difficult to get all the above to agree on.

    • dumbass 300million would have the same value as 25million why would they want the extrs shares.

    • well that is not very friendly of you (or you really don't know what the answer). As I recall I gave you lots of free info on the debt last night

      Regardless though, here is the problem it doesn't really matter if they can avoid raising new capital right now, if they don't raise capital they can't make their interest payments, that will NOT be waived. remeber EBITDA is an ok indicater for a company like an oil pipeline that really doesn't ahve to make new investmetns for a trucker it is a terrible indicator because teh D in ebtida is actually about equal tot he capital requirements and the I, well the I is a real cash outflow,

      At some point your real arguement is you think they can earn their way out of $1 billion in debt. I disagree, i think they have to recap their way out of $1 billion in debt, regardless of what the agreement says

    • I am not here to educate you after you bring up the subject! Do your own DD! My investment decisions are based on my own DD and not what YOU think! Good luck to you!

    • No problem, although I haven't actually read that section. What is the Required EBITDA?

      But again if they do get the waiver, what happens to the stock price? It's a company that can't generate postitive cash flow and has 1 billion in debt. What is the catalyst to drive the stock up more than the rest of the market (significantly more than the rest of the market since it is high risk)

    • You brought it up as a big thing! I just pointed you in the direction to show you the equity raise can be waived if YRCW meets certain EBITDA levels! You got a problem with that?

    • forget the agreements, they need a profit to pay the bills. EBITDA is not = to cash flow (especially when the lenders start asking you to pay the interest)

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