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MannKind Corp. Message Board

  • opc11 opc11 Mar 19, 2013 12:45 PM Flag

    Current Offering

    A 424B5 is on mnkd's website. A couple things to note.

    Liquidity:
    They apparently do not intend to use the funds to pay down Al's LOC. They reserve broad rights to do so, but it does not seem to be their intentions. BTW, as of 12/31 the LOC still has $125mil available to the company. My guess is that entire amount is still available as the company likely used it's cash over the last 3 months. Cash as of 12/31 was aprox $62mil. Figure they used $30mil last month (likely less). That leaves them 32mil.

    The $115mil convertible comes due at the end of this year but so do the recently issued warrants. I anticipate about a $20mil deficit between the two.

    Without the announced $50mil raise, they have $155mil in liquidity available to them. I'll subtract the 20mil deficit to account for the year end converible leaving $135mil. At 10mil cash burn/mo they have 13 months' resources. The raise adds an additional 5 months. 18 months total gets them well past an approval decision (mid'14) and into Sept'14 or there about.

    The fact they are still raising money is a big tell IMO. There will be no partnership upon trial results nor does it appear they have anything concrete for a partnership (at this time) upon approval. f'in al.

    Shares Outstanding:
    There's 286mil shares outstanding as of 12/31.

    Additionally, there's 86mil shares issuable from warrants and another 45mil shares to be distributed resulting from other corporate activities (settlements, options, convertible notes). I doubt 5 mil of the 45mil will be distributed. It's priced at $22.47/share and would be due by the end of this year. Call it 40mil. These figures do not include yesterday's dilution (aprox 15mil shares if I had to guess)

    Without further dilution and including yesterday's announcement, the company's treasury will have approximately 286+86+40+15 = 427mil shares outstanding in the coming months/year. Hard to believe we were in the 100mil area not too long ago. thanks al!

    regards,

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    • GOOBLE GOBBLE!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I agree Oppie, there will probably not be a partnership until final approval. But you will flip in a few months before the data is released and you will be so disappointed that they still don't have a partnership. And your new nick name will be Oppie the flip flopper!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • you all see how SILLY oppie is? JMHO

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 4 Replies to goodbrain007
      • Let's see....

        Hmm nobrains thanks for reminding people how accurate I've been. pretty soon the idiots are going to think we're the same poster. ooops.

        I stated they needed to raise more money. CORRECT

        I stated the fact that they were still in fund raising mode didn't bode well for a partnership announcement and that no partnership would be announced following the release of trial data. (again, this was 3'13). Nailed it!!

        I stated we'd be closing in on 427 mil outstanding shares. Hey nobrains, let us know what the count is after all this dilution is completed w/ warrants, ATM, etc.

        ...and nobrains prognostications?? the stock may go to $3 and $8. Now that's intelligence you can bank on. lol

        ps- glad people are FINALLY waking up to what a complete MORON kevinmik is. I've been saying it for a long time. People sure are slow around here....(I exclude clevans, nobrains and smurphy from that. they're just plain #$%$ and we shouldn't make fun of them. granted it's hard though)

        ps2- clevans = goodbrains = michaelmurphy. you've all been warned. smurphy has an infatuation with me. check her posts. I can't recall the last time a post was directed at that bitter gash. I took her off ignore just to enjoy her shallow responses, lack of mnkd knowledge, lack of mnkd contributions, and pure bitterness that she doesn't get much attention. which I enjoy as much as when byergo chimes in. makes my day. :-)

        ps3 - bummer on the Pat's loss. all those Id's I'm supposedly posting under that were still posting last night......now you know they aren't me. but I love watching how stupid and wrong people are here and love it even more that they flaunt it. thanks for the laughs.

        sincerely,
        all my id's (lol, savzak figure it out yet or still bitter you got played?)

      • Its obvious this market cares very little about valuation. As tesla tanks and the social media name follow once into December biotech will get rocked as well. MNKD wont be immune

      • I would say soured.

      • reposted from March 2013

    • Wondering if Al has just decided, after doing all the heavy lifting, to just go it alone without a partner.

