Look @ the VIX. Lowest levels in history. Discursively across the market option premiums are incredibly depressed. The vix is so low that even the biotech sector, a traditionally volatile and high option premium space has succumbed to its depression.
Returning from the JPM conference and speaking with two trial participants its clear the inhaler/technosphere is worth the hype. One of my main concerns with Afrezza has always been the sticking point of reduced lung function- The only plausible FDA delay/rejection roadblock imo. With both participants reduced lung function was negligible and less than half that of smoking a light cigarette. Too, they said the efficacy of Afrezza was most apparent after their trial ended and they cycled back on their pen injected insulin(s). I have zero doubt that top line P3 data (early August) will show better than even expected results. I say better than expected results due to the dream boat inhaler. The dream boat is really a novel and well designed product. It's much smaller than i had anticipated. Its about the size of an Elmer's glue stick. The cartridges are small and sexy. Sliding one in and out reminded me of sliding a slightly oiled metal clip into the magazine well of a 1911 pistol- just feels perfect. Apparently they will offer them in different colors and a key chain model.
This company is as close to that overused business term as one can come. They have the custom technosphere plant built and ready for production albeit its quasi idled until FDA response. Though their balance sheet might hint otherwise, MNKD has excellent financial backing. They have Alfred Mann's considerable resources who will spend and do whatever it takes to bring Afrezza to market upon approval.
Because of the broad and rapidly expanding diabetic population marketing will not be niche or difficult.
Big pharma has lost drug exclusivity at unprecedented rates over the past 2 years and with their historical high levels of hoarded cash, acquisition will be a leitmotif over the next 2 years. Upon approval, partnership/buyout will be the least of MNKD's going concerns.
Back to the post title
Lets look at the MnKd LEAPS options calls for Jan 2014 and Jan 2015 $2 strikes. Call Premiums are currently $1 and $1.25 respectively. Thats incredible low volatility and beta. As MNKD approaches its action dates (P3 disclosure & then PDUFA) the volatility will increase dramatically from current levels. In fact it wouldn't be hyperbole to say it could come close to triple by PDUFA and certainly double by P3. Amazingly, this price appreciation could be realized without even holding the options through the PDUFA and the stock price not moving much from its current valuation!! For the more risk averse this is a darn easy play and the easiest 100% to be made in the biotech sector right now. And believe me I have looked.
Note: this all holds true with the LEAPS put options as well, not just the calls
I have $50K in option calls $2 & $5 strikes for Jan 2015. I also own
almost 58,000 shares. My video is on youtube. Search google for $200,000 bet on MNKd
Have a great weekend
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You're so full of it!!! Total trading volume on the 2015 leaps yesterday was 20 contracts @ $2 strike and 55 contracts @ $5 strike - worth about $5000 total. I advise everyone on this board to be leery what this guy says. He has no skin in the game and his motives are anything but long.
Lial, from reading his past posts, he claimed to be an MD and bet to convert $2.5K to $100K in Jazz puts. Vanished after that didn't work. Then pumped BIOD and bet it would go to $20. Just last week, he claimed he was short MNKD @ $4. Scary that he is long now.
Over the next few months I am going to fancy myself the new Paul Revere. I am going to rouse the investment countryside and tell them Afrezza is coming. Ill tell them to bust out their dry powder and "long" guns. But seriously, i know alot of big money folks i am going to get to lay down a little speculative $. I will make it up to this board and it longs for past transgressions. I will prove my worth through merit. First test is hard $3 resistance. Probably will fail at breaking it once or twice but we will push through soon enough.
Sentiment: Strong Buy