Yesterday, I neither bought any stock nor did I sell the 25,000 shares that I have been holding. It was an interesting trading day and curiosity (and greed) played a big role in not taking money off the table. No question that there was market manipulation but I speculate that everyone following the stock knew it from the fact that there was no announcements from the company.
The way I look at it, the stock should not have risen yesterday and I am now still better off at $1.44 then i was on Tuesday when it closed at $1.25, especially givent he fact that the company can now cover the Phase IIb costs.
I have bought another 5000 shares today at $1.44 because I believe that the company bought a new lease on life. Sure the IIb can be a bust, but if there is positive news then the reward will be expodential. Small thinly capitalized biotech stocks are like playing the Powerball lottery, no better and no worse.
The option that Merck purchased earlier this year allows them to exercise that option any time prior to or at the time of completion of the current phase2b trial. Once Merck exercises its option, they not only pay a great deal more money to Opexa, right up front and over time, but take over responsibility for all further trial and commercialization costs. In other words, by the time Opexa might need more funds, if they do at some point, it is very possible that early results will be strong enough that Merck may jump in and exercise its option even though prior to the trial completion. It would pay Merck to seriously consider doing this since it is my understanding that should they exercise prior to trial completion their first payment will be just $15 million rather than the $25 million required if done after trial completion. There is a lot going on here behind the scenes. I am very optimistic longer term.
Good perspective. And not only does this small cap company now have a great deal of cash on hand, and the backing of a major pharmaceutical company--Merck--but the fact that 12 million shares were gobbled up by one or more Big Money players so quickly affirms a significant amount of Demand for this stock at this price range. The long term picture here has just gotten much stronger.