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CapitalSource Inc. Message Board

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  • lner2512 lner2512 Jan 18, 2008 5:38 PM Flag

    All middle market lenders are being taken down today

    I bought more today. I don't much care about future stock price when I can be reasonably certain of locking in a 15%plus cash return. On average, the market returns about 10% per annum over the long term, so I'm already beating that by 50%. Any future price appreciation is just icing on the cake, though I do like lots of icing!

    Upsides? We know the Fed will continue cutting rates. The odds of the TONE merger going through are higher than the market seems to believe. As far as I know, CSE does not depend on the monoline insurers to insure any debt, although I'd like to hear about it if I'm wrong.

    Downsides? It's a financial! The dividends is too high! SELL, along with the rest of the crowd! Seriously, the downside is that one of their significant loans goes bad and the collateral is insufficient. There is probably a downside if the TONE merger fails to go through but that's hard to say.

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    • To some extent this fear is warented. Consumers have been borrowing aganst the equity that they thought they had. The equity is less and a source of spending money is also gone.

      There is also the fear that other companies did unethical lending like C did. I realized the C had integity issues after the .com bust and haven't done bussiness with them since.

      Home bulding workers, mortgage bokers and many real estate agents are umemployed.

      Bush wants to solve the problem by borrowing more money and the FED is playing mister scrodge.

 
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