My estimate of $34 (after FDA approves) has become the most agreed upon and respected PPS number and that's because I showed sound reasoning (in an earlier post) and didn't just say b.s. like $100 or $200 PPS.
But, now I'm going to provide an upward revision with this:
** On the day of FDA approval, MNKD will spike to $39 per share.
It may only stay there for 10 or 20 minutes, but it will hit $39 and fall back to close in the low 30's.
Yes, that's a bold estimate. But, mark this post.
Buy a $5.00 Jan 15 call option for $0.60. If price on approval goes to $17.60 then that is a 20X profit (ignoring commissions and any residual value of option). On a percentage basis that is a 2000% return. Most investors would jump at a chance for that type of return. Even at just $12.60 that is a 10X bagger, returning 1000% profit. If you bought the stock outright at say $2.50 PS, then at $15.00 PS that would still be a 5X bagger, and provide a 500% return on investment. So I agree with you @gacohen03, that at lot of longs will take their profits on the date of approval. IMO, there is nothing wrong with that, based upon even the most conservative of post approval price estimates.
one more thing mannkindly..... you can post predictions ... great... but you should look at valuation and if you don't agree with the other that are saying why mnkd won't be valued at 20 billion you have to explain why you think it is..... basic. math.. numbers don't lie. and they are right. with about 500 million o/s at 39........20 billion... no possible way.. but i wish you luck with your guess
mannkindly... where your 39 is nice to hear mnkdmoney has a point that mnkd wouldbe valued about 2/3 of TEVA. at that pricer... and that is hard to imagine this early in the juncture... but we shall see... and I certainly hope.
This is the type of post that turns people away from this board and mnkd. Its ridiculous and makes mnkd longs look like incompetent bufoons. This is what we call a "violent pump". Its a pump so hard that its a verbal threat to anybody not long to the very end. $4B mkt cap after approval would be the maximum until they bring Afrezza to market and have a good Q of sales. Until then dont expect more than $4B.
Wow we agree on something! $10 - $14 max upon approval. Probably $6 - $8 day before PFUDA.
Only wild card that can change the above IMO is the partnership potential. If they pull a very favorable partnership out of left field with a large upfront payment of $750 million + those prices above would defenitly be low.
Your numbers are not reasonable, given the capital structure. At the end of 2010, full dilution was about 140 million shares. By mid 2014, full dilution is likely to be near 500 million shares. At 39 dollars, this would indicate nearly a 20 billion market cap for a company selling into a global insulin market that is less than or equal to that number. If Mannkind had 2% of the global revenues for insulin sales in 2015, they would consider themselves highly successful. You are suggesting they will be valued as if they will have 25% of the market heading toward 50%, and this is not reasonable. Type 1 diabetics will continue to use pumps, and much of the world will continue to use cheap injected insulins. If they are successful, you could see a company looking to get into or expand their diabetes product line by paying up for Mannkind, and you could see a situation where someone like Sanofi wants to block a competitor by purchasing Mannkind, etc. In any case, Mannkind is not likely to have a valuation over 6.5 Billion. This indicates a 12-13 dollar level. Retail investors could bid this stock up closer to the 20 dollar level, but there are only a few companies that would spend 10 billion on Mannkind, even if Mannkind hits their own projections. You need to look at the size of a market before you make predictions.
Biotech stocks after FDA approval don't react rationally.
I've owned some small biotechs that best case would sell 50 to 75 million of product their first year --- and guess what their stock went from $2 to $12 on the day of FDA approval.
Now with MNKD projected to sell 500 million to 1 billion of Afrezza their first year -- why couldn't they go from $2 to $34????
Yep, riddle me that dude.
Put down your crack pipe. Investors here are a laughable joke just like your mentor alfalfa Mann. Nobody will believe this old fool anymore - nor any of his team of jesters. Alfrezza will never come to market now. Partnerships are unlikely with this product. Dream on! Your estimates are a way out of line. You are suggesting market caps of 50 billion or more - just laughable!