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YRC Worldwide Inc. Message Board

  • johns.patrick johns.patrick Nov 16, 2011 1:52 PM Flag

    here is what I did with my YRCW stock

    sold out last January. Took money to CSR (small china company with a buyout offer in place) made 40%

    Took that money and invested in FSIN (small china company with a buyout offer in place) up 33% with potential of 100% on this one

    why are you guys holding this stock, there are other stocks with the same upside potential and much cleaner stories and less risk

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    • Well I think my rating should go up from a 2 star.

      FSIN board has approved the buyout offer and the stock is now trading at 8.82 (the offer is 9.50). This is an 11% increase - with a very high probability of gaining another 7.7%

      YRCW has tumbled down to 7.44 down from 11.76 or a decline of 37%

      Now if I just had the guts to short YRCW

    • looking again tracking, I did not make that post on FSIN a couple of days ago as you stated (you stated on the 29th) I posted that the same night I posted my tally (which was accruate at the time of the post the trade was 8.18)

      and if you read both posts, I said the same thing. FSIN had popped too much on what I read as somewhat bad news and it would drop back below $8 - I was hoping it would hold up a little while or maybe rise a bit in the AM so I could unload more shares. As you have posted, that is what I said on FSIN and on YRCW

      If you are thinking about FSIN here is what I'm doing. Nothing yet, I think it will drift down between now and the new deadline for the board to accept the offer then it will go up if the deal is finally killed or if it is pushed through as the stock is being held back by this silly lowball offer right now?

    • Ok, one last note since both of us being down was kind of like kissing your sister -

      New offer from CEO of 9.50 on FSIN tonight, price spiked to 8.50 but I was in meetings till 6 and missed the AH frenzy but I did sell about 10% of my holding at 8.18 so now it looks like:

      FSIN up 3.1%
      YRCWD down 17.8%

      since 11/17 challenge date

      Nice thing here is FSIN may hold up over $8 tomorrow but it will definately fall after that as the new offer is contemplated closing in march or april and nobody waits around for these chinese deals to close. So if you are interested buy in after it drops below $7

    • Final tally for the 1 month challenge:

      YRCWD down 18.9%
      FSIN down 16.1%

      So I won, now the S&P is up 1.4% during this past month, so I assume a lot of you will want to follow both of our moves going forward so you can take the short side

      Phil, dumped YRCWD for tax purposes I believe (i'm up on FSIN so I am holding)

      Just an FYI I still like FSIN is:

      -Trading at 7.5 2011 earnings
      -Trading at 3.0 x 2011 earnings after removing the $158 million of net cash they have on the BS
      - price to cash flow is 6.3
      -they improved the net cash position by $22 million last qtr and $41 million last year
      - projected to grow profit by 24% in 2012 (full disc - they made more in 2010 and they missed last qtr by .10)
      - big 6 signing the financials since last year

      anyway, if you are sick of YRCWD might want to check out one of those undervalued China stocks

    • all right, who rated me a 2, I'm more entertaining than most of the posters on this board

      dang it

      • 1 Reply to johns.patrick
      • johnspatrick !!! I just caught up on your posts. I have licked my wounds and harvested my loss for 2011. Other than shopping at Walmart and food carryout, i dont deal with China. China does not have a legal system with ground rules. Each political entity seems to make the rules as they go and basically wing it to their advantage. A short position on YRCW should be a winner until the PPS gets back in penny trader territory. Good luck and you are a pleasant read.

    • wow, out of nowhere an uppercut to the chin of Mr Phil, he's staggered and things have tightened up

      YRCWD down 3.7%
      FSIN down 11.5%

      the race to the bottom is back on

    • Mr Phil, you landed a serious body blow today, FSIN special committee allowed the buyout offer to expire and the stock got slammed 6%, while YRCW has been on a tear up 27% due to its reverse stock split??

      FSIN down 12.4%
      YRCW up 3%

      I was thinking I was MSU with the hail mary there a week ago but now I'm feeling like my beautiful punt return just got called back for roughing the punter

    • Mr Phil, I'm winning

      YRCW is down 19%
      FSIN is down 4%

      but watch FSIN tomorrow, board was presented a firm offer and has to answer by 5 PM Shanghai time

      If they say yes I think I'm going to build a lead you won't be able to match

      15 days to go

    • yrcw was down about 5% when I made the challenge, I think that is pretty sporting of me

      Talk to you cats in a month

    • 1) you'll note that I only post here every few months since I sold. This board fascinates me. The evidence that this stock had no value was so obvious I couldn't believe people held to the end. I liken it to people that play in a cash texas holdem game and don't quit until they have lost all their money even though in a cash game you can leave with all your money, 1/2 or -0- if you want

      2) My point was not my prowess, hell I bought some WLT also that didn't work out so well. My point is if you have lost 75%-99% of your money on this stock, you don't have to make it back on this stock, you can buy other stocks and make money off them. question is what makes you think this stock will rebound quicker than WLT for instance. Or in the case of FSIN, where the owner has made an offer to purchase at 11.50 and stock is still at $8 - why stay in this stock, now way it is going up 43% anytime soon. I understand this a very simple and obvious comment but then I come back and people still own this stock, so maybe it is not so simple

      3) I made exactly what I said I made on the chinese stocks and I think some baidu and HRBN (I made 8% on HRBN and chickened out - to much bad press) investors might disagree as well

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