When almost every pundit that CNBC interviews says the same thing : buy oils,asian and euro stocks and sell financials, you can rest assured the opposite is about to happen. I believe that if you are looking out more than week, we are closer to a top in oils, asian and euro stocks and closer to a bottom in financials. As far as CSE goes you have a huge cushion protecting you in the 16% cash dividend . I am averaged in just north of $16 so I have a 7% unrealized loss however I will be collecting my second dividend in December which offsets this unrealized loss(not realy because I have more than doubled my position from the first dividend). This allows you a margin of safety to wait for the Delaney cash machine to prove itself in the current credit enviornment.
i agree, the short or sell financials talk has been getting overplayed. now everyone on the planet pretty much knows financial stocks suck and there is a subprime crisis. the short has been the winning position and they may have had their fun but pretty soon anyone long will just not sell and they will have to cover. margin costs and paying dividends just wont be worth the risk. maybe it will take a little longer and i am sure there will be another short-set up by if they cant push this stock below $14 it just wont be worth it.
I think we have seen the bottom, and will come back 500 on the Dow before new year. Valuation, like all the financials, is very low. Also getting closer to ex-div date. So there are two things to propel us up versus a big unknown of general market direction.
While we re-test Aug lows, while that is my opinion, I will hold off any new buying till Dow down around low 12,000 area, and collect a nice big div on this stock while i wait to go higher, hopefully as soon as next qtrly release, from listening to Delaney on CC, business flow, fees, and margins are all excellent right now.