    • OPC,

      Al has many children. The one who made the comment is not a professional manager, like his one daughter, she is a holywood type and I don't know what she does for a living. He probably didn't explicitly tell her not to talk about it and it was obviously a glimmer of the frustration he was venting in private. For me at the time the statement was a confirmation that the stock was a trade and not an investment. Now, the stock is an investment, however, if they are going to continue to dilute the price becomes important. I would not be surprised if they raise the $50 million at 2.68 to 3.00 per share. 2.0-2.5 is the price at which I think the stock is a good buy. At 400 million fully diluted shares, this is a 1 billion market cap. Compare this to VVUS or ARNA which have revenue and have similar marketing dilemas regarding partners with primary care exposure vs. go it alone. The china math only works until the end of the first quarter of operations. Regarding management, its really hard to judge them with this capital structure.

    • here is my last "Brain" thought for the day...........now that i have opc 's blood boiling.lol. DONT care about dilution. stop worrying about it! really doesnt matter,seriously. what matters is this is a Blockbuster drug that will get approved and the pps will be a lot higher in the up coming years because the afrezza will get a bigger label than what was presented to us last time-fda pdufa. and this will take care of "common shares" issuing. You will also hear about "market cap" another laughable issue.imo. the analyst really have no idea of the sales growth that's coming. i can "see it" picture them pulling back at a billion,but oh what fun this is going to be for the shorts!!! mark my post.....you will see.last of all......most investors think afrezza approval will follow the same "path" as last two pdufas time lines......but what if it doesn't???JMHO

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to goodbrain005
      • nobrains pumps mnkd stock and then admits selling. her previous statement on 3/25/13. In fact, just read all of nobrains comments just in this thread. of course, then she changed her screen name....005 vs 007. I suppose someone hacked your account too? lol

        "DONT care about dilution. stop worrying about it! really doesnt matter,seriously. what matters is this is a Blockbuster drug that will get approved and the pps will be a lot higher"

        now nobrains, why would you sell a stock that's guaranteed to be much higher? keep pumping honey. keep pumping.

    • if opc isn't a "basher or a pumper"...........on a scale of 1-10 where does he fall? Answer: Zero. anyone consistantly posting on these boards has an agenda. my own is to make money and therefore, i guess that makes me a pumper, because i want to see my money/ investment grow.....as do the bashers who want to short mnkd. we need the shorts for the huge spikes to come....."the squeeze". so i'm good with both, but OPC? what, he's just a guru? lol. self proclaimed genious? i think not.JMHO

      Sentiment: Hold

    • OPC,

      continued...I don't like the fact that they are so quick to dilute at these prices. I think it calls into question the upside of the stock for this year. They may feel they have no choice because they want to have Al's capital in a back up position and would have limited cash this summer without it. Al did not put new money into the company, he converted outstanding debt into equity, but that is really the only option unless he wants to make a complete shambles of the capital structure. Imagine a company with three quarters of a billion shares prior to dime one of revenue. Al's daughter made a comment in 2011 that to effect you cannt fund these things forever. That was the tell that the family was not prepared to save the retail shareholder by plowing in more cheap capital. The fact that they are allowing the previously committed capital to be recycled is generous enough although somewhat self serving as well.

    • We had this conversation a few years ago, you have to add the amount they are paying in interest on all the bonds and the LOC to get the quarterly burn rate correct. I am assuming that they are not paying interest in cash now to AL, however.
      The CFO has made a point to publicly state they want to reduce what they owe on the LOC. I suspect that many of the potential business partners are expressing concern about coughing up a nine digit commitment prior approval while the largest shareholder is also the largest creditor. If the company owed Al 200-300 million, or 3/4 of outstanding debt at another CRL they would be in a bad position.
      I believe that there is some posturing here as well. 62 + the new 50 million would give them 112 million in cash prior to October and this is about cents on to getting them to October withou using any LOC funding.
      If the trials data is positive, they will get another 90 million in cash from warrant conversions and AL could convert his warrants and pay down the debt owed to the Mann Group, leaving this liability at just about 40 million - which is much more palitable for potential partners. Then it is a matter of the stock price as to what happens to the 114 million convertible bonds due in December. If the stock price is in the 5-7 dollar range after August prior to a partnership/funding deal, then they may be able to get the bond holders to renegotiate.
      If they do a deal the debt shouldn't be a problem and they can save the dilution. Never the less, given that the Type 2 trials are blind and that is the far bigger revenue opportunity, the type and scale of the deal really cannot be negotiated from either sides perspective until this data is fully analysed. Al may accept selling 15-25 percent of the company for 7-9 dollars per share, but in order to do so he would need to be sure that the company would be the best marketing partner. I just don't see a large pharma group with good primary care/endo exposure coughing up so much

