Nothing...nothing has changed from last month when we were in the teens!!! This shit doesnt make any freaking sense. Its free falling and no f^cking support!
You probably don't know that it all started because Schummer, a democrat, let IndiMac fail in favor of his party. This triggered the wave a failures as much as the democratic policies such as 'every american a house' (even those you can't afford it) and the policies around Freddy and Fannie (democrats pushed for relaxing regulations around Freddy/Fannie so those who can't affort still could get a house). After the next 4 years we all will be screwed enough that the favor will return.
As a business owner I thank you for giving us such a gloom future for voting for a party in favor of increasing cost of labor, so nobody will hire, bail outs of failed companies on the tax payer expense and gives out rebate checks to people not paying taxes. I'd say reality is setting in (with wall street and politics) and people are realizing what they did and what's happening. We will get through the next 4 years, and then real change will come...
Thanks sld...Stick in there and hopefully the tide will turn soon enough. I run and own with my wife a few dental offices in the DC area. So we are in an area that will be OK and in an industry that is not too effected by the economy. Although if you want to make any decent money in this field it would be cosmetic aspect of it which is highly impacted now.
I do agree with you that there is a level of uncertainty that comes with the previous loans closed prior to 2008 but what I count on the very stringent underwriting criteria that inherent part of Delaney institution. Will there be defaults sure....I believe KM or GL here have stated before that most of the NPL are in RMBS so far. Since we are going to get raid of the RMBS soon than we can say most of the problems with go with it. I am more interested in the loans that are being made now which I am 100% sure that will be made to businesses in the right type of industries such as healthcare and with microscope in hand running through their books. These new loans will make up the income from RMBS relatively quickly during the course of 24 months with much higher and safer income revenue though to very high spreads......
This is of course IMO only and I have put in $500K behind it on this company. So far I have been hurt bad but I am staying with the facts so far provided by the CSE in Qs and what I believe will happen over the course of next 2 years. I also believe that CSE is great position to be bought out next year in massive consolidation that must happen in the banking area...we shall see.
Thanks Serius, don't know what Mike's issue is, its unfortunate they take things so personally, destroys any credible thoughts they might have.
Anyway, I am the Executive GM for a conference center and we are getting hit hard. I cannot disagree with your analysis, it is usually very good. My point is that it is not so much CSE's structure that I am concerned about, it is their customer base and their ability to pay on their loans as the impact of this financial crisis unfolds. Where there is collateral and default, this is ok in the long run, but it will represent a short term earnings hit until collateral can be liquidated, and even at that, if they can unload hard assets at the price they need in an environment like this. If I were CSE management, I would be staying in close contact with my customers and the impacts to their business. They probably have a good handle on this pipeline, but they would not disclose in the interim to shareholders. It is difficult for me to believe there will not be an impact here since this crisis is so wide spread and accelerating.
Glad to hear your business is growing, you are blessed. Keep up the good work, you are part of the solution! We need some businesses to thrive in this environment.
The credit markets froze, and Over 500,000 people have lost their jobs. This with all the endless, it seems, bad news, and an increase in forclosures, by what? 25% from last year. Alot has changed and quickly! When things turn it'll be reflected in the price. I just hope we can all aford the wait!...GL
YOU BE WINNER!!!YOU DID!!!
There's a much bigger picture out there that is changing daily creating a worsening risk profile. The point is, you don't know what is changing inside CSE due to the worsening environment and won't know until management discloses. We are facing an historical economic crisis that will and/or is impacting CSE's customers ability to pay their loans. The domino effect is just beginning to be felt, jobs are disappearing, business is contracting everywhere. Do you really believe CSE operates in a bubble and will not be effected by all of this?
Well if this was the January than I can tell you I dont what is going on at CSE but the earnings was last week and it was great given the enviroment that you described. Given the increase in writeoff announce in the CC I am very optimistic about the level of new, higher margin, and highly stringent loans that were made give the fact that they just became a bank!!! If you take even more conservative approach and slash thier earning for 2009 by another 60 cents and apply a normal valuations of 7-10x PE than we are extremely cheap.
Also you along with couple others here always yelling out fire but if you step back and open your eyes to see that markets have pulled back almost 50%%%%!! You dont think that we have priced this loom and gloom already? Should we all get a knife and get ready to do a mass suicide because its all over now and there will no recovery to this mishep??? We went through many other crises before including 911 which is where the umemployment level is now....what happened after that???? DOW 14K, thats what.
sorry about sp.,..