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MannKind Corp. Message Board

  • telsarowe telsarowe Jan 12, 2013 2:23 AM Flag

    Easiest 100% zero risk MNKD play available---

    Look @ the VIX. Lowest levels in history. Discursively across the market option premiums are incredibly depressed. The vix is so low that even the biotech sector, a traditionally volatile and high option premium space has succumbed to its depression.

    Returning from the JPM conference and speaking with two trial participants its clear the inhaler/technosphere is worth the hype. One of my main concerns with Afrezza has always been the sticking point of reduced lung function- The only plausible FDA delay/rejection roadblock imo. With both participants reduced lung function was negligible and less than half that of smoking a light cigarette. Too, they said the efficacy of Afrezza was most apparent after their trial ended and they cycled back on their pen injected insulin(s). I have zero doubt that top line P3 data (early August) will show better than even expected results. I say better than expected results due to the dream boat inhaler. The dream boat is really a novel and well designed product. It's much smaller than i had anticipated. Its about the size of an Elmer's glue stick. The cartridges are small and sexy. Sliding one in and out reminded me of sliding a slightly oiled metal clip into the magazine well of a 1911 pistol- just feels perfect. Apparently they will offer them in different colors and a key chain model.

    Turn key
    This company is as close to that overused business term as one can come. They have the custom technosphere plant built and ready for production albeit its quasi idled until FDA response. Though their balance sheet might hint otherwise, MNKD has excellent financial backing. They have Alfred Mann's considerable resources who will spend and do whatever it takes to bring Afrezza to market upon approval.
    Because of the broad and rapidly expanding diabetic population marketing will not be niche or difficult.
    Big pharma has lost drug exclusivity at unprecedented rates over the past 2 years and with their historical high levels of hoarded cash, acquisition will be a leitmotif over the next 2 years. Upon approval, partnership/buyout will be the least of MNKD's going concerns.

    Back to the post title
    Lets look at the MnKd LEAPS options calls for Jan 2014 and Jan 2015 $2 strikes. Call Premiums are currently $1 and $1.25 respectively. Thats incredible low volatility and beta. As MNKD approaches its action dates (P3 disclosure & then PDUFA) the volatility will increase dramatically from current levels. In fact it wouldn't be hyperbole to say it could come close to triple by PDUFA and certainly double by P3. Amazingly, this price appreciation could be realized without even holding the options through the PDUFA and the stock price not moving much from its current valuation!! For the more risk averse this is a darn easy play and the easiest 100% to be made in the biotech sector right now. And believe me I have looked.

    Note: this all holds true with the LEAPS put options as well, not just the calls

    I have $50K in option calls $2 & $5 strikes for Jan 2015. I also own
    almost 58,000 shares. My video is on youtube. Search google for $200,000 bet on MNKd

    Have a great weekend

    Tel$a Rowe

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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