      • 1 Reply to hytekvideo
      • hytek, i agree. i dont believe they are paying interest on the loc bit they are paying on the convertibles. i disagree that debt owed to al would be a factor under any scenario. a 100mil liability is a drop in the bucket for a startup biotech. plus, whether it's a partnership or a buyout (highly unlikely) al's equity ownership would be a bigger factor than his completely unsecured loc. i also dont think we get a large upfront pmt from a partner. I disagree that al didnt put new money in. he extended the loc $107mil which is why i find it so ridiculous that that was just done a couole months ago and now they dont want to use their least expensive financing option. the cfo is an idiot imo. whatever happened to his statement that partnership would be easier with the financing done. the guy has an excuse for EVERYTHING. If al or his family dont want to fund anymore, perhaps they should stop being so adamant in their partnership terms and they better understand their investment is unsecured as i mentioned. Statemengs like that show his family isnt the brightest either. Who would make such a stupod statement at this stage? it just emboldens the partner's terms. i agree the recycling is self serving. as i've said many times. if al wants to draw a line in the sand on terms, he better be willing to foot the bill. (sorry for lack of paragraphs. yahoo not allowing me to add them from my phone) regards,

    • Hi OPC11 and Hytekvideo,
      Thanks for your posts.
      OPC would you consider adjusting your numbers to take into account the following:
      - monies to be received from Al's recent options and
      - adjust the monthly burn from $10 mil to say $8 mil as per recent comments made by both the CEO and the COO - reduced burn rate as a result of completion of the studies?
      These adjustments would give readers a better perspective of the company's finances. More importantly it would also give an indication as to why the ATM was even filed. For me I see that filing as managements need for cash to start rehabilitating the manufacturing plant and getting equipment and staff ready for initial production. That gives readers a possible view of how management sees their chances of having the Afrezza approved and the complex chess game Al may be playing with potential buyers to ensure that he gets the best deal on any partnership arrangements. To get the best deal Al would want the message out loud and clear that he is prepared to go at this alone. He would have the ATM ready to execute plan B if partner tries to play games.
      Cheers,
      Jt

      • 3 Replies to jt1550
      • jt1550, Al Mann has wiped out some serious debt ( creating improved owners equity)....1st qtr 2012 DEBT was neg $494 mil to neg $217 4th qtr 2012......improving o.e. by $167mil which is 150% improvement from neg $277 to neg $110 for 2012.....round numbers. as speculative traders there are 3 basic ingredients of pharms to look at;

        ************************************************
        1)strength of the company.....balance sheets and income statements with cash flow,insiders ownership.
        2) an approved great product ,sales,pricing, health pros acceptance,safety,and growth.
        3) pps-price per share of stock with stock outstanding,and dilution.
        **************************************************

        JMHO

        Sentiment: Hold

      • jt1550, opc is a wolf in sheeps cloths....be careful how you read into his assessments. the facts are mnkd is burning 45mil a qtr.....see this as "net income" per qtr on the financials. Al Mann is performing a nut shell game with the financials(which is good).........all we get to see is the statements not the details. all opc is doing .....one big guess. Al Mann has wiped out some serious debt ( creating improved owners equity)....1st qtr 2012 DEBT was mil to 4th qtr 2012......improving o.e. by $167mil which is 150% improvement from to for 2012.....round numbers. As speculative traders there are 3 basic ingredients of pharms to look at;
        ************************************************
        1)strength of the company.....balance sheets and income statements with cash flow,insiders ownership.
        2) an approved great product ,sales,pricing, health pros acceptance,safety,and growth.
        3) pps-price per share of stock with stock outstanding,and dilution.
        **************************************************
        notice how i order these? last thing to worry about is number three! because one and two take care of three.Al's doing a great job. remember this........"common shares outstanding have ONLY a correlation to price per share"...........the product growth and financial strength will determine pps for MNKD! JMHO

        Sentiment: Hold

      • JT,

        When do the options expire? I dont recall. As for a lower monthly burn, I think the lower burn rate due to completed trials could be offset by increasing manufacturing capacity.

        That ATM is likely done imo. All the companies offerings as i recall were thru Jeffries, a large investment house. When two small firms enter the fray, it leads me to believe they approached mnkd w buyers already lined up. Just a guess but that's my logic.

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